Does Kurt Warner Belong in the Football Hall of Fame?

Just about four hours ago, Kurt Warner announced he is retiring from the NFL. Most people wouldn't argue he had a successful career, but was it Hall of Fame worthy?

Warner will end his career with many accolades. In 1999 and 2001, he was NFL MVP and a First Team All-Pro. He was a five time Pro-Bowler. He led two different teams to the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl XXXIV, and was named MVP of that game. He has the top three passing games in NFL postseason history. He is the only player to throw for 14,000 yards with two different teams, and one of two to throw 100 TD passes for two different teams. For all his great acoomplishments, though, Warner was largely overlooked in his career.

Before the 2008 season, in which he led the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl, Warner was considered a journeyman. He spent the early part of his career in the Arena Football League and NFL Europe before being named third-string QB for the St Louis Rams in 1998. The following season, he became the starter after Trent Green was injured, threw a career high 41 TD passes, and led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory. In 2000, he split time with Green after being injured himself. The 2001 season saw him return to the full time starting job and lead the team back to the Super Bowl, where they lost to the New England Patriots. This would be followed by five seasons of mediocraty.

An injury early in the 2002 season saw Warner sitting out most of the season in favor of Marc Bulger. That was followed by a terrible start in 2003, and Warner was benched for good, and was ultimately released. He would then become a placeholder for Eli Manning with the NY Giants for half a season, before being benched after a 5-4 start. Warner would again move on, this time to the Cardinals. Being named the teams starter for 2005 wouldn't last long, as an early season injury led to Josh McCown taking over. After McCown was ineffective, Warner would again be the starter, until going down to yet another injury in Week 15. With the drafting of Matt Lienart in 2006, it looked like Warner would be finished. Instead, after Lienart struggled in his first two season, Warner would be the on-again, off-again starter.

This is where the story of Warner's career takes an unexpected turn. As the teams full-time starter in 2008, Warner passed for over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, the first time he would do either since 2001. He led the Cards to Super Bowl XLIII, where they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Warner would finish 2009 with another playoff run, losing to the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round.

So how does all that mean Kurt Warner shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame?

The Argument Against:
For all of Warner's great games and great seasons, he had more seasons where he simply wasn't good. In his 12 seasons, he only started 15 or more games four times. In his other eight seasons he would start 11 or less, due to either injury or pure ineffectiveness. He topped 3,000 yards only six times, and 4,000 only three. He may have a 208 TDs and 128 INTs in his career, but that's thanks mostly to only five seasons where he threw 10 more TDs than picks. In the other seven, his best differential was 2002, when he had 21 and 18 in 11 games. The year after losing Super Bowl XXXVI, he would finish with 3 TDs and 11 picks in six starts.

Warner had some great games. When his teams made the playoffs, he could step up his game with the best of them. He led two teams to three Super Bowls, a great accomplishment on its own. But can we really say a players career is Hall of Worthy when less than half of it was even decent?

The Argument For:
Warner had a lot of bad seasons. He had a lot of seasons he didn't even finish. To say a guy should be in the Hall, though, he should be compared with other players that were voted in before him. To prove he belongs in the Hall, I only need to bring up one name:

Joe Namath

A lot has been said about Namath and how great of a football player he was. Looking at his accomplishments, they don't measure up to Warner's. It isn't even close. Sure, Namath won Super Bowl III, arguably the most important Super Bowl in NFL history, but he would never win another playoff game after that. Yes, he was the first player to pass for 4,000 yards in a season, and the only to do it with a 14 game schedule. But he only did it once, the year before the Jets made the Super Bowl, and he would never come close again. The year after the Super Bowl, Namath had his only season where he threw more TDs than picks. For his career, Namath has 173 TDs, 220 picks, and a career 50.1 completion percentage in 13 seasons. Take away his Super Bowl win, and Namath probably doesn't even come close to being a Hall of Famer. Comperably, Warner has more passing yards, more TDs, less picks, a higher completion percentage, more playoff wins, more Super Bowl appearances, and a higher passer rating. The only stat Namath has on him is more rushing TDs.

In Conclusion:
A strong arguement could be made either way for Kurt Warner. There are probably people who deserve to be in the Hall that aren't yet, and there are clearly people who shouldn't be in the Hall that are. On a personal level, the fact that Warner stocked shelves and played in the Arena League while hoping to one day get his shoty in the NFL is a great story. The fact that he got his shot and took it to three Super Bowls makes it even better. And no one can take away that, or his two MVPs, or his five or so great seasons. Whether or not he makes it into the Hall, he will be remembered as one of the games greats, even if it was for only a few seasons.

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Offensive Lines

Indianapolis Colts:
The good news: Peyton Manning wa sonly sacked 10 times during the regular season. The bad news: the holes needed to get the running game going aren't there, and Manning has been sacked 4 times in the postseason. Center Jeff Saturday and tackle Ryan Diem are getting up there in years, but I'd put the reason for the lack of a run block more on the youth of the rest of the line. Still, it is impressive that a QB who isn't very mobile was only sacked 10 times. I have to think that has more to do with Manning's ability to read a defense than strictly good blocking, but that shouldn't take away from the fact this is a strong line that still has a lot to learn. They aren't great, but they fit perfectly into the Colts gameplan.

Colts Offensive Line vs Saints Defensive Line:
The Saints have a solid line, but it isn't the strength of their defense. If they get any sacks at all, it probably won't be from their linemen. The Colts linemen also benefit from the fact that they can practice against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis all season. They should be able to have solid protection against the Saints front, and if they need to run in short situations, they've shown they are capable of hitting their blocks..

New Orleans Saints:
Like the Colts, this is a line with some youth on it. The line overall seems to be better than the Colts, though. They know where to be to give Drew Brees a passing window, and even though the Saints tend to run to the outside more, they can open interior holes pretty well, too. Brees may have been sacked 20 times this year, but that's about average for his career.

Saints Offensive Line vs Colts Defensive Line:
The Saints line will face a huge test in trying to stop Mathis and Freeney. You have to wonder if Jonathan Stinchcomb, at 30-years-old, has the footspeed to get a block on the Colts speed-based defense. He may not really have to, though. The Saints are very good at running screens and draws. A few at the right time could be enough to slow down the Colts line. The other advantage they have is Freeney will be playing with a sprained ankle suffered last week against the Jets. It won't hold him out, but it should slow him down and possibly limit his playing time.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Receivers/Tight Ends

Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts are built differently than other teams. Where most teams have a #1, #2, #3, etc receiver, the Colts seem to have a #1, followed by a group of #2's. Even with Anthony Gonzalez going down early in the season, the Colts passing machine never missed a step. Rookie Austin Collie and two-year vet Pierre Garcon not only picked up their own game to compensate, but they now lead the team in receptions and receiving yards in the postseason. Reggie Wayne is still target #1, though, as he should be. The receiving numbers are skewed due to Wayne being shut down by Darrelle Revis in the AFC Championship game. At tight end, the Colts have the best of both worlds. The prototypical blocking end of years passed is being replaced by tall, play-making ends who don't block well. Somehow, they found themselves with a hybrid of both. At 6' 3", Clark is one of the teams tallest receivers, and at 252 lbs, he is just 40 less than the Colts smallest lineman. Somehow, with all that size, he finds ways to make big plays downfield. This year, he had his first 100-reception and first 1,000-yard season. He also tied Wayne with a team-leading 10 TDs this season.

Colts Receivers vs Saints Defensive Backs:
The beauty of having a group of #2 receivers is that defenses can't match up. The Jets had an answer for Reggie Wayne and contained Dallas Clark, but they couldn't stop Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Where most teams match up LBs and safeties with a teams lower receivers, the Colts have too much talent for that kind of gameplan. As long as they can stay on the same page as Peyton Manning, any receiver on this team can blow up for a big game at any time.

New Orleans Saints:
Saints receivers aren't flashy, they just make big plays. Four members of the Saints receiving corps have receptions over 50 yards. Those same four also have over 500 yards receiving, each. What the Saints don't have is a dominant receiver that Drew Brees can keep going to. After Marques Colston's team-leading 70 receptions, six players have between 35 and 51 catches each. For a team that relies on passing to score and running to drain the clock with a lead, spreading the ball is good. However, with Colston shut down by Darrelle Revis in Week 4, Brees was forced to throw a lot of dump-off passes, couldn't top 200 yards, and the team only scored 10 offensive points. I would be concerned if the loss of one offensive weapon had that much effect on my team.

Saints Receivers vs Colts Defensive Backs:
Thankfully for the Saints, the Colts don't have a Darrelle Revis-calibre corner. Their receivers may not be the tallest in the league, but they have speed on their side. They use that speed to their advantage, but lack the ability to make plays to get open if you take that away from them. One receiver may have a big game against the fast Colts secondary, but as a group, they'll be limited.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Running Backs

Indianapolis Colts:
Do the Colts even use running backs anymore? Or have they given over completely to the "new NFL" of passing at all times? No, they have running backs. You wouldn't know it from their running game, ranked last in the NFL. Where a 1,000 yard rusher used to be typical on a Super Bowl team, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown barely passed 1,100 yards combined. Neither player topped 3.9 yards per carry. While Addai topped 1,000 yards his first two seasons, he seams to have lost his escapability since missing four games last season. Brown is in his rookie season, and while he's shown some elusiveness when he gets the ball, he isn't polished enough take many carries away from Addai. If there is a weakness on the Colts offense, this is it.

Colts Runners vs Saints Linebackers:
Yards are there for the taking in the running game. Lacking spead to outrun defenders will hurt the Colts, as the Saints LBs are known more for their tackling and backfield pursuit than being able to run down a ball carrier. If they can get through the defensive line up the middle, they may be able to catch a defender out of position. Otherwise, it looks like a tough day to be a Colts RB. 

New Orleans Saints:
The Saints are known for their passing game, but they can run the ball almost as well. Their offense was first in the league this year, and that is thanks to their 6th ranked rush offense as much as their 4th ranked passing game. Like the Colts, they didn't have a 1,000 yard rusher, either. Instead, they seem to have found the perfect balance in the backfield. Pierre Thomas has clearly emerged as the #1 back, with Mike Bell providing short yardage and the ability to break a long run if he gets free. Reggie Bush is coming on more and more with each game. He may contribute more on special teams so far, but he has also shown himself to be an excellent change-of-pace back. Between the three of them, they totaled 16 TDs, split evenly between them.

Saints Runners vs Colts Linebackers:
What the Saints have in the backfield is speed. They'll need it against a fast Colts defense. Sticking with Thomas as the feature back and mixing Bush in every fifth play or so could be enough to wear down a small and, in some places, aging Colts linebacker corps.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Quarterbacks

Indianapolis Colts:
How do you go against Peyton Manning in any situation? With a group of mostly young, inexperienced receivers this season, he had his highest career completion percentage, his second highest yardage total, and tied his second highest TD total. With barely a running game, he has almost single handedly carried the team this season. In this year's playoffs, he has already beaten a tough Baltimore Raven defense and put up almost 400 yards, 3 TDs, and a 123.6 passer rating against the NY Jets #1 ranked passing defense. Manning has the pure talent and off-field dedication to adjust to any defense, find its weakness, and exploit it. Against the Jets, he threw out the idea of passing to Reggie Wayne, who was blanketed by Darrelle Revis, and hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon for over 100 yards each. Sure, his playoff record is only 9-8, but he does have a Super Bowl ring on his resume. With a Super Bowl on the line, I can't think of many QBs in NFL history I'd rather have on my team.

New Orleans Saints:
Drew Brees was once considered a deviation from the norm at QB. He's too short, he's too small, he can't make plays because he can't see over the linemen. If you want proof, look no further than 2005. After passing for a then-career high 3,576 yards, the San Diego Chargers let Brees go to free agency in favor of Philip Rivers. Brees responded in 2006 by passing for 4,418 yards and 26 TDs with the Saints, earning a spot on the NFC Pro Bowl team. This year saw a drop off in yardage as he had his lowest yardage total as a Saint, due mostly to being rested in Week 17. However, he tied last season's career high for TDs, had one of his lowest years for picks, and also had a career high 109.6 passer rating. Manning may be the best at leading his team on the field, but I doubt there is a QB that works harder to be the best than Brees. Still, with all his great play for the Chargers and Saints, this is his first Super Bowl, and the first for New Orleans. He'll be going against a team that still has key players on it from their last Super Bowl, both on offense and defense. Brees isn't the type to fall to pressure, though. Even in the Saint's loss to Dallas, their first loss this season, he threw for almost 300 yards, completed 64.4% of his passes, threw only 1 pick, and had an 81.5 passer rating. The following week, in their loss to Tampa Bay, Brees completed 32 of 37 passes and had a 104.7 passer rating. No matter which team loses, it probably won't be the result of their QB's play.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Wrap-up

It was a tough weekend for rookies and old people, and now the Super Bowl is set:

Indianapolis Colts 30 - NY Jets 17
To look at this game and try to analyze it would be impossible if taken as a whole. The fact of the matter is, this was really two diffferent games. One the Jets won, 17-6, and the other the Colts won, 24-0. For the first 27:49, the Jets controlled every part of the game. They kept Peyton Manning out of the end zone. They made big plays. They controlled the ball. Then, with 2:11 left in the first half, the Colts put together their first TD drive of the game. The Jets still led, 17-14, but things seemed to change on that drive. They seemed to suddenly be less agressive, both on offense and defense. Their blitz packages, which sacked Manning on back-to-back offensive plays, suddenly weren't getting through. The deep passes that led to both TDs were replaced with short throws. The loss of Shonn Greene at the start of the second half greatly hurt the running game. Manning used the lack of depth in the Jets secondary to hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on pass after pass. The Jets offense played well, but not good enough to win. Their defense played dominant football to start the game, but gave up too many plays and too much yardage in the second half. The Colts, as an entire team, made the correct adjustments throughout the game, and won a game they clearly deserved to win.