Saturday, October 10, 2009

NFL Week 5 Preview

Oakland Raiders @ NY Giants
Spread: Giants, -14.5
o/u: 37.5
The Raiders are bad. We knew this already. Now, without Darren McFadden to run the ball so they don't have to throw it, the Raiders are worse. After the freak plantar fasciitis injury to Eli Manning last week, the Giants aren't sure he can play. But even if he can't, David Carr is an underrated QB as his backup, and Brandon Jacobs has come alive a bit in the last couple of weeks.
Pick: Gaints 27 - Raiders 6

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers, -3.5
o/u: 37.5
The Panthers are winless and the Redskins have already lost to the Lions this year. In what might actually be a good game between bad teams, the Panthers have a chance to put the season back on track. Coming off the bye week helps the Jags, and if they can finally wake up their running game, Jason Campbell will probably make enough mistakes for the Skins to give Carolina the win.
Pick: Panthers 20 - Redskins 13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens, -8.5
o/u: 42
Don't sleep on the Bengals this year. Carson Palmer is finally starting to look like his old, healthy self again, and both teams come into this game 3-1, leading their division. With Baltimore's rush defense 1st in the league and their pass defense 23rd, that healthy arm will help alot. The problem for Cincinnati will come on the other side of the ball, where Baltimore's 3rd ranked offense will move the ball against the Bengal's 17th ranked D. The score in this one will probably be high, and it will be closer than the spread indicates.
Pick: Ravens 28 - Bengals 24

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills, -6
o/u: 40.5
With each passing week, the Browns look like they are trying to repeat the Lions 0-16 performance of last season. Now they've traded away arguably their most talented played, and biggest deep threat. Derek Anderson may have a big arm, but with no one to throw to, will it matter? Now they have to go into one of the NFL's most hostile environments and take on a Bills team trying to claw their way back into the AFC East picture. And with Willis McGahee back against the leagues worst rush defense, the Bills should win this one easily.
Pick: Buffalo 24 - Browns 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles, -15
o/u: 42
The Bucs are bad. Getting shut out by the Giants proved that. Now they have to face the Eagles, who also have a very good D, and are expected to have Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook this week. The onlt question now is can McNabb put up Kevin Kolb-like numbers?
Pick: Eagles 34 - Buccaneers 10

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Cowboys, -8
o/u: 42.5
Dallas's season has been marked by wins against winless teams and losses to undefeated teams. The Chiefs are still winless this year, and don't look to be improving any time soon. Dallas will be without #1 receiver Roy Williams this week, but the other receivers have shown they are more than able to pick up the slack for him. The last meeting between these teams, four years ago, was a shootout that totaled 938 yards of offense. Neither one of these teams is who they were four years ago, and it will show in the final score.
Pick: Cowboys 24 - Chiefs 10

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Steelers, -10.5
o/u: 44
Last week, the Steelers found their running game. Detroit still hasn't found their rush defense. Thats all you need to know about this one.
Pick: Steelers 28 - Lions 10

Minnesota Vikings @ St Louis Rams
Spread: Vikings, -10
o/u: 41
There is still some life in Brett Favre's 40 year old arm. Where there isn't life is the Rams offense. Their defense may be improving week-to-week, but they aren't the Bears of a few years ago. They need the offense to put up points, and they haven't been able to.
Pick: Vikings 24 - Rams 10

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers, -2.5
This looks like it might be Sunday's best game. The 49ers are slowly trying to pull away in their division, while Atlanta is just trying to stay close behind New Orleans. And while Atlanta has improved from last years playoff performance, putting up impresive offensive numbers, they've also given up big numbers on D. The 49ers have looked like an all around well-coached team, and those coaches will take agvantage of what Atlanta's defense gives them.
Pick: 49ers 28 - Falcons 17

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahwaks
Spread: Seahawks, -1
o/u: 44
A lot of people seem to be thinking this game will hinge on Matt Hasselbeck. If he plays, Seattle wins, if he doesn't, they lose. But what no one is paying attention to is Seattles D. Over the last two games, they've given up 600 yards and 5 TDs through the air. David Garrard may not be Jay Cutler or Peyton Manning, but hes experienced enough to have a solid game against that defense.
Pick: Jaguars 31 - Seahawks 20

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Spread: Patriots, -3
o/u: 41
As I pointed out last week, the Broncos have quietly put together the leagues best defense. Now they have to stop Tom Brady, who is improving week-to-week since looking lost and confused the first two weeks. However, he still has some hurdles to overcome, like his lack of chemistry with his receivers. Thats what will give the Broncos the edge and the win in this game.
Pick: Broncos 28 - Patriots 21

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals, -5.5
o/u: 50
This game could be an absolute shootout. Or, Houston could have a blowout win. It all depends on which Arizona team shows up this week: the one that blew out Jacksonville? Or the one that struggled against the Colts and 49ers? On the other side, Houston hasn't looked like the model of consistency, either. Still, with the 3rd worst passing defense taking on Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, who leads the league in receptions and receiving yards since 2008, I have to give this to Houston.
Pick: Texans 31 - Cardinals 24

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Spread: Colts, -3.5
o/u: 45.5
Tennessee is 0-4, and has the 2nd worst pass D in the league. The only thing that will stop Peyton Manning is when they pull him in the 4th quarter when they have a big lead.
Pick: Colts 38 - Titans 17

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