On Friday I predicted Tim Tebow would carry Florida to victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by shear strength of will. My gut said that's what would happen, and I made my prediction on my gut. My logic said something very different: Alabama's D was too good, that they'd practice for Tebow all week, and they'd stop him. Apparently, I wasn't the only one who didn't listen to logic.
If you want to know who the biggest and worst believer in Tim Tebow was, look no further than Florida's sideline. No one has had a better view of Tebow's triumphs than head coach Urban Meyer. No one believed in him more. And why shouldn't he? The analysts and experts bought into it, so why shouldn't the man who has been there for all of Tebow's big plays? Because head coaches are supposed to be better than that.
The opening quarter should tell you all you need to know about Tebow's performance against Alabama's D. In Florida's first drive, he was 1/3 for 2 yards. After the second, he was 5/10 for 39 yards, but had only 9 yards on 3 rush attempts. Alabama was keying in on him, and Urban Meyer wasn't doing anything about it.
With Tebow so far held under wraps, you might think a team would try going a little more conventional in their offensive choices. Call some handoffs, give the ball to someone else, then go back to a Tebow-heavy offense once things got moving. In the entire first half, only two plays had Tebow giving the ball to someone else, one in the first quarter, and one in the second.
At halftime, Florida was still in the game. They only trailed 19-13, and there was plenty of time to make adjustments. Get the ball in someone elses hands, and get the running game started. Coming out of the gate, Chris Rainey got the ball on the second play of the half, but lost a yard. It would be the last time a running play would go to anyone other than Tebow.
Coming into this game, Alabama had one of the best defenses in the country. They had already beaten four ranked teams. Those four teams averaged 11.25 points per game against 'Bama's D. In 44 games against other teams, they combined to average 28.7 points per. Alabama was holding ranked teams to 17 points less than they scored against other opponents. This week, they just had to stop one player. Clearly, Urban Meyer would have to do something about that.
When playing against a team that doesn't have any obvious holes in their defense, the best option is to spread the ball around early. Find one thing that works, and keep doing it until the defense can stop you. That should have been Florida's plan. Tebow running up the middle doesn't work? Try a bubble screen. That doesn't work? Option. Stopped again? Throw the ball. Instead, Meyer's game plan seemed to consist of "Throw the ball, then have Tebow run it." When that didn't work, the plan seemed to change to "Have Tebow run the ball a little more." The results are obvious to see: Tebow carried the ball 10 times for 63 yards, threw the ball 25 times for 247 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick, and no one else had more than two rushes. Only four plays the entire game were put into the hands of someone other than Tim Tebow. And the result was Florida's first loss of the season.
So what does this all mean? Well, obviously it means Florida lost to Alabama, 32-13. After 60 minutes of football, gone were Florida's undefeated season and BCS title hopes. Thats the short-term outcome. The bigger concern is what happens next season. This was Tebow's last season in college. If I were a Florida fan, and I just saw my team lose after giving the ball to a graduating senior on 45 of 49 offensive plays, I'd be worried about what comes next. Meyer has to figure out how to keep this team successful with Tebow next year. A lot of people think Meyer is a great coach, and cite his two National Championships as their proof. But those championship were won on Tebow's back. If Tebow couldn't get the job done, and Meyer kept going back to him, what does that say about his ability as a coach?
In Notre Dame's coaching search, Urban Meyer's name keep coming up. He has said he'll be in Florida until they don't want him any more. Without Tim Tebow as his QB, the time when Florida doesn't want him any more could be sooner, rather than later.
