Monday, January 25, 2010

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Wrap-up

It was a tough weekend for rookies and old people, and now the Super Bowl is set:

Indianapolis Colts 30 - NY Jets 17
To look at this game and try to analyze it would be impossible if taken as a whole. The fact of the matter is, this was really two diffferent games. One the Jets won, 17-6, and the other the Colts won, 24-0. For the first 27:49, the Jets controlled every part of the game. They kept Peyton Manning out of the end zone. They made big plays. They controlled the ball. Then, with 2:11 left in the first half, the Colts put together their first TD drive of the game. The Jets still led, 17-14, but things seemed to change on that drive. They seemed to suddenly be less agressive, both on offense and defense. Their blitz packages, which sacked Manning on back-to-back offensive plays, suddenly weren't getting through. The deep passes that led to both TDs were replaced with short throws. The loss of Shonn Greene at the start of the second half greatly hurt the running game. Manning used the lack of depth in the Jets secondary to hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on pass after pass. The Jets offense played well, but not good enough to win. Their defense played dominant football to start the game, but gave up too many plays and too much yardage in the second half. The Colts, as an entire team, made the correct adjustments throughout the game, and won a game they clearly deserved to win.

New Orleans Saints 31 - Minnesota Vikings 28
Well, we certainly got what we hoped for with this game. It was a back-and-forth shootout right from the start. At least, that's what the scoreboard would tell you. The reality is, the Vikings dominated every facet of this game. They finished the game with twice as many first downs, 121 more passing yards, and 97 more rushing yards than the Saints. They also forced the Saints to punt seven times. But if defense wins championships, turnovers lose them. For all the yards they put up, the Vikes couldn't hold onto the ball when it mattered. They fumbled six times, losing three, and Brett Favre threw two picks. That doesn't even count the number of times the ball was fumbled after the runner was ruled down. If you saw Drew Brees only passed for 197 yards, and the Saints only had 68 yards rushing, you'd probably think they lost. Thanks to those turnovers and poor special teams play, the Saints were twice left with a short field that led to a TD. The Vikings inability to hold onto the ball completely undermined a defense that held the Saints to seven 3-and-outs. What it comes down to is that the Saints practically tried to give the game away, but the Vikings did give the game away. If the Saints play like this in the Super Bowl, there's no way they beat Manning and the Colts.

Three Heroes of the Wild Card Round

  1. Peyton Manning. His ability to pick apart a Jets defense that had him looking confused early in the game is the main reason why the Colts are going back to the Super Bowl.

  2. Pierre Garcon. His 11 catches are an AFC Championship Game record.
  3. Viking turnovers. Without them, the Saints probably lose this one 45-20.
Three Goats of the Wild Card Round:
  1. Brett Favre. His lost fumble and two picks made up more than half the Vike's turnover total.
  2. Jets secondary. Their blitzes in the first half gave way to weak pass coverage on the Colts second and third receivers.
  3. Vikings receivers. They may have put up big numbers for Favre, but they were responsible for the Vike's other two lost fumbles.

Playoff Picks:
Straight up: 1-1, 7-3 overall
ATS: 0-2, 6-4 overall
o/u: 2-0, 8-2 overall

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