Hot Stove Roundup - Thoughts on the Winter Meetings

It was a crazy week, as pretty much every team and baseball agent was in Indianapolis for the MLB Winter Meetings:

Free Agency:
This seems like a great year for aging catchers! Hot on the heels of last weeks signing of Gregg Zaun comes the signings of Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez to two-year deals. Both players are going to teams that haven't made the playoffs in years and expect to win. Rodriguez will most likely be a backup for the Nationals, but Kendall is expected to be the regular catcher for the Royals next year. Maybe the Royals are hoping he'll bounce back for them after he had a career low in batting average(.241) and slugging(.305). His 134 games played is also his lowest in 10 years. Well, at least the Royals are trying to do something in free agency for once.

The Houston Astros made a couple of free agency moves this week, signing 3B Pedro Feliz to a one-year deal and RP Brandon Lyon to a three-year deal. Feliz brings two years of World Series experience with him, having spent the last two years with the Phillies. He also brings a decent bat, but only as long as he can keep improving. His .266 batting average and .308 on base were among the highest of his career, but his power numbers were down a bit. He'll need to reconcile that if he wants to remain a factor with the Astros and get a longer term deal. Lyon at three years, $15 million might be overpaying a bit, but he could be worth it. In his one year with Detroit last year, he had career bests in innings, ERA, Ks, batting average against, and WHIP. Unfortunately, he also had a career high in walks. At 30-years-old, he still has room for improvement, and the time to do it. It might not seem like a great deal now, but in a year or two this could be a huge signing for the Astros.

The Chicago White Sox continue to sign reclamation projects, giving RP JJ Putz a one-year deal. When the NY Mets traded for Putz last offseason, they knew he was damaged goods. The end result was most of the season spent on the DL, and the Mets declined his option. Could he reclaim his former form on the mound? Sure. The odds look to be against it, though. Who knows at this point how well his arm will hold up? The Sox are taking a big chance here, but at least its only for one year. If he continues to break down, they can just cut ties after this season.

The Brewers upgraded a decent pitching rotation by signing Randy Wolf to a three year, $29.75 million contract. In my opinion, Wolf is the guy teams should have been looking at instead of John Lackey. Lackey may be a better big game pitcher, but he and Wolf have similar regular season numbers. With Wolf coming at a cheaper price, I'd rather take him than Lackey if I were a GM. The Brewers made the right move in signing him while Lackey is still on the market and there wasn't much competition.

Another risking move from the meetings, but one with tremendous potential upside, was the signing of Rich Harden by the Rangers. In 2004, Harden looked like the future of great pitching, going 11-7 in 31 starts, with 167 Ks. Over the next three years, he would only start in 38 total games, and it looked like he might have is time in the Majors cut short by injuries. Oakland shipped him to the Cobs in mid-2008, and Harden has started to show flashes of his potential. Over the past two seasons, including his half-season with Oakland, he has started in 51 games, has a 19-11 record, and had career highs in Ks. Unfortunately, he also gave up a career high 23 homers last year. Still, if he can stay healthy and stop giving up the longball, he could have a good, long career in front of him.

Somehow, after looking like they might take a back seat for a while, the NY Yankees emerged as the big story of the Winter Meetings. In free agency, they made two things very clear: they wanted Andy Petite back, and they know when to play hardball. After offering Petite $5 million for one year when Petite wanted double that last year, an agreement was reached that ended up paying even more after incentives were reached. Both sides knew they wanted Andy back in pinstripes for another year, and quickly agreed on an $11.75 million deal. It isn't much of a raise when you consider what he made in total last year, but the hometown discount gives the Yankees a pitcher they need, and Andy another chance at a World Series ring.
Trades:
There were a few trades made this week, but I'm only concentrating on one, because it was a big one. The Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Detroit Tigers pulled off a blockbuster three-team deal that could benefit all three teams.

First off, the Diamondback picked up Edwin Jackson from the Tigers and Ian Kenedy from the Yanks, while giving up Daniel Schlereth and Max Sherzer. Jackson is the prize in this end of the deal, as he'll solidify the rotation as the third starter. I can think of more worse things than better when looking at Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Jackson at the top of the rotation. Kennedy wasn't doing much for the Yankees, and they had all but given up on ever making him a pitching threat in the Majors. He's serviceable, and should do well in a weaker division, but other teams obviously see more in him than the Yankees did.

Next, the Tigers get Austin Jackson and Phil Coke from the Yankees, along with Schlereth and Sherzer. Jackson and Coke are possibly the best of the Tigers end of the trade. Coke showed some shakiness in the playoffs, but he was mostly lights out for the Yankees out of the bullpen all last season. Jackson has never played in the Majors, but he was one of the Yankees top prospects, and was expected to see time in the outfield in 2010 if Johnny Damon doesn't return. Obviously, there's no guarantee he'll be a star, but word coming up from the minors says he probably will be. Schlereth gives them a young arm out of the bullpen. In his first season, his 5.89 ERA in 18.1 innings should be a concern, but his 21 Ks shows the potential thats there. With two more years to develope behind him, bringing Scherzer along in the deal will help both pitchers. He has one more year of experience over Schlereth, and both have similar numbers. Separately, they could both be assets out of the bullpen. Staying together and learning form each other could help make them both great relievers.

The Yankees gave up the most in the deal and got the least, but they still made out pretty well for themselves. In exchange for the four players the Yanks gave up, they got Curtis Granderson in return. With Damon aging and not even a guarantee to return next year, they obviously needed to do something with their outfield. Free Agents Matt Holliday and Jason Bay would have been great additions, but it would have been hard to sign one of them while trying to fill holes elsewhere and keep payroll under the $200 million the team is shooting for. Trading for Granderson solves their outfield, sheds some payroll while adding his, and will let them go after other free agents. From a business standpoint, this is a solid trade. I don't know how I feel from a talent standpoint. Yes, Granderson is an excellent CF. I can understand giving up Ian Kennedy, but Coke leaves a hole in the bullpen, and its possible Jackson could have filled the outfield just as well. As a lefty pull-hitter, Granderson is great for Yankee Stadium. He struggles greatly against left-handed pitching though, so you have to wonder if Jackson could have been a better choice at the plate. Ultimately, the trade does help all three teams.

Rumors:
After spending the first week of free agency signing backups and minor-leaguers, the Mets finally woke up and realized the need starters, too. Rumors from lat ein the meetings say they made offers to Bay and C Bengie Molina. apparently, though, the Bay offer doesn't carry much weight, as later rumors say it was just made to show people they're they're trying. The Molina offer, though lower profile could go either way. The Mets haven't had a solid catcher since Mike Piazza left, and they hope Molina could be it. At 35, he could be about to hit his decline. Still, he does offer an improvement over what the Mets currently have, which isn't much.

The Winter Meetings led to some serious thought on Roy Halladay. Looking at some of the rumors, it seems like every MLB team has shown interest. The Yankees are known to have asked about him, but said the price was too high. Right now, the Angels and Red Sox look like the front-runners, but that could change at any time. Both teams are thought to have made solid offers for him, but the Blue Jays want more. A trade will get done, but either someone will overpay for him, or the Jays will have to lower their demands.

Earlier I mentioned that the Yankees aren't afraid to play hardball with free agents. Now I'll explain. The Yanks had three major free agents to worry about after last season: Petite, Damon, and Hideki Matsui. They've already resigned Petite, so that leaves Damon and Matsui. Both are on the last legs of their careers, but both think they can continue to contribute into the future. The Yankees are willing to talk, but so far have been unwilling to look past a year or two in a deal. No one expects them to offer a long term deal to either player. So far, the strategy has worked. Matsui has seen some interest from the White Sox and Mariners, but the market for Damon has been pretty weak. Many expect him to come limping back to the Yankees any day now. At this point, either way wouldn't surprise me. Any team that takes him would have to understand he'll be limited in the outfield. The Yankees would actually be a good fit right now, because the Granderson trade gives them depth in the outfield, allowing them to rest Damon while still making him a core member of the team.

A Note on Last Week's Roundup:
Last week I profiled Adrian Beltre as my Free Agent of the Week. In it, I said I expected him to accept arbitration after having an injury-filled year. What I didn't take into account was his agent. Beltre is represented by Scott Boras. Boras is known to turn down a guarantee for the hope of greater money, and that's just what he did. Rumors say Boras is looking in the $10 million per year range for Beltre, a number that arbitration wouldn't have given him. Right now, it looks like he could be landing with the Red Sox, who will do just about anything to keep pace with the Yankees. Really this doesn't hurt the Seattle Mariners much, because it leaves them with plenty of money to go after Bay or Holliday, but it doesn leave a hole at third base they'll need to fill.

Free Agent of the Week:
Chien-Ming Wang
Like Rich Harden with Oakland, Wang once looked like the future of Yankee pitching. Back-to-back 19 win seasons in 2006 and '07 had him in place to be the ace of a strong Yankees rotation. Then the injury bug hit him. Shortly into the '08 season, a foot injury put him on the DL for most of the year. Trying to come back in '09, Wang was a shell of his former self, and only started 9 games. He was in and out all season with injuries, and only had one or two strong appearances out of the bullpen towards the end of the season. He finished with a 1-6 record and 9.64 ERA in 12 appearances for the year. With his contract up, the Yankees have severed ties with the once-great righty, putting him out on the open market. As bad as things were, Wang showed flashes of brilliance at times this season. At this point, the market for him is a complete unknown. His most likely options are a team with a solid rotation in front of him that they can bury him at the back of, or the possibility of a minor league contract. The LA Dodgers have already been rumored to be interested, which would reunitew him with former Yankee manager Joe Torre. While I don't think it was a mistake for the Yankees to abandon Wang so quickly, I do expect to see him at least in the middle of someones rotation in a year or two. Probably not this year, but staying healthy for a season in the minors could be what's best for him.