Thursday, April 22, 2010

2010 NFL Draft Preview/Mock Draft

Things to know before the Draft:

So here we are, another Draft about to begin, when every team looks to the future of the franchise and hopes they don't blow it big time. Every year there are busts, steals, major trades, and disappointed fans. This year shouldn't be any different.

Before we even talk about who's going where, you have to remember the most critical part of the NFL Draft: Trades. Sure, the Rams have the #1 pick, and everyone expects them to select Sam Bradford. But what happens if they trade it to, say, Seattle, who uses it to pick Ndamukong Suh? It throws of every pick after it, and renders most mock drafts completely moot. And on Draft Day, anything can happen. At this point, the Steelers could trade Ben Roethlisberger to the Browns for their first round pick and a case of Mr Pib.

Obviously, these things happen because team executives know more than us. We can watch a game and talk about a player's abilities all we want. NFL execs have to go deeper than that. They have to determine if a player is the right fit for their team, both in the lockerroom and on the field. Tim Tebow is a perfect example of this.

There's is no doubting that Tebow has great skill on the football field, and no one is doubting his moral character. He's been called the greatest college football player in history. So why isn't he the #1 pick? Well, where would you put him? He isn't a traditional QB, his power running style seems more fit for a fullback, and he's a year or two removed from having the mechanics needed to complete throws in the NFL. Looking at his college stats, these are things you might not know right away.

So how do we know who each team might pick? We don't. All we can really do before the Draft begins is look at what we think a team needs, what's available, and make our best guess.

So without further ado, I present the 2010 NFL Mock Draft:

#1: St Louis Rams
Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Early on, everyone was saying Ndamukong Suh was the #1 pick. Problem is, the Rams don't need a defensive lineman nearly as much as they need a QB. Last season, the Rams had Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, and Keith Null under center. Nothing says "We need a franchise QB" more than that. Some people think Jimmy Clausen is the better QB, but I strongly disagree. Clausen's stats at Notre Dame, in my opinion, had more to do with throwing to strong, playmaking receivers than his own ability. Bradford is the right choice here, as long as his shoulder holds up in the NFL.

#2: Detroit Lions
Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Anyone who saw the performance Suh put on against Texas in the Big XII title game should know he's the most talented player in this year's Draft. Some say it's Gerald McCoy, and they would have a solid arguement. But Suh has already shown he can show up in big games against the best, and that puts him at #2.

#3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

McCoy is nearly a copy of Suh. The only difference is, Suh can just blow through an offensive line. McCoy is good, but he relies more on his speed than the brute strength that Suh has.

#4: Washington Redskins
Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

With Donovan McNabb under center this season, and an entire corps of new running backs, the Skins need a line to protect them. Okung on the left side creates a great anchor for the passing game. His size and quickness off the line should provide great protection and allow him to get into linebackers and the secondary when blocking the run.

#5: Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee

The Chiefs need help in their secondary, plain and simple. Berry won't give them any kind of size agvantage against the passing game, but he plays a very physical game. He'll be able to give them run support, while still being strong in coverage.

#6: Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

The Seahawks need to start rebuilding, asap. They still have a competent QB, they can improve their running game later in the draft, so right now they have to focus on their offensive line. Like the McCoy/Suh and Bradford/Clausen debates, theirs some arguement between Williams and Okung being the better lineman. The Skins will probably make the safer pick with Okung at #4, and the Seahawks will get the player with more raw ability at #6.

#7: Cleveland Browns
Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

There's a lot of specualtion about this pick. The Browns could go with Jimmy Clausen here, but after bringing in Jake Delhomme, I don't see that happening. Trading up or down is also a strong posibility, and it wouldn't surprise me. Assuming they stay here, Haden looks like their best choice. They have solid running backs, a strong defensive line, receivers that will at least get them through this year, and they brought in Scott Fujita to strengthen their linebackers. Their biggest weakness is their secondary, and Haden can easily fill that need.

#8: Oakland Raiders
Pick: Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida

To figure out the Raider's pick, you might as well throw darts at all the available names. After picking JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, and Darrius Heyward-Bey, I'm sure they think their offense is set. So looking at their defense, the most glaring hole is at linebacker. And why not pick Spikes? After he tried to gouge out another players eye, he'll fit right in.

#9: Buffalo Bills
Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

The Bills think they have their QB and backs figured out, now they just need to find a replacement for TO. Even without playing most of the past season, Bryant is still the most talented receiver in the Draft. He should be a great compliment across from Lee Evans.

#10: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Earl Thomas, SS, Texas

It might not look like it, but the Jags need help at safety. They need a player who can move around and cover a lot of positions. Thomas is that player. He's a little undersized, but the Jags have been successful with undersized players before.

#11: Denver Broncos(from Chicago Bears)
Pick: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

Even after trading away Brandon Marshall, the Broncos are stacked at receiver. They also have two second round picks, so don't be too surprised if they trade one and their first rounder to move up. Otherwise, they have a weakness at LB. McClain is clearly the best in the draft, and the Raiders won't pick him. Lcuky for Denver he falls right into their laps. Watch out for the possibility that the Giants could trade up and take him first, though.

#12: Miami Dolphins
Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Bill Parcells loves outside pass rushers. With Jason Taylor going to the Jets, they have a need for a player who can get there from the outside. There's speculation they could be looking for a linebacker to replace Taylor straight-up, but their line is a more pressing need. Jason Pierre-Paul is another possibility, but I get the feeling Morgan is the pick.

#13: San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

The '9ers put together a decent offense last season with a couple of guys who should be career backups under center. One left, and the other will probably just be a placeholder. They also need an offensive line help, but I don't see them risking letting Clausen go here to pick him up 17th. The safer play is taking Clausen here, and picking a lineman from the deeper pool there at 17.

#14: Seattle Seahawks(from Denver Broncos)
Pick: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

Right now, the Seahawks have no running game. Julius Jones hasn't been the same player here he was with the Cowboys. In a group that has some depth to it, with Jahvid Best and Toby Gerhart, Spiller is miles above everyone else. His 4.3 40 makes him one of the fastest players this year, and he could easily turn into the next Darren Sproles. He'll be a weapon for years to come for any team that takes him, and he may even be gone before this pick comes up.

#15: New York Giants
Pick: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

Weatherspoon may not be the best player at his position, or even the best available at this point, but the Giants are sorely in need of defensive help. They need to get healthier and younger on that side of the ball, and this pick will go a long way towards that goal. Don;t be surprised if should they trade up to get McClain, though.

#16: Tennessee Titans
Pick: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

The Titans running game is among the best in the league. Now they need some receivers to take the pressure off Vince Young and Chris Johnson. The flip side of Jimmy Clausen being overrated is that his receivers are underrated. Tate is probably the second best recevier in the Draft, and I'll stick by my belief that the Titans should take him here. I'm more inclined to believe they'll either pick Dezmon Briscoe or trade the pick, but I think Tate would be the right choice here.

#17: San Francisco 49ers(from Carolina Panthers)
Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Along with a young QB, it helps to have a young, strong offensive line. Anyone under center for the '9ers will need all the help he can get. Davis easily fills the need for a solid tackle. There may be some growing pains, and he isn't as good as Okung or Williams, but he'll do the job in the long run.

#18: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

The biggest weakness on the Steelers last season was their offensive line. There were times it looked like they couldn't block anyone, and other times when they actually couldn't. At 6' 5" and 331 pounds, Iupati is the biggest guard available this year, and is only outweighed by a pound by OT Vlad Ducasse. Once he learns the Steelers blocking schemes, he'll be able to sit back and get in the way in the passing game, or simply run defenders over while run blocking.

#19: Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Taylor Mays, FS, USC

With the additiona of Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez the last couple of seasons, and Matt Ryan at QB, the Falcons are pretty much set on offense. Their pass defense was among the worst in the league, though. While some of their corners will get better with more experience, they need a free safety to help out. Coming out of Pete Carroll's system at USC, Mays will be ready to take over the position immediately. Even if he doesn't go to the Falcons, he'll pay immediate dividends to any team that takes him.

#20: Houston Texans
Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

After their first winning season, the Texans have to think they're on their way to bigger things. They have a solid passing game, and someone down there must think Steve Slaton can still be the guy in the backfield. Their defense, however, could use some work, specifically their corners. Yes, all the corners currently on their roster are pretty young and inexperienced. Maybe they just need time to get better. Wilson would easily fit in as a nickel back though, and would help out in the return game in the mean time.

#21: Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Personally, I think Jimmy Graham is the most talented end in the Draft, so maybe the Titans will wait to fill their hole later on. But if they feel differently, then Gresham should be their pick. He's big, can block, and can challenge anyone covering him, despite not having the best speed. Missing last season with a knee injury won't help that. His 3-foot vertical and over-9-foot broad jump at the Combine shows that he still has power in those legs though. The Titans need a tight end that can take pressure off the receivers. Gresham could do that easily.

#22: New England Patriots
Pick: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

Two things Bill Belichick loves: stockpiling picks and versitility. With 12 total picks this year, including three in the second round and four in the seventh, the Pats could easily trade up. If they don't, Pouncey is the perfect Belichick player. He can line up at center or guard, he's big enough to hold off NFL nose tackles, and he played at Florida, where Belichick has a friend in head coach Urban Meyer. If the Pats are still here, I'm thinking Pouncey is their guy.

#23: Green Bay Packers
Pick: Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers

Did you watch the Packers-Cardinals playoff game, or at least remember it? Was their any pass defense in that game? No, which is why McCourty is headed to Green Bay. They have talent on offense, on the defensive line, and in the linebackers. They need a corner who can stop the passing game. Like Kyle Wilson, he'll step in as a nickel back right away and pay dividends on special teams before taking the fulltime CB slot.

#24: Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal

With Brian Westbrook gone, Kevin Kolb is gonna need some help in his first full season as the starter in Philly. Leonard Weaver may be good, but he isn't that good. Best is the perfect replacement for Westbrook. He's small like Westbrook, and has that explosive speed and escapability that Westbrook brought to every game he played. You can't get a better replacement for Brian Westbrook than a younger version of Brian Westbrook.

#25: Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Despite most people thinking they need to upgrade their defense, the Ravens need help on the offensive line. Bulaga isn't nearly the best lineman in the draft, but he can be a solid starter on any line with some work.

#26: Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Oklahoma State

Do the Cards really need another receiver? No, but they might think they do. They've spent the entire offseason matching a free agent gain to a loss. With Anquan Boldin off to Baltimore, I don't see why they couldn't replace him in the draft. Briscoe would be a solid pick, and would give whoever the QB will be this season an excellent target.

#27: Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Nathaniel Allen, FS, South Florida

The Cowboys need a safety, and they need one badly. With their NFC East competition all going to pass-heavy offenses, a solid pass defense is more important than ever. They had too many shootouts last season to be comfortable with their secondary. Allen isn't perfect, but he's certainly an upgrade.

#28: San Diego Chargers
Pick: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

Like Philly picking Jahvid Best, Mathews is a perfect fit to replace a player he runs like. Both Mathews and LaDainian Tomlinson are strong, one-cut, power runners. Mathews can come in and spend a year behind Darren Sproles as a short yardage back if he has to, and take over once he can play at NFL speed.

#29: New York Jets
Pick: Sergio Kindle, DE, Texas

Rex Ryan loves versility on defense almost as much as Bill Belichick does on his whole team. The Jets may have brought in Jason Taylor, but he's getting old and could use some help in front of him. In Kindle, the Jets would have a solid end who could also stand up and play outside linebacker. He could be everything the Jets hoped Vernon Gholston would be.

#30: Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

It almost pains me to say it, but this looks like a strong possibility. Assuming Brett Favre comes back, Tebow would have at least a season to sit and learn from one of the best QBs ever. Plus, he's already the player the Vikes hoped Tarvaris Jackson would become. Would he be the worst pick here? No. Could they make a better pick? Probably.

#31: Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

The biggest concern for the Colts over the past few seasons has been their run defense, which is nonexistent when Bob Sanders isn't playing. And he misses a lot of games. Williams may be better suited for a 3-4 defense rather than the Cover 2 the Colts play, but at 327 pounds, he can clog up the middle and swallow up the run game in any defense. Speed on defense may be good for some things, but a big, slow lineman in the middle can go pretty far when defending the run.

#32: New Orleans Saints
Pick: Patrick Robinson, CB, FSU

The Saints rode their patchwork secondary to a Super Bowl win last season, but they won;t be able to get away with it twice. They need some better insurance that injuries won't have them signing random free agents again. Robinson is the perfect type to step in, take some of the pressure off the vets, and learn from them on a team that should contend for a Super Bowl again.

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