So depending on which analyst you listen to, either the underdog or the better team won. I picked the New Orleans Saints all along. And now a quarter-by-quarter look at the game:
First Quarter:
From the start, this looked like a win for the Indianapolis Colts. Each team had two possessions in the first quarter, and were opposites in what they did with the ball. The Colts drove almost at will, scoring both times. Their second possession was a 96 yard drive for a TD. Meanwhile, the Saints couldn't get moving. Their first possession, off the opening kickoff, ended in a 3-and-out punt. Their second got them a first down, but failed when Marques Colston dropped a wide open pass on 3rd-and-7. Things weren't looking good after the first.
Score after 1: Colts 10 - Saints 0
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Monday, February 8, 2010
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Super Bowl XLIV Preview
New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -5
o/u: 56.5
Over the past two weeks, I've compared the positions of these two teams head-to-head, and the Saints came out on top, 5-4. In key positions, the Saints match up better against the Colts than vice versa. Still, analysts have been praising the Colts the last two weeks like they won every game by huge magins and dominated every game. If you believe Tony Dungy and most of the other experts, the Colts have already won. That simply isn't true. Of the Colts 14 wins, four came by a field goal or less, and seven came by 7 points or less. The Colts scored more than 20 points 10 times in their wins, while allowing more than 20 four times. The Saints, on the other hand, won by a field goal or less only twice, and 7 points or less only three times. They may have given up more than 20 points eight times in winning games, but they scored more than 20 points in all of their 13 wins. Dungy went as far as to say he would be shocked if the Colts won by less than two TDs. Personally, I think that is a completely rediculous statement, considering the Colts only won by 14 points or more five times, including the postseason, Before the Divisional Round they hadn't done it since Week 7 against the Rams. Does that mean it won't happen? No, the Super Bowl has had a long tradition of defying expectations. I'll be expecting a Saints victory.
Pick: Saints 31 - Colts 20
Spread: Colts, -5
o/u: 56.5
Over the past two weeks, I've compared the positions of these two teams head-to-head, and the Saints came out on top, 5-4. In key positions, the Saints match up better against the Colts than vice versa. Still, analysts have been praising the Colts the last two weeks like they won every game by huge magins and dominated every game. If you believe Tony Dungy and most of the other experts, the Colts have already won. That simply isn't true. Of the Colts 14 wins, four came by a field goal or less, and seven came by 7 points or less. The Colts scored more than 20 points 10 times in their wins, while allowing more than 20 four times. The Saints, on the other hand, won by a field goal or less only twice, and 7 points or less only three times. They may have given up more than 20 points eight times in winning games, but they scored more than 20 points in all of their 13 wins. Dungy went as far as to say he would be shocked if the Colts won by less than two TDs. Personally, I think that is a completely rediculous statement, considering the Colts only won by 14 points or more five times, including the postseason, Before the Divisional Round they hadn't done it since Week 7 against the Rams. Does that mean it won't happen? No, the Super Bowl has had a long tradition of defying expectations. I'll be expecting a Saints victory.
Pick: Saints 31 - Colts 20
Friday, February 5, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Coaches
Indianapolis Colts:
Jim Caldwell may be considered a rookie head coach, but that doesn't really mean anything in this situation. He's been with the Colts since 2002, and the majority of his assistants have been with the team for at least two seasons. Some have been there for over a decade. Caldwell spent his first three seasons as QB coach, working with Peyton Manning. After that, he was named assistant head coach in 2005. There are probably only a handful of people in the organization that are better prepared to handle an offense centered on Manning better than Caldwell. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is one of the new additions to the teams since Caldwell took over, and he has instilled a bend-don't-break style to the defense. The team may be around the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, but they're 8th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 per game. The fact that almost every coach on the staff was with the team when they won their last Super Bowl will be a big boost this week.
New Orleans Saints:
Sean Payton is in his third year as head coach of the Saints, and he is already among the best head coaches in franchise history. His experience as the quarterbacks coach with the Dallas Cowboys, who had a revolving door at QB for most of his time there, made him almost a perfect choice for a team that had a running game on the decline when he took over, but a passing game ready to break loose. Under Payton, Drew Brees has had his three highest seasons for TDs, and three of his four highest in passing yards. He also came just a few yards shy of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record when he finished the season with 5,069. The Saints also finished first in total offense this season, putting up 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff doesn't have the tenure of the Colts coaches. All joined the team in 2005 or later. The one thing they have going for them is that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams comes from a season with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he had to face Manning and the Colts twice, winning one.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Jim Caldwell may be considered a rookie head coach, but that doesn't really mean anything in this situation. He's been with the Colts since 2002, and the majority of his assistants have been with the team for at least two seasons. Some have been there for over a decade. Caldwell spent his first three seasons as QB coach, working with Peyton Manning. After that, he was named assistant head coach in 2005. There are probably only a handful of people in the organization that are better prepared to handle an offense centered on Manning better than Caldwell. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is one of the new additions to the teams since Caldwell took over, and he has instilled a bend-don't-break style to the defense. The team may be around the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, but they're 8th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 per game. The fact that almost every coach on the staff was with the team when they won their last Super Bowl will be a big boost this week.
New Orleans Saints:
Sean Payton is in his third year as head coach of the Saints, and he is already among the best head coaches in franchise history. His experience as the quarterbacks coach with the Dallas Cowboys, who had a revolving door at QB for most of his time there, made him almost a perfect choice for a team that had a running game on the decline when he took over, but a passing game ready to break loose. Under Payton, Drew Brees has had his three highest seasons for TDs, and three of his four highest in passing yards. He also came just a few yards shy of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record when he finished the season with 5,069. The Saints also finished first in total offense this season, putting up 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff doesn't have the tenure of the Colts coaches. All joined the team in 2005 or later. The one thing they have going for them is that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams comes from a season with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he had to face Manning and the Colts twice, winning one.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts:
First of all, congratulations to Matt Stover for being the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl. With Adam Vinatieri being held out after injuring his leg during the season, Stover came in and did an excellent job as his replacement. He was perfect on extra points and made 9 of 11 field goals in the regular season, which isn't great, but is good enough considering the Colts don't kick many field goals. In the playoffs, he is a perfect 5 for 5 so far. Punting has been fairly strong, as well. Rookie Pat McAfee is averaging a third of his punts burying opponents inside their own 20, in both the playoffs and regular season. One thing they won't have going for them this week is playing in a dome. With Sun Life Stadium being open air, they'll have to adjust for wind instead of the stillness indoors. One of Stover's two missed field goals this year came outdoors against Houston, His one other outdoor attempt, of course, was good. The return game needs to improve though. Punt returner TJ Rushing was forced to fair catch half of the punts he fielded, and averaged less than 6 yards per return. If the Saints can get moving but have to kick, not being able to get off a good return could hurt. Kick returner Chad Simpson hasn't always been great, but he does have one return for a TD this season.
New Orleans Saints:
Like Stover, Garrett Hartley replaced another player, John Carney, who was cut for missing too many kicks. Hartley has done well, but he has two misses of his own, and his only attempt longer than 40 yards was one of them. Punter Thomas Morstead attempted less punts than McAfee, and has a lower percentage of punts inside the 20, but he averages only about half a yard per punt less, and both have a long of 60 yards. Like the Colts, the Saints kickers will also have to face playing away from a dome. In two games played outdoors, though, Hartley is 5 for 6, with his only miss coming on five attempts against the Redskins in his first game. He also missed one extra point, but is perfect in the playoffs. On punt returns, Reggie Bush had a fairly poor season, averaging less than 5 yards per return while fair catching only a quarter of punts fielded. He has come on strong in the playoffs, though, with a return for a touchdown. Take away that 83 yarder, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per. Not great, but almost double his regular season output. On kick returns, Courtney Roby had a strong 27.5 yards per during the season, which has gone down to 25,7 in the postseason. Like Simpson, he also has a return for a score. Across from him, Pierre Thomas is almost as dangerous, with one return for 40 yards in the playoffs.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
First of all, congratulations to Matt Stover for being the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl. With Adam Vinatieri being held out after injuring his leg during the season, Stover came in and did an excellent job as his replacement. He was perfect on extra points and made 9 of 11 field goals in the regular season, which isn't great, but is good enough considering the Colts don't kick many field goals. In the playoffs, he is a perfect 5 for 5 so far. Punting has been fairly strong, as well. Rookie Pat McAfee is averaging a third of his punts burying opponents inside their own 20, in both the playoffs and regular season. One thing they won't have going for them this week is playing in a dome. With Sun Life Stadium being open air, they'll have to adjust for wind instead of the stillness indoors. One of Stover's two missed field goals this year came outdoors against Houston, His one other outdoor attempt, of course, was good. The return game needs to improve though. Punt returner TJ Rushing was forced to fair catch half of the punts he fielded, and averaged less than 6 yards per return. If the Saints can get moving but have to kick, not being able to get off a good return could hurt. Kick returner Chad Simpson hasn't always been great, but he does have one return for a TD this season.
New Orleans Saints:
Like Stover, Garrett Hartley replaced another player, John Carney, who was cut for missing too many kicks. Hartley has done well, but he has two misses of his own, and his only attempt longer than 40 yards was one of them. Punter Thomas Morstead attempted less punts than McAfee, and has a lower percentage of punts inside the 20, but he averages only about half a yard per punt less, and both have a long of 60 yards. Like the Colts, the Saints kickers will also have to face playing away from a dome. In two games played outdoors, though, Hartley is 5 for 6, with his only miss coming on five attempts against the Redskins in his first game. He also missed one extra point, but is perfect in the playoffs. On punt returns, Reggie Bush had a fairly poor season, averaging less than 5 yards per return while fair catching only a quarter of punts fielded. He has come on strong in the playoffs, though, with a return for a touchdown. Take away that 83 yarder, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per. Not great, but almost double his regular season output. On kick returns, Courtney Roby had a strong 27.5 yards per during the season, which has gone down to 25,7 in the postseason. Like Simpson, he also has a return for a score. Across from him, Pierre Thomas is almost as dangerous, with one return for 40 yards in the playoffs.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Backs
Indianapolis Colts:
Quick, name two members of the Colts secondary. If you said Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, you're wrong. Sanders is injured, as usual, leaving Melvin Bullitt to take his place. At the corners, there's Kelvin Hayden and rookie Jerraud Powers. Between them, they have 5 picks, four belonging to Bethea. The fact that they had the 14th ranked pass defense is due more to the defense they apply than the abilities of their secondary. The Cover 2 is designed to force short passes and not give up a big play. A decent group of corners and safeties can run it effectively, and that's what they've gone. The group isn't great, but it can run a Cover 2 effectively.
Colts Defensive Backs vs Saints Receivers:
The Saints can and will spread the ball around, so the Colts need to do the same with their secondary. Running a zone-heavy gameplan, with corners dropping back rather than staying in the flats, can stop quick passes. Bethea over the top to one side of the field can take away much of that side. The one concern then becomes the side covered by Bullitt. I'd imagine that side will be victimized early, until the Colts can adjust.
New Orleans Saints:
The typical "sit back and wait" gameplan of the Saints defense may be tested this week. Usually, they force the other team to pass by building up a lead, then take advantage of mistakes. The Colts pass a lot anyway, and Peyton Manning doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Good for the Saints then that Darren Sharper doesn't always need mistakes to happen to make a play. He tied a career high with nine picks this year, and set a new career high by returning three for TDs. He'll mostly be used to help out Tracy Porter, who is young and inexperienced, but still managed 4 picks of his own. Across from him is Jabari Greer, who totaled another 2 picks and 13 passes defensed. The only hole in coverage may be SS Roman Harper, but he's used more for his abilities as a run stopper.
Saints Defensive Backs vs Colts Receivers:
The Saints will need to find a way to stop Peyton Manning, pure and simple. If they can cover his receivers, he has nowhere to go. That's no easy task. Even if they can cover Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon, they still have to worry about Dallas Clark. Zone defense will be the key for the Saints, too. There aren't many safeties in the NFL as good as Sharper at disappearing in their zone. If they can find a way to confuse Manning by disguising coverages, even just a little, they can shut down the passing game enough to win.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Quick, name two members of the Colts secondary. If you said Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, you're wrong. Sanders is injured, as usual, leaving Melvin Bullitt to take his place. At the corners, there's Kelvin Hayden and rookie Jerraud Powers. Between them, they have 5 picks, four belonging to Bethea. The fact that they had the 14th ranked pass defense is due more to the defense they apply than the abilities of their secondary. The Cover 2 is designed to force short passes and not give up a big play. A decent group of corners and safeties can run it effectively, and that's what they've gone. The group isn't great, but it can run a Cover 2 effectively.
Colts Defensive Backs vs Saints Receivers:
The Saints can and will spread the ball around, so the Colts need to do the same with their secondary. Running a zone-heavy gameplan, with corners dropping back rather than staying in the flats, can stop quick passes. Bethea over the top to one side of the field can take away much of that side. The one concern then becomes the side covered by Bullitt. I'd imagine that side will be victimized early, until the Colts can adjust.
New Orleans Saints:
The typical "sit back and wait" gameplan of the Saints defense may be tested this week. Usually, they force the other team to pass by building up a lead, then take advantage of mistakes. The Colts pass a lot anyway, and Peyton Manning doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Good for the Saints then that Darren Sharper doesn't always need mistakes to happen to make a play. He tied a career high with nine picks this year, and set a new career high by returning three for TDs. He'll mostly be used to help out Tracy Porter, who is young and inexperienced, but still managed 4 picks of his own. Across from him is Jabari Greer, who totaled another 2 picks and 13 passes defensed. The only hole in coverage may be SS Roman Harper, but he's used more for his abilities as a run stopper.
Saints Defensive Backs vs Colts Receivers:
The Saints will need to find a way to stop Peyton Manning, pure and simple. If they can cover his receivers, he has nowhere to go. That's no easy task. Even if they can cover Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon, they still have to worry about Dallas Clark. Zone defense will be the key for the Saints, too. There aren't many safeties in the NFL as good as Sharper at disappearing in their zone. If they can find a way to confuse Manning by disguising coverages, even just a little, they can shut down the passing game enough to win.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Linebackers
Indianapolis Colts:
No one will ever tell you the Colts have a dominant group of linebackers. Do they have a nose for the ball? Sure. Clint Sessions recorded 103 tackles, and Gary Brackett had 99 of his own. But between those two and Philip Wheeler, they total only 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. A Cover 2 defense relies on LBs to drop into coverage and protect the middle of the field against the passing game. They also need to be able to recognize the run at the same time. The Colt's LBs just aren't good enough at doing both.
Colts Linebackers vs Saints Running Backs:
The Saints like to get to the outside, which is good if they can get to Wheeler's side. He is the least experienced of the LBs, and Brackett and Sessions don't have the block shedding ability to keep the Saint's runners out of the secondary. In the passing game, where the Saints like to hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield, the Colts have the ability to apply solid coverage. If the Saints shy away from the short passes and go to the run, it could be a long day for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints:
If the Colts don't have a dominant group of linebackers, then the Saints have a slightly dominant one. Johnathan Vilma may be the only one who topped 70 tackles, with 110, but that is what you want in a middle linebacker. He also finshed the season with 2 sacks, 3 picks, and 8 passes defensed, which is about as good as the Colts as a whole. On the outsides, Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita combined for a sack, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles of their own. The fact that the Saints played against more passing plays than running plays due to their big early leads probably skews the tackle numbers a bit, as well.
Saints Linebackers vs Colts Running Backs:
Is this even a competition? The Colts have a terrible running game. While Donald Brown may be able to gain a few extra yards if he can keep running straight ahead, Joseph Addai doesn't have the escapability and speed to get to the outside that he used to. Don't look for the Colt's runners to break any long ones, look for them to be tied up quickly by the Saint's linebackers.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
No one will ever tell you the Colts have a dominant group of linebackers. Do they have a nose for the ball? Sure. Clint Sessions recorded 103 tackles, and Gary Brackett had 99 of his own. But between those two and Philip Wheeler, they total only 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. A Cover 2 defense relies on LBs to drop into coverage and protect the middle of the field against the passing game. They also need to be able to recognize the run at the same time. The Colt's LBs just aren't good enough at doing both.
Colts Linebackers vs Saints Running Backs:
The Saints like to get to the outside, which is good if they can get to Wheeler's side. He is the least experienced of the LBs, and Brackett and Sessions don't have the block shedding ability to keep the Saint's runners out of the secondary. In the passing game, where the Saints like to hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield, the Colts have the ability to apply solid coverage. If the Saints shy away from the short passes and go to the run, it could be a long day for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints:
If the Colts don't have a dominant group of linebackers, then the Saints have a slightly dominant one. Johnathan Vilma may be the only one who topped 70 tackles, with 110, but that is what you want in a middle linebacker. He also finshed the season with 2 sacks, 3 picks, and 8 passes defensed, which is about as good as the Colts as a whole. On the outsides, Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita combined for a sack, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles of their own. The fact that the Saints played against more passing plays than running plays due to their big early leads probably skews the tackle numbers a bit, as well.
Saints Linebackers vs Colts Running Backs:
Is this even a competition? The Colts have a terrible running game. While Donald Brown may be able to gain a few extra yards if he can keep running straight ahead, Joseph Addai doesn't have the escapability and speed to get to the outside that he used to. Don't look for the Colt's runners to break any long ones, look for them to be tied up quickly by the Saint's linebackers.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Monday, February 1, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Lines
Indianapolis Colts:
Normally this would be open and shut. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best defensive ends in football. Since he entered the league, no one has more sacks and tackles for loss than Freeney. Both players have incredible speed off the ball, and are two of the best in the league at anticipating snap counts. Unfortunately, the Colts announced last night that Freeney has a torn ligament in what was previously thought to be a minor ankle sprain. He's currently listed as questionable, and he may not even play. Even if he does, his speed and mobility will be severly diminished. The upside is that his backup, Raheem Brock, may not have Freeney's speed, but he he does come pretty close to his playmaking ability. On the interior, tackles Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson may not be the run stuffers you'd like to see in the middle, but at 310 lbs each, they are perfectly competent at their position. Unfortunately, competent may not be good enough against Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.
Colts Defensive Line vs Saints Offensive Line:
With neither team having a true noise advantage from playing at home, the Colts have the advantage on the outside, while the Saints have it in the interior. Jonathan Stinchcomb, the second-oldest member of the line behind center Jonathan Goodwin, will be tasked with stopping Mathis's speed all day. On the other side, Jermon Bushrod will have to be working on his footwork all week to stop the speed/size combo of Freeney and Brock. On the inside, the Saints guards and center are more than equal the size of the Colts tackles. It won't be easy for them, especially if the Colts start sending blitzes up the middle, but it shouldn't be a problem they can't overcome.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have almost the same problem as the Colts, except they already know DE Charles Grant won't be playing. Grant isn't as big a hit as Freeney is, so while Bobby McCray may be smaller, he should be able to at least do a decent job as a replacement. The big player on the line is on the other side, as Will Smith put up a career high in sacks this year with 13, along with three forced fumbles and his first career interception. On the interior, the Saints don't match up with the Colts at all. Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele may eaqual the size of Muir and Johnson, but they have half the talent. The fact that the Saints rush defense finished the season better than the Colts is due more to the abilities of their linebackers than their linemen.
Saints Defensive Line vs Colts Offensive Line:
Smith may be the only lineman who could have trouble this week. He'll be going against tackle Ryan Diem, the largest member of the Colts line. The rest of the line is undersized, a weakness that shows up in the fact that their running game is ranked last in the NFL. When your team passes as much as the Colts do, run blocking doesn't matter too much. When your QB can read a defense as well as Peyton Manning does, pass blocking doesn't matter much, either. So when you have a mostly mediocre defensive line going against a mostly mediocre offensive line with the best QB in the league, line-play takes a bit of a backseat to everything else.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Normally this would be open and shut. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best defensive ends in football. Since he entered the league, no one has more sacks and tackles for loss than Freeney. Both players have incredible speed off the ball, and are two of the best in the league at anticipating snap counts. Unfortunately, the Colts announced last night that Freeney has a torn ligament in what was previously thought to be a minor ankle sprain. He's currently listed as questionable, and he may not even play. Even if he does, his speed and mobility will be severly diminished. The upside is that his backup, Raheem Brock, may not have Freeney's speed, but he he does come pretty close to his playmaking ability. On the interior, tackles Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson may not be the run stuffers you'd like to see in the middle, but at 310 lbs each, they are perfectly competent at their position. Unfortunately, competent may not be good enough against Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.
Colts Defensive Line vs Saints Offensive Line:
With neither team having a true noise advantage from playing at home, the Colts have the advantage on the outside, while the Saints have it in the interior. Jonathan Stinchcomb, the second-oldest member of the line behind center Jonathan Goodwin, will be tasked with stopping Mathis's speed all day. On the other side, Jermon Bushrod will have to be working on his footwork all week to stop the speed/size combo of Freeney and Brock. On the inside, the Saints guards and center are more than equal the size of the Colts tackles. It won't be easy for them, especially if the Colts start sending blitzes up the middle, but it shouldn't be a problem they can't overcome.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have almost the same problem as the Colts, except they already know DE Charles Grant won't be playing. Grant isn't as big a hit as Freeney is, so while Bobby McCray may be smaller, he should be able to at least do a decent job as a replacement. The big player on the line is on the other side, as Will Smith put up a career high in sacks this year with 13, along with three forced fumbles and his first career interception. On the interior, the Saints don't match up with the Colts at all. Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele may eaqual the size of Muir and Johnson, but they have half the talent. The fact that the Saints rush defense finished the season better than the Colts is due more to the abilities of their linebackers than their linemen.
Saints Defensive Line vs Colts Offensive Line:
Smith may be the only lineman who could have trouble this week. He'll be going against tackle Ryan Diem, the largest member of the Colts line. The rest of the line is undersized, a weakness that shows up in the fact that their running game is ranked last in the NFL. When your team passes as much as the Colts do, run blocking doesn't matter too much. When your QB can read a defense as well as Peyton Manning does, pass blocking doesn't matter much, either. So when you have a mostly mediocre defensive line going against a mostly mediocre offensive line with the best QB in the league, line-play takes a bit of a backseat to everything else.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Friday, January 29, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Offensive Lines
Indianapolis Colts:
The good news: Peyton Manning wa sonly sacked 10 times during the regular season. The bad news: the holes needed to get the running game going aren't there, and Manning has been sacked 4 times in the postseason. Center Jeff Saturday and tackle Ryan Diem are getting up there in years, but I'd put the reason for the lack of a run block more on the youth of the rest of the line. Still, it is impressive that a QB who isn't very mobile was only sacked 10 times. I have to think that has more to do with Manning's ability to read a defense than strictly good blocking, but that shouldn't take away from the fact this is a strong line that still has a lot to learn. They aren't great, but they fit perfectly into the Colts gameplan.
Colts Offensive Line vs Saints Defensive Line:
The Saints have a solid line, but it isn't the strength of their defense. If they get any sacks at all, it probably won't be from their linemen. The Colts linemen also benefit from the fact that they can practice against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis all season. They should be able to have solid protection against the Saints front, and if they need to run in short situations, they've shown they are capable of hitting their blocks..
New Orleans Saints:
Like the Colts, this is a line with some youth on it. The line overall seems to be better than the Colts, though. They know where to be to give Drew Brees a passing window, and even though the Saints tend to run to the outside more, they can open interior holes pretty well, too. Brees may have been sacked 20 times this year, but that's about average for his career.
Saints Offensive Line vs Colts Defensive Line:
The Saints line will face a huge test in trying to stop Mathis and Freeney. You have to wonder if Jonathan Stinchcomb, at 30-years-old, has the footspeed to get a block on the Colts speed-based defense. He may not really have to, though. The Saints are very good at running screens and draws. A few at the right time could be enough to slow down the Colts line. The other advantage they have is Freeney will be playing with a sprained ankle suffered last week against the Jets. It won't hold him out, but it should slow him down and possibly limit his playing time.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
The good news: Peyton Manning wa sonly sacked 10 times during the regular season. The bad news: the holes needed to get the running game going aren't there, and Manning has been sacked 4 times in the postseason. Center Jeff Saturday and tackle Ryan Diem are getting up there in years, but I'd put the reason for the lack of a run block more on the youth of the rest of the line. Still, it is impressive that a QB who isn't very mobile was only sacked 10 times. I have to think that has more to do with Manning's ability to read a defense than strictly good blocking, but that shouldn't take away from the fact this is a strong line that still has a lot to learn. They aren't great, but they fit perfectly into the Colts gameplan.
Colts Offensive Line vs Saints Defensive Line:
The Saints have a solid line, but it isn't the strength of their defense. If they get any sacks at all, it probably won't be from their linemen. The Colts linemen also benefit from the fact that they can practice against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis all season. They should be able to have solid protection against the Saints front, and if they need to run in short situations, they've shown they are capable of hitting their blocks..
New Orleans Saints:
Like the Colts, this is a line with some youth on it. The line overall seems to be better than the Colts, though. They know where to be to give Drew Brees a passing window, and even though the Saints tend to run to the outside more, they can open interior holes pretty well, too. Brees may have been sacked 20 times this year, but that's about average for his career.
Saints Offensive Line vs Colts Defensive Line:
The Saints line will face a huge test in trying to stop Mathis and Freeney. You have to wonder if Jonathan Stinchcomb, at 30-years-old, has the footspeed to get a block on the Colts speed-based defense. He may not really have to, though. The Saints are very good at running screens and draws. A few at the right time could be enough to slow down the Colts line. The other advantage they have is Freeney will be playing with a sprained ankle suffered last week against the Jets. It won't hold him out, but it should slow him down and possibly limit his playing time.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Receivers/Tight Ends
Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts are built differently than other teams. Where most teams have a #1, #2, #3, etc receiver, the Colts seem to have a #1, followed by a group of #2's. Even with Anthony Gonzalez going down early in the season, the Colts passing machine never missed a step. Rookie Austin Collie and two-year vet Pierre Garcon not only picked up their own game to compensate, but they now lead the team in receptions and receiving yards in the postseason. Reggie Wayne is still target #1, though, as he should be. The receiving numbers are skewed due to Wayne being shut down by Darrelle Revis in the AFC Championship game. At tight end, the Colts have the best of both worlds. The prototypical blocking end of years passed is being replaced by tall, play-making ends who don't block well. Somehow, they found themselves with a hybrid of both. At 6' 3", Clark is one of the teams tallest receivers, and at 252 lbs, he is just 40 less than the Colts smallest lineman. Somehow, with all that size, he finds ways to make big plays downfield. This year, he had his first 100-reception and first 1,000-yard season. He also tied Wayne with a team-leading 10 TDs this season.
Colts Receivers vs Saints Defensive Backs:
The beauty of having a group of #2 receivers is that defenses can't match up. The Jets had an answer for Reggie Wayne and contained Dallas Clark, but they couldn't stop Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Where most teams match up LBs and safeties with a teams lower receivers, the Colts have too much talent for that kind of gameplan. As long as they can stay on the same page as Peyton Manning, any receiver on this team can blow up for a big game at any time.
New Orleans Saints:
Saints receivers aren't flashy, they just make big plays. Four members of the Saints receiving corps have receptions over 50 yards. Those same four also have over 500 yards receiving, each. What the Saints don't have is a dominant receiver that Drew Brees can keep going to. After Marques Colston's team-leading 70 receptions, six players have between 35 and 51 catches each. For a team that relies on passing to score and running to drain the clock with a lead, spreading the ball is good. However, with Colston shut down by Darrelle Revis in Week 4, Brees was forced to throw a lot of dump-off passes, couldn't top 200 yards, and the team only scored 10 offensive points. I would be concerned if the loss of one offensive weapon had that much effect on my team.
Saints Receivers vs Colts Defensive Backs:
Thankfully for the Saints, the Colts don't have a Darrelle Revis-calibre corner. Their receivers may not be the tallest in the league, but they have speed on their side. They use that speed to their advantage, but lack the ability to make plays to get open if you take that away from them. One receiver may have a big game against the fast Colts secondary, but as a group, they'll be limited.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are built differently than other teams. Where most teams have a #1, #2, #3, etc receiver, the Colts seem to have a #1, followed by a group of #2's. Even with Anthony Gonzalez going down early in the season, the Colts passing machine never missed a step. Rookie Austin Collie and two-year vet Pierre Garcon not only picked up their own game to compensate, but they now lead the team in receptions and receiving yards in the postseason. Reggie Wayne is still target #1, though, as he should be. The receiving numbers are skewed due to Wayne being shut down by Darrelle Revis in the AFC Championship game. At tight end, the Colts have the best of both worlds. The prototypical blocking end of years passed is being replaced by tall, play-making ends who don't block well. Somehow, they found themselves with a hybrid of both. At 6' 3", Clark is one of the teams tallest receivers, and at 252 lbs, he is just 40 less than the Colts smallest lineman. Somehow, with all that size, he finds ways to make big plays downfield. This year, he had his first 100-reception and first 1,000-yard season. He also tied Wayne with a team-leading 10 TDs this season.
Colts Receivers vs Saints Defensive Backs:
The beauty of having a group of #2 receivers is that defenses can't match up. The Jets had an answer for Reggie Wayne and contained Dallas Clark, but they couldn't stop Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Where most teams match up LBs and safeties with a teams lower receivers, the Colts have too much talent for that kind of gameplan. As long as they can stay on the same page as Peyton Manning, any receiver on this team can blow up for a big game at any time.
New Orleans Saints:
Saints receivers aren't flashy, they just make big plays. Four members of the Saints receiving corps have receptions over 50 yards. Those same four also have over 500 yards receiving, each. What the Saints don't have is a dominant receiver that Drew Brees can keep going to. After Marques Colston's team-leading 70 receptions, six players have between 35 and 51 catches each. For a team that relies on passing to score and running to drain the clock with a lead, spreading the ball is good. However, with Colston shut down by Darrelle Revis in Week 4, Brees was forced to throw a lot of dump-off passes, couldn't top 200 yards, and the team only scored 10 offensive points. I would be concerned if the loss of one offensive weapon had that much effect on my team.
Saints Receivers vs Colts Defensive Backs:
Thankfully for the Saints, the Colts don't have a Darrelle Revis-calibre corner. Their receivers may not be the tallest in the league, but they have speed on their side. They use that speed to their advantage, but lack the ability to make plays to get open if you take that away from them. One receiver may have a big game against the fast Colts secondary, but as a group, they'll be limited.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Running Backs
Indianapolis Colts:
Do the Colts even use running backs anymore? Or have they given over completely to the "new NFL" of passing at all times? No, they have running backs. You wouldn't know it from their running game, ranked last in the NFL. Where a 1,000 yard rusher used to be typical on a Super Bowl team, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown barely passed 1,100 yards combined. Neither player topped 3.9 yards per carry. While Addai topped 1,000 yards his first two seasons, he seams to have lost his escapability since missing four games last season. Brown is in his rookie season, and while he's shown some elusiveness when he gets the ball, he isn't polished enough take many carries away from Addai. If there is a weakness on the Colts offense, this is it.
Colts Runners vs Saints Linebackers:
Yards are there for the taking in the running game. Lacking spead to outrun defenders will hurt the Colts, as the Saints LBs are known more for their tackling and backfield pursuit than being able to run down a ball carrier. If they can get through the defensive line up the middle, they may be able to catch a defender out of position. Otherwise, it looks like a tough day to be a Colts RB.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints are known for their passing game, but they can run the ball almost as well. Their offense was first in the league this year, and that is thanks to their 6th ranked rush offense as much as their 4th ranked passing game. Like the Colts, they didn't have a 1,000 yard rusher, either. Instead, they seem to have found the perfect balance in the backfield. Pierre Thomas has clearly emerged as the #1 back, with Mike Bell providing short yardage and the ability to break a long run if he gets free. Reggie Bush is coming on more and more with each game. He may contribute more on special teams so far, but he has also shown himself to be an excellent change-of-pace back. Between the three of them, they totaled 16 TDs, split evenly between them.
Saints Runners vs Colts Linebackers:
What the Saints have in the backfield is speed. They'll need it against a fast Colts defense. Sticking with Thomas as the feature back and mixing Bush in every fifth play or so could be enough to wear down a small and, in some places, aging Colts linebacker corps.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Do the Colts even use running backs anymore? Or have they given over completely to the "new NFL" of passing at all times? No, they have running backs. You wouldn't know it from their running game, ranked last in the NFL. Where a 1,000 yard rusher used to be typical on a Super Bowl team, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown barely passed 1,100 yards combined. Neither player topped 3.9 yards per carry. While Addai topped 1,000 yards his first two seasons, he seams to have lost his escapability since missing four games last season. Brown is in his rookie season, and while he's shown some elusiveness when he gets the ball, he isn't polished enough take many carries away from Addai. If there is a weakness on the Colts offense, this is it.
Colts Runners vs Saints Linebackers:
Yards are there for the taking in the running game. Lacking spead to outrun defenders will hurt the Colts, as the Saints LBs are known more for their tackling and backfield pursuit than being able to run down a ball carrier. If they can get through the defensive line up the middle, they may be able to catch a defender out of position. Otherwise, it looks like a tough day to be a Colts RB.
New Orleans Saints:
The Saints are known for their passing game, but they can run the ball almost as well. Their offense was first in the league this year, and that is thanks to their 6th ranked rush offense as much as their 4th ranked passing game. Like the Colts, they didn't have a 1,000 yard rusher, either. Instead, they seem to have found the perfect balance in the backfield. Pierre Thomas has clearly emerged as the #1 back, with Mike Bell providing short yardage and the ability to break a long run if he gets free. Reggie Bush is coming on more and more with each game. He may contribute more on special teams so far, but he has also shown himself to be an excellent change-of-pace back. Between the three of them, they totaled 16 TDs, split evenly between them.
Saints Runners vs Colts Linebackers:
What the Saints have in the backfield is speed. They'll need it against a fast Colts defense. Sticking with Thomas as the feature back and mixing Bush in every fifth play or so could be enough to wear down a small and, in some places, aging Colts linebacker corps.
Edge: New Orleans Saints
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Quarterbacks
Indianapolis Colts:
How do you go against Peyton Manning in any situation? With a group of mostly young, inexperienced receivers this season, he had his highest career completion percentage, his second highest yardage total, and tied his second highest TD total. With barely a running game, he has almost single handedly carried the team this season. In this year's playoffs, he has already beaten a tough Baltimore Raven defense and put up almost 400 yards, 3 TDs, and a 123.6 passer rating against the NY Jets #1 ranked passing defense. Manning has the pure talent and off-field dedication to adjust to any defense, find its weakness, and exploit it. Against the Jets, he threw out the idea of passing to Reggie Wayne, who was blanketed by Darrelle Revis, and hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon for over 100 yards each. Sure, his playoff record is only 9-8, but he does have a Super Bowl ring on his resume. With a Super Bowl on the line, I can't think of many QBs in NFL history I'd rather have on my team.
New Orleans Saints:
Drew Brees was once considered a deviation from the norm at QB. He's too short, he's too small, he can't make plays because he can't see over the linemen. If you want proof, look no further than 2005. After passing for a then-career high 3,576 yards, the San Diego Chargers let Brees go to free agency in favor of Philip Rivers. Brees responded in 2006 by passing for 4,418 yards and 26 TDs with the Saints, earning a spot on the NFC Pro Bowl team. This year saw a drop off in yardage as he had his lowest yardage total as a Saint, due mostly to being rested in Week 17. However, he tied last season's career high for TDs, had one of his lowest years for picks, and also had a career high 109.6 passer rating. Manning may be the best at leading his team on the field, but I doubt there is a QB that works harder to be the best than Brees. Still, with all his great play for the Chargers and Saints, this is his first Super Bowl, and the first for New Orleans. He'll be going against a team that still has key players on it from their last Super Bowl, both on offense and defense. Brees isn't the type to fall to pressure, though. Even in the Saint's loss to Dallas, their first loss this season, he threw for almost 300 yards, completed 64.4% of his passes, threw only 1 pick, and had an 81.5 passer rating. The following week, in their loss to Tampa Bay, Brees completed 32 of 37 passes and had a 104.7 passer rating. No matter which team loses, it probably won't be the result of their QB's play.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
How do you go against Peyton Manning in any situation? With a group of mostly young, inexperienced receivers this season, he had his highest career completion percentage, his second highest yardage total, and tied his second highest TD total. With barely a running game, he has almost single handedly carried the team this season. In this year's playoffs, he has already beaten a tough Baltimore Raven defense and put up almost 400 yards, 3 TDs, and a 123.6 passer rating against the NY Jets #1 ranked passing defense. Manning has the pure talent and off-field dedication to adjust to any defense, find its weakness, and exploit it. Against the Jets, he threw out the idea of passing to Reggie Wayne, who was blanketed by Darrelle Revis, and hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon for over 100 yards each. Sure, his playoff record is only 9-8, but he does have a Super Bowl ring on his resume. With a Super Bowl on the line, I can't think of many QBs in NFL history I'd rather have on my team.
New Orleans Saints:
Drew Brees was once considered a deviation from the norm at QB. He's too short, he's too small, he can't make plays because he can't see over the linemen. If you want proof, look no further than 2005. After passing for a then-career high 3,576 yards, the San Diego Chargers let Brees go to free agency in favor of Philip Rivers. Brees responded in 2006 by passing for 4,418 yards and 26 TDs with the Saints, earning a spot on the NFC Pro Bowl team. This year saw a drop off in yardage as he had his lowest yardage total as a Saint, due mostly to being rested in Week 17. However, he tied last season's career high for TDs, had one of his lowest years for picks, and also had a career high 109.6 passer rating. Manning may be the best at leading his team on the field, but I doubt there is a QB that works harder to be the best than Brees. Still, with all his great play for the Chargers and Saints, this is his first Super Bowl, and the first for New Orleans. He'll be going against a team that still has key players on it from their last Super Bowl, both on offense and defense. Brees isn't the type to fall to pressure, though. Even in the Saint's loss to Dallas, their first loss this season, he threw for almost 300 yards, completed 64.4% of his passes, threw only 1 pick, and had an 81.5 passer rating. The following week, in their loss to Tampa Bay, Brees completed 32 of 37 passes and had a 104.7 passer rating. No matter which team loses, it probably won't be the result of their QB's play.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Monday, January 25, 2010
NFL Conference Championship Weekend Wrap-up
It was a tough weekend for rookies and old people, and now the Super Bowl is set:
Indianapolis Colts 30 - NY Jets 17
To look at this game and try to analyze it would be impossible if taken as a whole. The fact of the matter is, this was really two diffferent games. One the Jets won, 17-6, and the other the Colts won, 24-0. For the first 27:49, the Jets controlled every part of the game. They kept Peyton Manning out of the end zone. They made big plays. They controlled the ball. Then, with 2:11 left in the first half, the Colts put together their first TD drive of the game. The Jets still led, 17-14, but things seemed to change on that drive. They seemed to suddenly be less agressive, both on offense and defense. Their blitz packages, which sacked Manning on back-to-back offensive plays, suddenly weren't getting through. The deep passes that led to both TDs were replaced with short throws. The loss of Shonn Greene at the start of the second half greatly hurt the running game. Manning used the lack of depth in the Jets secondary to hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on pass after pass. The Jets offense played well, but not good enough to win. Their defense played dominant football to start the game, but gave up too many plays and too much yardage in the second half. The Colts, as an entire team, made the correct adjustments throughout the game, and won a game they clearly deserved to win.
Indianapolis Colts 30 - NY Jets 17
To look at this game and try to analyze it would be impossible if taken as a whole. The fact of the matter is, this was really two diffferent games. One the Jets won, 17-6, and the other the Colts won, 24-0. For the first 27:49, the Jets controlled every part of the game. They kept Peyton Manning out of the end zone. They made big plays. They controlled the ball. Then, with 2:11 left in the first half, the Colts put together their first TD drive of the game. The Jets still led, 17-14, but things seemed to change on that drive. They seemed to suddenly be less agressive, both on offense and defense. Their blitz packages, which sacked Manning on back-to-back offensive plays, suddenly weren't getting through. The deep passes that led to both TDs were replaced with short throws. The loss of Shonn Greene at the start of the second half greatly hurt the running game. Manning used the lack of depth in the Jets secondary to hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on pass after pass. The Jets offense played well, but not good enough to win. Their defense played dominant football to start the game, but gave up too many plays and too much yardage in the second half. The Colts, as an entire team, made the correct adjustments throughout the game, and won a game they clearly deserved to win.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
NFL Divisional Weekend Wrap-up
Blowouts galore in the Divisional Round. Well, except for the Jets:
New Orleans Saints 45 - Arizona Cardinals 14
Surprisingly, the first game of the weekend set the tone for most of the games: blowouts. What was expected to be a high scoring game between two high powered offenses turned into a one sided Saints victory pretty quickly. The Cards scored first, on a 70-yard run by Tim Hightower, but that was followed by three unanswered scores, and the Saints led 21-7 after one quarter. The Cards scored first again in the second, and it would be their final score of the game. The Saints went on to lead 35-10 at the half, but the game was pretty much over when Drew Brees hit Devery Henderson on a flea flicker for a 44-yard TD just three minutes after Arizona's last score. The story underneath the Saints offensive explosion is how the Cards couldn't get any offense going. Kurt Warner barely passed 200 yards, though he was limited after taking a huge hit in the second quarter, and was ultimately pulled later in the second half. Take away the 70-yard run, and Hightower and Beenie Wells only had 24 yards on 10 carries. Two major questions are left after this game. The first is on the future of Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Speculation says that he is planning on retiring, but that's up in the air after how the Cards went out. Those concussions have to be weighing heavily on his shoulders as he makes a decision. The loss of Warner would leave only Matt Leinart, so far considered a draft bust, as the leading candidate to take over the offense. The second question is simply how do you stop the Saints? Brees threw for three scores this week, and often made the Cards D look silly. Reggie Bush is suddenly playing like the runner he was expected to be out of college. Add to that his ability on returns, where he had another TD this week, and he adds a completely new dimension to the team. The Saints are clearly an offensive triple-threat now, able to score from anywhere on the field by passing, running, and on special teams. They'll be hard to stop from here on out, but it's always too early to crown a Super Bowl Champion before the game is played.
New Orleans Saints 45 - Arizona Cardinals 14
Surprisingly, the first game of the weekend set the tone for most of the games: blowouts. What was expected to be a high scoring game between two high powered offenses turned into a one sided Saints victory pretty quickly. The Cards scored first, on a 70-yard run by Tim Hightower, but that was followed by three unanswered scores, and the Saints led 21-7 after one quarter. The Cards scored first again in the second, and it would be their final score of the game. The Saints went on to lead 35-10 at the half, but the game was pretty much over when Drew Brees hit Devery Henderson on a flea flicker for a 44-yard TD just three minutes after Arizona's last score. The story underneath the Saints offensive explosion is how the Cards couldn't get any offense going. Kurt Warner barely passed 200 yards, though he was limited after taking a huge hit in the second quarter, and was ultimately pulled later in the second half. Take away the 70-yard run, and Hightower and Beenie Wells only had 24 yards on 10 carries. Two major questions are left after this game. The first is on the future of Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Speculation says that he is planning on retiring, but that's up in the air after how the Cards went out. Those concussions have to be weighing heavily on his shoulders as he makes a decision. The loss of Warner would leave only Matt Leinart, so far considered a draft bust, as the leading candidate to take over the offense. The second question is simply how do you stop the Saints? Brees threw for three scores this week, and often made the Cards D look silly. Reggie Bush is suddenly playing like the runner he was expected to be out of college. Add to that his ability on returns, where he had another TD this week, and he adds a completely new dimension to the team. The Saints are clearly an offensive triple-threat now, able to score from anywhere on the field by passing, running, and on special teams. They'll be hard to stop from here on out, but it's always too early to crown a Super Bowl Champion before the game is played.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
NFL 2009 Season Wrap-up
Boy, this was a crazy season, wasn't it?:
I Guess We Saw This Coming:
Indianapolis Colts
Did anyone really think things would be different this season? Sure, Jim Caldwell is in his first year as their head coach, but it isn't like they just grabbed some guy off the street. He spent the six previous seasons on the Colts coaching staff. Of course, there are those who say Peyton Manning is the real coach of the team. The may be true of how the offense plays on the field, since he makes so many adjustments and play changes at the line, but it's Caldwell and his staff that had to get this team prepared every week. He had a team that has been great every regular season, that hes been with for six seasons already, and that he simply had to prepare for every game. Going 14-0 may have been a surprise only in that they played so many close games. Really, the Colts have been the best team in their division for years, and the winningest team of the decade. As long as they keep things together, they should be expected to be the NFL's best team almost every year.
I Guess We Saw This Coming:
Indianapolis Colts
Did anyone really think things would be different this season? Sure, Jim Caldwell is in his first year as their head coach, but it isn't like they just grabbed some guy off the street. He spent the six previous seasons on the Colts coaching staff. Of course, there are those who say Peyton Manning is the real coach of the team. The may be true of how the offense plays on the field, since he makes so many adjustments and play changes at the line, but it's Caldwell and his staff that had to get this team prepared every week. He had a team that has been great every regular season, that hes been with for six seasons already, and that he simply had to prepare for every game. Going 14-0 may have been a surprise only in that they played so many close games. Really, the Colts have been the best team in their division for years, and the winningest team of the decade. As long as they keep things together, they should be expected to be the NFL's best team almost every year.
Monday, January 4, 2010
NFL Sunday Recap - End of the Regular Season Edition!
Ok, so after taking a week off for the post-Christmas/New Year period, its time to look at some playoff teams:
NFC Top Seeds:
New Orleans Saints
The Saints looked great for 14 weeks, the terrible the last three. Of course, they weren't helped by sitting Drew Brees this week. They managed to finish in the top six of every major team offensive category, but 20th or worse in every defensive category. Their plan should have been to work on their mistakes in the final game of the season, then take the week off. Instead, the rested players and lost to the Carolina Panthers, 23-10. They have two weeks to fix things now, but that also means two weeks for rust to collect. The only good knews they have right now is that they can't play Dallas, the team that gave them their first loss, as their first opponent. That news actually isn't all that great when you consider that their potential opponents are Green Bay, Philly, and defending NFC Champ Arizona.
NFC Top Seeds:
New Orleans Saints
The Saints looked great for 14 weeks, the terrible the last three. Of course, they weren't helped by sitting Drew Brees this week. They managed to finish in the top six of every major team offensive category, but 20th or worse in every defensive category. Their plan should have been to work on their mistakes in the final game of the season, then take the week off. Instead, the rested players and lost to the Carolina Panthers, 23-10. They have two weeks to fix things now, but that also means two weeks for rust to collect. The only good knews they have right now is that they can't play Dallas, the team that gave them their first loss, as their first opponent. That news actually isn't all that great when you consider that their potential opponents are Green Bay, Philly, and defending NFC Champ Arizona.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
NFL Week 15 Wrap-up
We've looked at playoff scenarios, we've looked at teams falling apart, now lets look at the top 5:
Just Barely Hanging On:
Philadelphia Eagles
I picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, then said they'd never win one with Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook on the team. I stand bye that second assertion. McNabb and Westbrook, as good as they are, are far to unreliable. However, with Westbrook back this week, and the potential to get some rest for McNabb soon, the Eagles have a shot if both can stay healthy for the playoffs. The teams ahead of them in the NFC all have flaws on defense that the Eagles can exploit. Even if they can stay healthy, that still leaves the Andy Reid problem. Reid has shown a tendency to implode in his playcalling at times, sticking with a singular gameplan when it isn't working. His overreliance on the pass earlier this year cost them a winable game against the Oakland Raiders. If it happens again against, say, the Saints, the Eagles could be headed for a quick playoff exit.
Just Barely Hanging On:
Philadelphia Eagles
I picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, then said they'd never win one with Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook on the team. I stand bye that second assertion. McNabb and Westbrook, as good as they are, are far to unreliable. However, with Westbrook back this week, and the potential to get some rest for McNabb soon, the Eagles have a shot if both can stay healthy for the playoffs. The teams ahead of them in the NFC all have flaws on defense that the Eagles can exploit. Even if they can stay healthy, that still leaves the Andy Reid problem. Reid has shown a tendency to implode in his playcalling at times, sticking with a singular gameplan when it isn't working. His overreliance on the pass earlier this year cost them a winable game against the Oakland Raiders. If it happens again against, say, the Saints, the Eagles could be headed for a quick playoff exit.
Monday, December 21, 2009
NFL Sunday Recap - Winners & Losers
Some people had a special weekend this week, and some didn't:
Winners:
Ben Roethlisberger
Seriously, at some point soon, the Steelers are going to need to realize Ben can't win every game on his own. Seven loses after winning the Super Bowl should be a wake-up call. But the call can wait another week, as Big Ben threw for a franchise record 503 yards. That and his 3 TDs are the most ever for a QB without throwing a pick. Of course, all that is just gravy to the 19-yard completion to Mike Wallace with no time on the clock that gave Pittsburgh a 37-36 win over the Packers. It was only Wallace's second reception of the game, and both were for TDs. Congrats, Big Ben! After five straight losses, you are a winner!
Winners:
Ben Roethlisberger
Seriously, at some point soon, the Steelers are going to need to realize Ben can't win every game on his own. Seven loses after winning the Super Bowl should be a wake-up call. But the call can wait another week, as Big Ben threw for a franchise record 503 yards. That and his 3 TDs are the most ever for a QB without throwing a pick. Of course, all that is just gravy to the 19-yard completion to Mike Wallace with no time on the clock that gave Pittsburgh a 37-36 win over the Packers. It was only Wallace's second reception of the game, and both were for TDs. Congrats, Big Ben! After five straight losses, you are a winner!
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
NFL Week 13 Wrap-up
Four games left, let's take a look at the playoff picture:
AFC:
The Indianapolis Colts have clinched the AFC South, and should clinch home-field in the playoffs with a win. The Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention based on record and tie-breakers.
East
The East in both conferences is the closest race from top to bottom. For the AFC, the New England Patriots are back on top, but barely. They split their games with the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins, but a win against Buffalo in Week 15 would give them tie-breakers against both. Unfortunately for the teams below them, the Pats only opponent with a winning record is the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. The good news is the Pats play two of their last four on the road, where their only win has been against the Buccaneers in a neutral site game in London. Down the stretch, I could see the Pats and Jets both going 2-2, and the Dolphins 1-3. That would give the Pats the division, and probably lock the rest out of the playoffs. The Bills are technically still alive, but they need to go 4-0, while the Pats go 0-4 and the Jets and Phins no better than 1-3.
AFC:
The Indianapolis Colts have clinched the AFC South, and should clinch home-field in the playoffs with a win. The Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention based on record and tie-breakers.
East
The East in both conferences is the closest race from top to bottom. For the AFC, the New England Patriots are back on top, but barely. They split their games with the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins, but a win against Buffalo in Week 15 would give them tie-breakers against both. Unfortunately for the teams below them, the Pats only opponent with a winning record is the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. The good news is the Pats play two of their last four on the road, where their only win has been against the Buccaneers in a neutral site game in London. Down the stretch, I could see the Pats and Jets both going 2-2, and the Dolphins 1-3. That would give the Pats the division, and probably lock the rest out of the playoffs. The Bills are technically still alive, but they need to go 4-0, while the Pats go 0-4 and the Jets and Phins no better than 1-3.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
NFL Week 12 Wrap-up
Theres a big divide between the best and worst in the NFL this here. So how do you stop the best, and how do you improve the worst?:
Stopping the Best:
Indianapolis Colts
I'm chosing the Colts to cover first because they have the most obvious flaws. Yes, they have the best passing game in the league. They have nothing else, though. Their running game is the second worst in the league. Their defense, though third in points allowed, really can't stop anybody when it comes down to it. They're products of playing in a week division. While they beat the powerful Patriots, it was due more to defensive breakdowns against Peyton Manning than anything else. Not to mention the Colts arguably biggest weakness, run defense, couldn't be exploited by a Pats team without much of a running game of their own. The key to beating the Colts is disguised agression. Manning has never been a very mobile QB. While he has improved from early in his career, he's still slow and can be brought down. The problem, of course, is how. The Colts are one of the best teams in the league at picking up the blitz, and Manning is probably the best in the league at reading and reacting to defenses. The best option, then, is to run the ball straight at the Colts D, and disguise blitzes as much as you can. I know it goes against NFL logic, but maybe the best strategy is to not show blitzes, ever. If Manning can't read a blitz coming, he can't react to it before the snap. Disguising a blitz as a Cover 2 defense on every play, in my opinion, would keep Manning from making the reads he has become famous for making.
Stopping the Best:
Indianapolis Colts
I'm chosing the Colts to cover first because they have the most obvious flaws. Yes, they have the best passing game in the league. They have nothing else, though. Their running game is the second worst in the league. Their defense, though third in points allowed, really can't stop anybody when it comes down to it. They're products of playing in a week division. While they beat the powerful Patriots, it was due more to defensive breakdowns against Peyton Manning than anything else. Not to mention the Colts arguably biggest weakness, run defense, couldn't be exploited by a Pats team without much of a running game of their own. The key to beating the Colts is disguised agression. Manning has never been a very mobile QB. While he has improved from early in his career, he's still slow and can be brought down. The problem, of course, is how. The Colts are one of the best teams in the league at picking up the blitz, and Manning is probably the best in the league at reading and reacting to defenses. The best option, then, is to run the ball straight at the Colts D, and disguise blitzes as much as you can. I know it goes against NFL logic, but maybe the best strategy is to not show blitzes, ever. If Manning can't read a blitz coming, he can't react to it before the snap. Disguising a blitz as a Cover 2 defense on every play, in my opinion, would keep Manning from making the reads he has become famous for making.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
NFL Week 9 Wrap-up
With every team having played 8 games, here's some midseason awards!
MVP:
Peyton Manning
With his Colts once again 8-0, Manning is the leader at the half-way point. His closest competition is Drew Brees, but Manning has a better completion percentage, more yards, and two less picks. I'm thinking Brees might win this at the end of the season, but Manning has a slim lead after 8 games.
Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
MVP:
Peyton Manning
With his Colts once again 8-0, Manning is the leader at the half-way point. His closest competition is Drew Brees, but Manning has a better completion percentage, more yards, and two less picks. I'm thinking Brees might win this at the end of the season, but Manning has a slim lead after 8 games.
Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
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