More Wild Card Teams Won't Help Baseball. A Salary Cap Will.

I've heard a lot of basbeall "experts" bringing up the idea of adding another wild card team to both MLB leagues to spice up the playoff races. They think it will add late season excitement, and the addition of a one-game playoff between the now-two wild card teams would put the winner at a disadvantage for the Division Series. Tim Kurkjian, on Mike and Mike in the Morning today, even brought up the fact that it could help small-market teams, since the major stories this year are all big-market teams. But all these arguments are wrong.

I'd first like to address the idea that the wild card team should be put at a disadvantage. People say its been too easy for wild card teams to reach and win the World Series. Of the 28 wild card teams since its inception, nine have reached the World Series, and four have won it. But why should it have to be harder? Of those 28 teams, 17 of them have had a better record than one or both of the division winners in their league, outside of their division. This includes a 2001 Oakland A's team that won 102 games, more than any other team except the Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games and the division. In fact, only in 1995 and 1999 have both wild card teams not finished with a better record than a division winner in their league. When the division winners consistently outperform the wild card teams, then you can make an honest arguement that wild card teams should be at a disadvantage.

Really here the big reason for this idea is the lack of a pennant race this year. The Yankees are already in the playoffs and the Cardinals can clinch their division with a Cubs loss tonight. The only thing close to a race is the AL Central, where Detroit currently has a 2.5 game lead on Minnesota. Is adding another playoff team really the answer? Even this year, the only race that would actually be exciting would be between Atlanta and San Francisco, who would be tied for the second wild card spot. No, the real answer is a salary cap.

Since the introduction of the wild card in 1995, the NY Yankees have had the highest payroll in baseball every year except 1995 and 1998. They also went to the playoffs every year except 2008. This year, their payroll is over $50 million more than the next team, the NY Mets. The current system, which has a luxury tax on teams with payrolls over a certain amount, will tax only the Yankees this year, while not ensuring that teams have to spend more or less than a certain amount. Under this system, teams that want to go out and spend money can spend as much as they want. Similarly, teams that don't want to spend money can sit back and do nothing. A salary cap with a hard floor and ceiling, like is done in other sports, would fix that.

Over the past 14 years, baseball salaries have more than tripled. The top payrolls in 1995 would be the bottom payrolls today. But looking at the payrolls ranks, one thing stands out: the bottom teams always stay near the bottom. With baseball's shared revenue, small-market teams get a cut of the money generated by competetive, mostly big-market teams. Looking at 2008's payrolls, the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland A's, Tampa Bay Rays and Florida Marlins all spent less than $50 million. But the Pirates alone reportedly made $75 million from revenue sharing. Without a hard floor and ceiling, there is no real incentive for teams to cut spending or put money into a competitive team. Setting a ceiling in the low $100 millions and a floor around $50 million would force big-market teams, like the Yankees and Red Sox, perennial playoff teams, to cut spending. It would also cause perennial bottom-dwellers to be competitive by spending more money.

What we have now is a system in where a team like the Yankees can make money and put it back into the team. Meanwhile, a team like the Pirates can make money simply off of revenue sharing, then pocket the money and put a non-competitive team on the field. This is whats wrong with pennant races these days. A salary cap that would force teams to be competitive would bring more parity to the game, and more meaningful games into September.