Friday, November 13, 2009

College Football Week 11 - Important Matchups

1 Florida @ South Carolina
Favorite: Florida, -17
With Florida already knowing they'll play Alabama in the SEC title game, it would be easy for them to lose focus. Add to that their recent struggles on offense, and this could easily turn into the upset of the weekend, if not the season. SEC title or not, with five undefeated teams behind them in the standings, Florida needs to keep winning. Lucky for them that South Carolina's defense has struggle over the last two weeks, losing to Tennessee and Arkansas, and giving up 30 points to both. Florida might not put up 40+ points in this one, but they'll still pull out the win.
Pick: Florida 31 - South Carolina 17

10 Iowa @ 11 Ohio State
Favorite: Ohio State, -17
Iowa finally lost last week, and with the way they've been playing it was only a matter of time. Ohio State has an ugly loss to Purdue on their record, but has already shaken it off. In the three games since that loss, they've outscored opponents 107-14, including a 24-7 win over Penn State last week. With this game deciding the Big Ten champion, Ohio State simply looks like the better, and better prepared, team.
Pick: Ohio State 24 - Iowa 10

16 Utah @ 4 TCU
Favorite: TCU, -20
The way it stands now, TCU needs to win out, and have Texas lose a game, to have a shot at the BCS National Championship. This week they face a Utah team that knows all too well what it feels like to go undefeated and not play for the title, as they were in this position last year. If you take out Utah's loss to Oregon, these two teams have combined to allow more than 20 points and score less than 20 points only once, both by TCU. They might have a great team this year, but I think this is the week TCU gets taken out of the title picture.
Pick: Utah 24 - TCU 17

25 West Virginia @ 5 Cincinnati
Favorite: Cincinnati, -8.5
Tony Pike may not be getting the start again this week, but clearly Cincy hasn't missed a beat without him. And somehow, over the same four game stretch, its been West Virginia's offense thats struggled. They've gone from 33.8 points per game in their first five to 22 in their last four. Cincinnati's offense has played consistently well, and hasn't scored less than 28 points all season. I don't see any reason why that will change now.
Pick: Cincinnati 38 - West Virginia 17

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