New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -5
o/u: 56.5
Over the past two weeks, I've compared the positions of these two teams head-to-head, and the Saints came out on top, 5-4. In key positions, the Saints match up better against the Colts than vice versa. Still, analysts have been praising the Colts the last two weeks like they won every game by huge magins and dominated every game. If you believe Tony Dungy and most of the other experts, the Colts have already won. That simply isn't true. Of the Colts 14 wins, four came by a field goal or less, and seven came by 7 points or less. The Colts scored more than 20 points 10 times in their wins, while allowing more than 20 four times. The Saints, on the other hand, won by a field goal or less only twice, and 7 points or less only three times. They may have given up more than 20 points eight times in winning games, but they scored more than 20 points in all of their 13 wins. Dungy went as far as to say he would be shocked if the Colts won by less than two TDs. Personally, I think that is a completely rediculous statement, considering the Colts only won by 14 points or more five times, including the postseason, Before the Divisional Round they hadn't done it since Week 7 against the Rams. Does that mean it won't happen? No, the Super Bowl has had a long tradition of defying expectations. I'll be expecting a Saints victory.
Pick: Saints 31 - Colts 20
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Coaches
Indianapolis Colts:
Jim Caldwell may be considered a rookie head coach, but that doesn't really mean anything in this situation. He's been with the Colts since 2002, and the majority of his assistants have been with the team for at least two seasons. Some have been there for over a decade. Caldwell spent his first three seasons as QB coach, working with Peyton Manning. After that, he was named assistant head coach in 2005. There are probably only a handful of people in the organization that are better prepared to handle an offense centered on Manning better than Caldwell. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is one of the new additions to the teams since Caldwell took over, and he has instilled a bend-don't-break style to the defense. The team may be around the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, but they're 8th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 per game. The fact that almost every coach on the staff was with the team when they won their last Super Bowl will be a big boost this week.
New Orleans Saints:
Sean Payton is in his third year as head coach of the Saints, and he is already among the best head coaches in franchise history. His experience as the quarterbacks coach with the Dallas Cowboys, who had a revolving door at QB for most of his time there, made him almost a perfect choice for a team that had a running game on the decline when he took over, but a passing game ready to break loose. Under Payton, Drew Brees has had his three highest seasons for TDs, and three of his four highest in passing yards. He also came just a few yards shy of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record when he finished the season with 5,069. The Saints also finished first in total offense this season, putting up 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff doesn't have the tenure of the Colts coaches. All joined the team in 2005 or later. The one thing they have going for them is that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams comes from a season with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he had to face Manning and the Colts twice, winning one.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Jim Caldwell may be considered a rookie head coach, but that doesn't really mean anything in this situation. He's been with the Colts since 2002, and the majority of his assistants have been with the team for at least two seasons. Some have been there for over a decade. Caldwell spent his first three seasons as QB coach, working with Peyton Manning. After that, he was named assistant head coach in 2005. There are probably only a handful of people in the organization that are better prepared to handle an offense centered on Manning better than Caldwell. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is one of the new additions to the teams since Caldwell took over, and he has instilled a bend-don't-break style to the defense. The team may be around the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, but they're 8th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 per game. The fact that almost every coach on the staff was with the team when they won their last Super Bowl will be a big boost this week.
New Orleans Saints:
Sean Payton is in his third year as head coach of the Saints, and he is already among the best head coaches in franchise history. His experience as the quarterbacks coach with the Dallas Cowboys, who had a revolving door at QB for most of his time there, made him almost a perfect choice for a team that had a running game on the decline when he took over, but a passing game ready to break loose. Under Payton, Drew Brees has had his three highest seasons for TDs, and three of his four highest in passing yards. He also came just a few yards shy of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record when he finished the season with 5,069. The Saints also finished first in total offense this season, putting up 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff doesn't have the tenure of the Colts coaches. All joined the team in 2005 or later. The one thing they have going for them is that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams comes from a season with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he had to face Manning and the Colts twice, winning one.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts:
First of all, congratulations to Matt Stover for being the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl. With Adam Vinatieri being held out after injuring his leg during the season, Stover came in and did an excellent job as his replacement. He was perfect on extra points and made 9 of 11 field goals in the regular season, which isn't great, but is good enough considering the Colts don't kick many field goals. In the playoffs, he is a perfect 5 for 5 so far. Punting has been fairly strong, as well. Rookie Pat McAfee is averaging a third of his punts burying opponents inside their own 20, in both the playoffs and regular season. One thing they won't have going for them this week is playing in a dome. With Sun Life Stadium being open air, they'll have to adjust for wind instead of the stillness indoors. One of Stover's two missed field goals this year came outdoors against Houston, His one other outdoor attempt, of course, was good. The return game needs to improve though. Punt returner TJ Rushing was forced to fair catch half of the punts he fielded, and averaged less than 6 yards per return. If the Saints can get moving but have to kick, not being able to get off a good return could hurt. Kick returner Chad Simpson hasn't always been great, but he does have one return for a TD this season.
New Orleans Saints:
Like Stover, Garrett Hartley replaced another player, John Carney, who was cut for missing too many kicks. Hartley has done well, but he has two misses of his own, and his only attempt longer than 40 yards was one of them. Punter Thomas Morstead attempted less punts than McAfee, and has a lower percentage of punts inside the 20, but he averages only about half a yard per punt less, and both have a long of 60 yards. Like the Colts, the Saints kickers will also have to face playing away from a dome. In two games played outdoors, though, Hartley is 5 for 6, with his only miss coming on five attempts against the Redskins in his first game. He also missed one extra point, but is perfect in the playoffs. On punt returns, Reggie Bush had a fairly poor season, averaging less than 5 yards per return while fair catching only a quarter of punts fielded. He has come on strong in the playoffs, though, with a return for a touchdown. Take away that 83 yarder, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per. Not great, but almost double his regular season output. On kick returns, Courtney Roby had a strong 27.5 yards per during the season, which has gone down to 25,7 in the postseason. Like Simpson, he also has a return for a score. Across from him, Pierre Thomas is almost as dangerous, with one return for 40 yards in the playoffs.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
First of all, congratulations to Matt Stover for being the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl. With Adam Vinatieri being held out after injuring his leg during the season, Stover came in and did an excellent job as his replacement. He was perfect on extra points and made 9 of 11 field goals in the regular season, which isn't great, but is good enough considering the Colts don't kick many field goals. In the playoffs, he is a perfect 5 for 5 so far. Punting has been fairly strong, as well. Rookie Pat McAfee is averaging a third of his punts burying opponents inside their own 20, in both the playoffs and regular season. One thing they won't have going for them this week is playing in a dome. With Sun Life Stadium being open air, they'll have to adjust for wind instead of the stillness indoors. One of Stover's two missed field goals this year came outdoors against Houston, His one other outdoor attempt, of course, was good. The return game needs to improve though. Punt returner TJ Rushing was forced to fair catch half of the punts he fielded, and averaged less than 6 yards per return. If the Saints can get moving but have to kick, not being able to get off a good return could hurt. Kick returner Chad Simpson hasn't always been great, but he does have one return for a TD this season.
New Orleans Saints:
Like Stover, Garrett Hartley replaced another player, John Carney, who was cut for missing too many kicks. Hartley has done well, but he has two misses of his own, and his only attempt longer than 40 yards was one of them. Punter Thomas Morstead attempted less punts than McAfee, and has a lower percentage of punts inside the 20, but he averages only about half a yard per punt less, and both have a long of 60 yards. Like the Colts, the Saints kickers will also have to face playing away from a dome. In two games played outdoors, though, Hartley is 5 for 6, with his only miss coming on five attempts against the Redskins in his first game. He also missed one extra point, but is perfect in the playoffs. On punt returns, Reggie Bush had a fairly poor season, averaging less than 5 yards per return while fair catching only a quarter of punts fielded. He has come on strong in the playoffs, though, with a return for a touchdown. Take away that 83 yarder, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per. Not great, but almost double his regular season output. On kick returns, Courtney Roby had a strong 27.5 yards per during the season, which has gone down to 25,7 in the postseason. Like Simpson, he also has a return for a score. Across from him, Pierre Thomas is almost as dangerous, with one return for 40 yards in the playoffs.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Backs
Indianapolis Colts:
Quick, name two members of the Colts secondary. If you said Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, you're wrong. Sanders is injured, as usual, leaving Melvin Bullitt to take his place. At the corners, there's Kelvin Hayden and rookie Jerraud Powers. Between them, they have 5 picks, four belonging to Bethea. The fact that they had the 14th ranked pass defense is due more to the defense they apply than the abilities of their secondary. The Cover 2 is designed to force short passes and not give up a big play. A decent group of corners and safeties can run it effectively, and that's what they've gone. The group isn't great, but it can run a Cover 2 effectively.
Colts Defensive Backs vs Saints Receivers:
The Saints can and will spread the ball around, so the Colts need to do the same with their secondary. Running a zone-heavy gameplan, with corners dropping back rather than staying in the flats, can stop quick passes. Bethea over the top to one side of the field can take away much of that side. The one concern then becomes the side covered by Bullitt. I'd imagine that side will be victimized early, until the Colts can adjust.
New Orleans Saints:
The typical "sit back and wait" gameplan of the Saints defense may be tested this week. Usually, they force the other team to pass by building up a lead, then take advantage of mistakes. The Colts pass a lot anyway, and Peyton Manning doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Good for the Saints then that Darren Sharper doesn't always need mistakes to happen to make a play. He tied a career high with nine picks this year, and set a new career high by returning three for TDs. He'll mostly be used to help out Tracy Porter, who is young and inexperienced, but still managed 4 picks of his own. Across from him is Jabari Greer, who totaled another 2 picks and 13 passes defensed. The only hole in coverage may be SS Roman Harper, but he's used more for his abilities as a run stopper.
Saints Defensive Backs vs Colts Receivers:
The Saints will need to find a way to stop Peyton Manning, pure and simple. If they can cover his receivers, he has nowhere to go. That's no easy task. Even if they can cover Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon, they still have to worry about Dallas Clark. Zone defense will be the key for the Saints, too. There aren't many safeties in the NFL as good as Sharper at disappearing in their zone. If they can find a way to confuse Manning by disguising coverages, even just a little, they can shut down the passing game enough to win.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Quick, name two members of the Colts secondary. If you said Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, you're wrong. Sanders is injured, as usual, leaving Melvin Bullitt to take his place. At the corners, there's Kelvin Hayden and rookie Jerraud Powers. Between them, they have 5 picks, four belonging to Bethea. The fact that they had the 14th ranked pass defense is due more to the defense they apply than the abilities of their secondary. The Cover 2 is designed to force short passes and not give up a big play. A decent group of corners and safeties can run it effectively, and that's what they've gone. The group isn't great, but it can run a Cover 2 effectively.
Colts Defensive Backs vs Saints Receivers:
The Saints can and will spread the ball around, so the Colts need to do the same with their secondary. Running a zone-heavy gameplan, with corners dropping back rather than staying in the flats, can stop quick passes. Bethea over the top to one side of the field can take away much of that side. The one concern then becomes the side covered by Bullitt. I'd imagine that side will be victimized early, until the Colts can adjust.
New Orleans Saints:
The typical "sit back and wait" gameplan of the Saints defense may be tested this week. Usually, they force the other team to pass by building up a lead, then take advantage of mistakes. The Colts pass a lot anyway, and Peyton Manning doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Good for the Saints then that Darren Sharper doesn't always need mistakes to happen to make a play. He tied a career high with nine picks this year, and set a new career high by returning three for TDs. He'll mostly be used to help out Tracy Porter, who is young and inexperienced, but still managed 4 picks of his own. Across from him is Jabari Greer, who totaled another 2 picks and 13 passes defensed. The only hole in coverage may be SS Roman Harper, but he's used more for his abilities as a run stopper.
Saints Defensive Backs vs Colts Receivers:
The Saints will need to find a way to stop Peyton Manning, pure and simple. If they can cover his receivers, he has nowhere to go. That's no easy task. Even if they can cover Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon, they still have to worry about Dallas Clark. Zone defense will be the key for the Saints, too. There aren't many safeties in the NFL as good as Sharper at disappearing in their zone. If they can find a way to confuse Manning by disguising coverages, even just a little, they can shut down the passing game enough to win.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Linebackers
Indianapolis Colts:
No one will ever tell you the Colts have a dominant group of linebackers. Do they have a nose for the ball? Sure. Clint Sessions recorded 103 tackles, and Gary Brackett had 99 of his own. But between those two and Philip Wheeler, they total only 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. A Cover 2 defense relies on LBs to drop into coverage and protect the middle of the field against the passing game. They also need to be able to recognize the run at the same time. The Colt's LBs just aren't good enough at doing both.
Colts Linebackers vs Saints Running Backs:
The Saints like to get to the outside, which is good if they can get to Wheeler's side. He is the least experienced of the LBs, and Brackett and Sessions don't have the block shedding ability to keep the Saint's runners out of the secondary. In the passing game, where the Saints like to hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield, the Colts have the ability to apply solid coverage. If the Saints shy away from the short passes and go to the run, it could be a long day for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints:
If the Colts don't have a dominant group of linebackers, then the Saints have a slightly dominant one. Johnathan Vilma may be the only one who topped 70 tackles, with 110, but that is what you want in a middle linebacker. He also finshed the season with 2 sacks, 3 picks, and 8 passes defensed, which is about as good as the Colts as a whole. On the outsides, Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita combined for a sack, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles of their own. The fact that the Saints played against more passing plays than running plays due to their big early leads probably skews the tackle numbers a bit, as well.
Saints Linebackers vs Colts Running Backs:
Is this even a competition? The Colts have a terrible running game. While Donald Brown may be able to gain a few extra yards if he can keep running straight ahead, Joseph Addai doesn't have the escapability and speed to get to the outside that he used to. Don't look for the Colt's runners to break any long ones, look for them to be tied up quickly by the Saint's linebackers.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
No one will ever tell you the Colts have a dominant group of linebackers. Do they have a nose for the ball? Sure. Clint Sessions recorded 103 tackles, and Gary Brackett had 99 of his own. But between those two and Philip Wheeler, they total only 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. A Cover 2 defense relies on LBs to drop into coverage and protect the middle of the field against the passing game. They also need to be able to recognize the run at the same time. The Colt's LBs just aren't good enough at doing both.
Colts Linebackers vs Saints Running Backs:
The Saints like to get to the outside, which is good if they can get to Wheeler's side. He is the least experienced of the LBs, and Brackett and Sessions don't have the block shedding ability to keep the Saint's runners out of the secondary. In the passing game, where the Saints like to hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield, the Colts have the ability to apply solid coverage. If the Saints shy away from the short passes and go to the run, it could be a long day for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints:
If the Colts don't have a dominant group of linebackers, then the Saints have a slightly dominant one. Johnathan Vilma may be the only one who topped 70 tackles, with 110, but that is what you want in a middle linebacker. He also finshed the season with 2 sacks, 3 picks, and 8 passes defensed, which is about as good as the Colts as a whole. On the outsides, Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita combined for a sack, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles of their own. The fact that the Saints played against more passing plays than running plays due to their big early leads probably skews the tackle numbers a bit, as well.
Saints Linebackers vs Colts Running Backs:
Is this even a competition? The Colts have a terrible running game. While Donald Brown may be able to gain a few extra yards if he can keep running straight ahead, Joseph Addai doesn't have the escapability and speed to get to the outside that he used to. Don't look for the Colt's runners to break any long ones, look for them to be tied up quickly by the Saint's linebackers.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Monday, February 1, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Lines
Indianapolis Colts:
Normally this would be open and shut. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best defensive ends in football. Since he entered the league, no one has more sacks and tackles for loss than Freeney. Both players have incredible speed off the ball, and are two of the best in the league at anticipating snap counts. Unfortunately, the Colts announced last night that Freeney has a torn ligament in what was previously thought to be a minor ankle sprain. He's currently listed as questionable, and he may not even play. Even if he does, his speed and mobility will be severly diminished. The upside is that his backup, Raheem Brock, may not have Freeney's speed, but he he does come pretty close to his playmaking ability. On the interior, tackles Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson may not be the run stuffers you'd like to see in the middle, but at 310 lbs each, they are perfectly competent at their position. Unfortunately, competent may not be good enough against Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.
Colts Defensive Line vs Saints Offensive Line:
With neither team having a true noise advantage from playing at home, the Colts have the advantage on the outside, while the Saints have it in the interior. Jonathan Stinchcomb, the second-oldest member of the line behind center Jonathan Goodwin, will be tasked with stopping Mathis's speed all day. On the other side, Jermon Bushrod will have to be working on his footwork all week to stop the speed/size combo of Freeney and Brock. On the inside, the Saints guards and center are more than equal the size of the Colts tackles. It won't be easy for them, especially if the Colts start sending blitzes up the middle, but it shouldn't be a problem they can't overcome.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have almost the same problem as the Colts, except they already know DE Charles Grant won't be playing. Grant isn't as big a hit as Freeney is, so while Bobby McCray may be smaller, he should be able to at least do a decent job as a replacement. The big player on the line is on the other side, as Will Smith put up a career high in sacks this year with 13, along with three forced fumbles and his first career interception. On the interior, the Saints don't match up with the Colts at all. Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele may eaqual the size of Muir and Johnson, but they have half the talent. The fact that the Saints rush defense finished the season better than the Colts is due more to the abilities of their linebackers than their linemen.
Saints Defensive Line vs Colts Offensive Line:
Smith may be the only lineman who could have trouble this week. He'll be going against tackle Ryan Diem, the largest member of the Colts line. The rest of the line is undersized, a weakness that shows up in the fact that their running game is ranked last in the NFL. When your team passes as much as the Colts do, run blocking doesn't matter too much. When your QB can read a defense as well as Peyton Manning does, pass blocking doesn't matter much, either. So when you have a mostly mediocre defensive line going against a mostly mediocre offensive line with the best QB in the league, line-play takes a bit of a backseat to everything else.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Normally this would be open and shut. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best defensive ends in football. Since he entered the league, no one has more sacks and tackles for loss than Freeney. Both players have incredible speed off the ball, and are two of the best in the league at anticipating snap counts. Unfortunately, the Colts announced last night that Freeney has a torn ligament in what was previously thought to be a minor ankle sprain. He's currently listed as questionable, and he may not even play. Even if he does, his speed and mobility will be severly diminished. The upside is that his backup, Raheem Brock, may not have Freeney's speed, but he he does come pretty close to his playmaking ability. On the interior, tackles Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson may not be the run stuffers you'd like to see in the middle, but at 310 lbs each, they are perfectly competent at their position. Unfortunately, competent may not be good enough against Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.
Colts Defensive Line vs Saints Offensive Line:
With neither team having a true noise advantage from playing at home, the Colts have the advantage on the outside, while the Saints have it in the interior. Jonathan Stinchcomb, the second-oldest member of the line behind center Jonathan Goodwin, will be tasked with stopping Mathis's speed all day. On the other side, Jermon Bushrod will have to be working on his footwork all week to stop the speed/size combo of Freeney and Brock. On the inside, the Saints guards and center are more than equal the size of the Colts tackles. It won't be easy for them, especially if the Colts start sending blitzes up the middle, but it shouldn't be a problem they can't overcome.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have almost the same problem as the Colts, except they already know DE Charles Grant won't be playing. Grant isn't as big a hit as Freeney is, so while Bobby McCray may be smaller, he should be able to at least do a decent job as a replacement. The big player on the line is on the other side, as Will Smith put up a career high in sacks this year with 13, along with three forced fumbles and his first career interception. On the interior, the Saints don't match up with the Colts at all. Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele may eaqual the size of Muir and Johnson, but they have half the talent. The fact that the Saints rush defense finished the season better than the Colts is due more to the abilities of their linebackers than their linemen.
Saints Defensive Line vs Colts Offensive Line:
Smith may be the only lineman who could have trouble this week. He'll be going against tackle Ryan Diem, the largest member of the Colts line. The rest of the line is undersized, a weakness that shows up in the fact that their running game is ranked last in the NFL. When your team passes as much as the Colts do, run blocking doesn't matter too much. When your QB can read a defense as well as Peyton Manning does, pass blocking doesn't matter much, either. So when you have a mostly mediocre defensive line going against a mostly mediocre offensive line with the best QB in the league, line-play takes a bit of a backseat to everything else.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
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