NFL Week 13 Wrap-up

Four games left, let's take a look at the playoff picture:

AFC:
The Indianapolis Colts have clinched the AFC South, and should clinch home-field in the playoffs with a win. The Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention based on record and tie-breakers.

East
The East in both conferences is the closest race from top to bottom. For the AFC, the New England Patriots are back on top, but barely. They split their games with the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins, but a win against Buffalo in Week 15 would give them tie-breakers against both. Unfortunately for the teams below them, the Pats only opponent with a winning record is the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. The good news is the Pats play two of their last four on the road, where their only win has been against the Buccaneers in a neutral site game in London. Down the stretch, I could see the Pats and Jets both going 2-2, and the Dolphins 1-3. That would give the Pats the division, and probably lock the rest out of the playoffs. The Bills are technically still alive, but they need to go 4-0, while the Pats go 0-4 and the Jets and Phins no better than 1-3.

North
The Cincinnati Bengals just need a win or losses by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens to lock up their division. They're undefeated in-division, so they own all the tie-breakers. However, their next opponents are the Minnesota Vikings and San Diego Chargers on the road. Even if the lose to the Vikes, they can still beat the Chargers, and if they go 0-2, they should beat Kansas City in Week 16. To think that the Steelers and Ravens will go 4-0 is a bit of a stretch, too. My guess at this point is they both go 3-1 and don't make the playoffs, and that's a best case scenario.

South
The only race here is for the Wild Card, and the Jaguars currently have the second berth locked up. Finishing the season 3-1 or better should keep it that way, but with games against Indy and on the road against the Pats, 2-2 is more likely. That should also be good enough for the playoffs. The Titans are two games back, and are more likely to go 4-0, but their 0-6 start left them in bad shape with tie-breakers. If they do finish perfect and the Jags go 2-2, the Jags win on head-to-head results.

West
After looking like the Denver Broncos would wrap this division early, they've struggled and given way to the Chargers. Theres good news all around in the West though, as both teams should make the playoffs. I can't see the Broncos going worse than 2-2 in the last four, which would be good enough for at least the first Wild Card. The Chargers look like they have the same chance, and if they both finish 2-2 or 3-1, which are both possible, the Chargers would end a game ahead and take the West.


NFC:
The New Orleans Saints have already clinched the NFC South, but only have a 2-game lead on the Vikings for home-field advantage in the NFC. The Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and St Louis Rams have been eliminated from playoff contention.

East
Like the AFC, the NFC East is still up for grabs. The problem with straightening out the playoff picture is the fact that the top three teams all play two division opponents each in the last four games. The Philadelphia Eagles should sweep their two in-division games, and split the other two. The Cowboys should lose to the Eagles and beat the Redskins. I don't see them beating either the Saints or Chargers, though, which would put them behind the Eagles for the division. The Giants would also lose to the Eagles and beat the Redskins, but beating Carolina and losing to the Vikings would tie them with the 'Boys. The fact that the Giants swept them this year gives them the tie-breaker, and the second Wild Card berth.

North
The Vikings and Green Bay Packers are both fighting for their division, but like the AFC West, its good news all around. If Brett Favre's arm can hold up, the Vikes should go any worse than 3-1, and even if they do, I don't see the Packers passing them in the standings. At best, the Packers would probably tie, lose the tie-breakers, but go to the playoffs with the top Wild Card berth. The Chicago Bears are still alive, but I don't see them going better than 1-3 down the stretch.

South
The Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are still alive for the Wild Card, but they won't get it. With their injuries, the Falcons won't really be a factor, and will lose Weeks 14 and 15 before finishing with wins over the Bills and Bucs. Sorry Panther's fans, your winning days are behind you. Its 0-4 down the stretch, even with a new QB.

West
The Arizona Cardinals just about have a stranglehold on the division, since they're the only team in it with a winning record. Beating the 49ers this week would just about clinch it for them. Basically, I have this entire division going 2-2, which would hold the current status quo. The Cards are still the only team with a winning record in a division that looked strong after the first few weeks of the season, and the '9ers and Seahawks finish 7-9.


Injuries:
EJ Henderson, LB, Vikings: out for the season with a broken leg
William Gay, CB, Steelers: expected to miss at least this week with a head injury
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: could miss one or two games with a shoulder injury

Fantasy Studs:

1. Tony Romo. He may have lost, but he had 392 yards and 3 TDs doing it.
2. Drew Brees. He was first last week, but his 419 yards and 2 TDs was only good for second this time.
3. Robert Meacham. You would think 142 yards and a receiving TD would be good enough, but add in a fumble return for a score, and it becomes great.
   

Fantasy Duds:

1. Titans D. Blanked against the Colts? That isn't gonna get it done.
2. Greg Olsen. Two catches, 1 yard, 0.1 points. Terrible.
3. Michael Bush. One carry, 1 yard, 0.1 points. His average of 1 yard per carry puts him below Olsen's 0.5 yards per reception.
   

Week 13 Picks:
Straight up: 9-7, 122-69 overall
ATS: 8-8, 104-85-2 overall
o/u: 7-9, 90-98-3 overall

Questions for Week 14:
How will teams adjust to the new concussion policy?
William Gay's injury is being reported as a concussion, but the team injury report says "head injury." Looking around the league, there are other such "head injury" listings. With the NFL's new policy on holding out players with concussions, is this how teams are going to do things in the future? Will we see honest diagnosises of concussions, or will more "head injuries" start showing up on injury reports?

Can teams rebound for the playoffs push?
Of course, everything I wrote above is pure speculation. With four weeks left to go, anything can happen. Could the Bills win out while everyone above them loses? Sure. Will it happen? The odds are largely against them. Similarly, Brett Favre's arm could do what it did last year, the Vikes could lose the rest of their games, and miss the playoffs. The teams that need a rebound the most are the ones that can decide how this season ends. Most of the teams in contention for the AFC Wild Card lost last week, including the Steelers, losers of 4 straight. Can they bounce back and make an impact on the playoffs? Or will things stay pretty much unchanged heading to the postseason?

Who loses first: Colts or Saints?
That isn't as hard a question as it sounds. The Colts clinched their division, and are on the verge of clinching home-field in the AFC. Their head coach wants to rest his starters for the playoffs, so any of the next three games against the Broncos, Jags, and Jets could be their first loss. If they don't lose one of those, finishing the season against the Bills could leave them undefeated. The Saints, however, want perfection. They want it for the City of New Orleans and the fans that stuck with them through Hurricane Katrina. They also want it because the Vikings are still breathing down their necks for NFC home-field. I'm sure though, that even if they weren't, the Saints would still be playing for a perfect season. What they have left on the schedule should be winnable games. Its a weak Atlanta team this week, followed by the collapsing Cowboys, Tampa Bay, and ending on the road in Carolina. I don't see them finishing worse than 15-1, with that 1 probably being Carolina, if at all.