Super Bowl XLIV Preview

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -5
o/u: 56.5
Over the past two weeks, I've compared the positions of these two teams head-to-head, and the Saints came out on top, 5-4. In key positions, the Saints match up better against the Colts than vice versa. Still, analysts have been praising the Colts the last two weeks like they won every game by huge magins and dominated every game. If you believe Tony Dungy and most of the other experts, the Colts have already won. That simply isn't true. Of the Colts 14 wins, four came by a field goal or less, and seven came by 7 points or less. The Colts scored more than 20 points 10 times in their wins, while allowing more than 20 four times. The Saints, on the other hand, won by a field goal or less only twice, and 7 points or less only three times. They may have given up more than 20 points eight times in winning games, but they scored more than 20 points in all of their 13 wins. Dungy went as far as to say he would be shocked if the Colts won by less than two TDs. Personally, I think that is a completely rediculous statement, considering the Colts only won by 14 points or more five times, including the postseason, Before the Divisional Round they hadn't done it since Week 7 against the Rams. Does that mean it won't happen? No, the Super Bowl has had a long tradition of defying expectations. I'll be expecting a Saints victory.
Pick: Saints 31 - Colts 20