NFL Week 10 Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars @ NY Jets
Spread: Jets, -7
o/u: 40.5
With both teams at 4-4, this game is a must-win for both teams to start the second half. The thing to remember about the Jags is they haven't played well on the road, and David Garrard especially. The key for them will be Maurice Jones-Drew's ability to run through a Jets D without Kris Jenkins. The Jets key, then, will be to swarm MJD, and not let him break big plays on them. Even if he does, the Jags defense is terrible, and Mark Sanchez should have all day to find open receivers when he needs to. This game could easily go the way of the Jets-Raiders game of a few weeks ago.
Pick: Jets 28 - Jaguars 17

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Spread: Falcons, -1.5
o/u: 43.5
The Falcons have put together a winning season with Michael Turner having a slow start. He's suddenly come alive again, and looks like the sometimes-unstoppable back he was last year. For the Panthers, Jake Delhomme's terrible start has only been slowed by the lack of times he threw the ball against Arizona, and his somehow avoiding a pick against New Orleans last week. Still, his completions over the last two weeks are just above 50%. Delhomme needs to wake up for this team to win, and I don't see it happening against the Falcons.
Pick: Falcons 35 - Panthers 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins, -10
o/u: 43
Its a battle of the rookies, as Josh Freeman goes to Miami to face the Dolphin's two rookie CBs. Miami has become a team based almost solely on running the ball. As much as Tampa's offense improved with Freeman under center, they still have the third worst rushing defense in the NFL. I'd love to say they'll have back-to-back wins this week, but I just can't do it.
Pick: Dolphins 28 - Boccaneers 24

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings, -16.5
o/u: 47
The Lions have all their offensive weapons back and... mostly healthy. The Packers have Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson. And thats all they really need.
Pick: Vikings 31 - Lions 13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers, -7
o/u: 41.5
The Bengals already beat the Steelers once this year, but it was on a last-minute TD, and with Troy Polamalu out. Polamalu brings alot to this defense, and I'd be willing to bet that his being out was why they lost. The other factor has been the Steelers run game. In the Week 3 matchup, they also hadn't figured out their offense yet. Now, with Rashard Mendenhall getting the bulk of the carries, they look more like the hard nosed Steelers offense that wins championships.
Pick: Steelers 21 - Bengals 17

New Orleans Saints @ St Louis Rams
Spread: Saints, -13.5
o/u: 50
The Rams are scoring less than 10 points per game, and the Saints haven't scored less than 24 points all season. The ppg differential on these two teams is actually 28.3. Thats more than double what the spread for this game is. Fun fact: FB Daniel Fells leads the Rams with 3 TD receptions, which is the same as Saint Darren Sharper's TDs off interceptions.
Pick: Saints 38 - Rams 0

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans, -7
o/u: 41
The Vince Young Experiment has somehow woken up the Titan's running game, as they've put up 369 yards and 5 TDs on the ground in the two wins since Young took over. This week they face the worst rush defense in the NFL. This could get ugly.
Pick: Titans 31 - Bills 14

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Spread: Raiders, -2
o/u: 36.5
The Chiefs will be without Larry Johnson for the first time since 2002. Thats a good thing: former backup Jamaal Charles is averaging almost twice the yards per carry Johnson was. Now it's just a matter of the Chiefs caoching staff figuring that out and using it to their advantage. Oakland barely came away with a win in Week 2. If anything, JaMarcus Russell has regressed since then. KC took Dallas to overtime, and they've played well in most of their games all season. This could be a turnaround week for them.
Pick: Chiefs 24 - Raiders 10

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals, -8.5
o/u: 46.5
The inconsistency battle of the weekend takes place in Arizona this week. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance, and both have looked like the NFL's worst team. However, on a scale of 1-10, Arizona's inconsistency rating of 4 slightly beats out Seattle's 3.
Pick: Cardinals 34 - Seahawks 14

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Spread: Cowboys, -3
o/u: 47.5
The last time these teams played, Miles Austin had a game-sealing 52 yard TD, and that was before he became NFL Breakout Player of the Year(in my opinion anyway). Now hes a full time starter, and the Packers are coming off a loss to Tampa Bay. Yes, that Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is on the ground so much theres a Sack Tracker just for him. Go there for a look at every sack Rodger's has taken this season, broken down by game.
Pick: Cowboys 35 - Packers 2

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Spread: Chargers, -1
o/u: 47
This is a huge game for both teams. A win by either team keeps them right behind first place, and a loss could be devastating. Both teams come in dealing with some injuries on defense, and both defenses haven't lived up to expectations. The combination of the Chargers 26th ranked rush defense and the Eagles having Brian Westbrook back has me leaning towards the Eagles as the winners here.
Pick: Eagles 28 - Chargers 24

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -3
o/u: 49.5
The Colts may be undefeated, but the Pats have improved dramatically since the season began. This could have easily been two 8-0 teams if the Pats had played this well to start the season. The Colts offense has struggled at times this season, notably in the last two weeks against Houston and San Francisco. With no running game, I don't see the Colts coming out of this one with their undefeated record intact.
Pick: Patriots 34 - Colts 17