A Tale of Worst and Best: Analyzing the Richard Seymour Trade

On Sunday, the New England Patriots announced they were trading five time Pro Bowler Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raider for their 2011 first round pick. On the outside, this looks like a simple trade between two storied NFL franchises. But dig a little deeper and you'll find this trade embodies what makes Oakland one of the most disfunctional team in sports, and what makes New England the best run franchise in sports history.

A lot has been said about the Detroit Lions in recent years. The Matt Millen Era was not kind to them, and their 0-16 record in 2008 probably makes them the worst franchise in football right now. But don't overlook the Raiders. Since 2002, a year they finished with an 11-5 record and lost the Super Bowl, the Raiders have consistently mismanaged their team.They have consistently mismanaged their roster. They have consistently overpaid for players. They have consistently had the most disfunctional front office in sports. And they have consistently lost. Their five loses in 2002 equals the most wins they've had since that Super Bowl season, winning five games in 2004 and 2008. And you just have to look at the last 12 months to prove it.

A year ago today, the Raiders faced the Denver Broncos in the first game of the regular season. They had finished the preseason 1-3, but had high hopes believing this would be JaMarcus Russell would have a break out year and the running game would improve with rookie Darren McFadden. They would lose that game, 41-14. Less than a month later, with their record at 1-3, with that one win coming against the eventually 2-14 Kansas City Chiefs, Raiders owner Al Davis would head coach Lane Kiffin, sparking an odd, he said-he said situation in which Davis claimed Kiffin had done as head coach the opposite of what he promised before getting hired, and Kiffin charging Davis with undermining his ability to coach by trying to make team decisions without consulting Kiffin. O-line coach Tom Cable would handle the rest of the season in an interim capacity.

Under Cable, the Raiders went 4-8, getting shut out by Atlanta and losing to the previously mentioned Chiefs along the way. Cable would take great criticism towards the end of the season for his limiting of McFadden's playing time. McFadden would finish the season with only 499 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Russell, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, would finish with 2,423 passing yards, 13 TDs, and 8 INTs in 15 games. Cable would be named full-time head coach.

The 2009 NFL Draft would again give fans high hopes, with the team having the 7th ovarall pick. The Raiders would select WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, largely considered the third best receiver in the draft but the first one selected. They would go on to select an SS, another WR, a TE, and three DEs, in rounds 3, 4, and 6. Also, the signing of Jeff Garcia had been looked at as a positive, since he would push Russell to improve, and would potentially compete for the starting job.

Since the draft, its been business as usual. Heyward-Bey went through OTAs hampered by hamstring problems. Training camp kicked off with an assistant coach injured by Tom Cable, in what has been variously reported as either Cable knocking over the chair the coach was sitting in or Cable flat-out punching the man. Jeff Garcia, who many hoped would add veteran leadership to the team and might mentor Russell along, was cut amid specualtion that Davis didn't want anything threatening Russell's position as starter. Those three DEs? Only one, third round pick Matt Shaughnessy, is still with the team. And now they've traded for DE/DT Seymour.

By contrast, New England has been the model of how to run a franchise, in any sport. Since the Raiders last went to the Super Bowl, the Patriots have been to three, won two of them, and have had double-digit wins each year. But their dominance goes far beyond that, down to a fundamental level that no other team has equaled.

The Year 2000 brought two important changes to New England. That year would be Bill Belichick's first as Pats head coach. That same year, Belichick would use the 199th pick in the draft to select Michigan QB Tom Brady, a player who struggled in his first two seasons in college, but started his last two. Individually, that season would be statistical opposites for both men. Belichick largely struggled, finishing with the same 5-11 record he had in his last season as head coach, five years earlier with the Cleveland Browns. Brady would begin the year as the fourth string QB, but would consistently improve, ending it as Drew Bledsoe's backup. It would be that improvement that would show the NFL how good the Patriots were the following season.

In the second game of 2001, a 10-3 loss to the NY Jets, Bledsoe would be hospitalized with internal bleeding, the result of a viscious hit by LB Mo Lewis. Brady, with career stats of 1-for-3 passing for 6 yards, would take over as starter. With Brady as starter, the Pats would go 11-3, winning their first Super Bowl. Brady would be named Super Bowl MVP. Over that same span to the present, the Pats have a 97-31 record, a 3-1 Super Bowl record, and the leagues only 16-0 regular season in history. With Brady lost of the season in the first game of 2008, backup Matt Cassell, who hadn't started since high school, would take over. Belichick played to his teams strengths that year, finishing 11-5 and barely missing the playoffs, thanks in large part to the resurgent Miami Dolphins, now run by Belichick's mentor, Bill Parcells.

Belichick's genius isn't just in the draft and on the field. Its in his ability to perceive talent overall, and his ability to look at the long term results. Belichick plays no favorites when it comes to his roster. His ability to see a player in his decline and get rid of him before it hurts the team is uncanny, maybe second only to the Indianapolis Colts. And his ability to get top value in trades is second to none. Despite having some of top records in the league each of the last eight years, the Pats have had a pick in the top half of the first round twice, five of their eight first round picks came via trade, and all of their first round picks have been hugely productive players for them. All except 2002 pick TE Daniel Graham are still with the team.

It is with this trade that the greatest comparison between the teams can be made. It first has to be looked at as what each team loses in the trade. Oakland loses their 2011 first round pick. A first round pick is a hot commodity for any team, doubly so for one that has been struggling. And to give up a pick two years down the road shows ownership expects to win with a team that hasn't proven itself. New England loses Richard Seymour. As stated, Seymour was a five time Pro Bowler. Despite tying a career high with 8 sacks last season, his stats have largely declined, along with his health. He injured his knee in 2005, and ended his 2008 season with a back injury before their final game. A QB or WR might be able to come back from those injuries, but when you're a DL listed a 6'6", 310lbs, and about to turn 30, injuries tend to linger. And a player that size with knee and back problems has to be a concern. His huge salary didn't help the situation.

So what does each team gain? Oakland immediatly improves their defense. They get a player that will make them better in the short term. Even with lingering injuries, Seymour is better than anyone else on the Raiders d-line. But there are no long term gains. After 30, injury or no, most NFL players skills decline. Seymour turns 30 next month. This is also the final year of his contract, and he has shown hes not afraid to hold out for more money(Seymour has already failed to show up at Raiders practice, though they claim its because he needs to work some things out with the Pats before he gets there). Even with Oaklands history of overspending, this could be Seymours only season there. By contrast, New England improves in the long term. There are no obvious holes in the team right now, so a high draft pick in 2010 isn't needed. However, with the CBA nearing its experation, young, cheap players may become an even bigger commodity after 2010. This one trade may have ensured Oakland's future failure and New England's future success for years to come.