Tuesday, January 19, 2010

NFL Divisional Weekend Wrap-up

Blowouts galore in the Divisional Round. Well, except for the Jets:

New Orleans Saints 45 - Arizona Cardinals 14
Surprisingly, the first game of the weekend set the tone for most of the games: blowouts. What was expected to be a high scoring game between two high powered offenses turned into a one sided Saints victory pretty quickly. The Cards scored first, on a 70-yard run by Tim Hightower, but that was followed by three unanswered scores, and the Saints led 21-7 after one quarter. The Cards scored first again in the second, and it would be their final score of the game. The Saints went on to lead 35-10 at the half, but the game was pretty much over when Drew Brees hit Devery Henderson on a flea flicker for a 44-yard TD just three minutes after Arizona's last score. The story underneath the Saints offensive explosion is how the Cards couldn't get any offense going. Kurt Warner barely passed 200 yards, though he was limited after taking a huge hit in the second quarter, and was ultimately pulled later in the second half. Take away the 70-yard run, and Hightower and Beenie Wells only had 24 yards on 10 carries. Two major questions are left after this game. The first is on the future of Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Speculation says that he is planning on retiring, but that's up in the air after how the Cards went out. Those concussions have to be weighing heavily on his shoulders as he makes a decision. The loss of Warner would leave only Matt Leinart, so far considered a draft bust, as the leading candidate to take over the offense. The second question is simply how do you stop the Saints? Brees threw for three scores this week, and often made the Cards D look silly. Reggie Bush is suddenly playing like the runner he was expected to be out of college. Add to that his ability on returns, where he had another TD this week, and he adds a completely new dimension to the team. The Saints are clearly an offensive triple-threat now, able to score from anywhere on the field by passing, running, and on special teams. They'll be hard to stop from here on out, but it's always too early to crown a Super Bowl Champion before the game is played.

Indianapolis Colts 20 - Baltimore Ravens 3
Based solely on the score, this game being a blowout is debateable. Some might consider a 17 point victory a blowout, some wouldn't. Going deeper into the stats, this game was clearly a near-total domination by the Colts. Obviously, the Colts have no running game, so I'm throwing those stats out. Their run defense, one of the league's worst, stopped a tough Ravens running game on almost every attempt, allowing only a 20-yard burst by Ray Rice, and even that play ended in a fumble, recovered by Indy. Peyton Manning completed 30 of 44 attempts, and his lone interception, like the Rice run, ended in Ed Reed fumbling the ball back to Indy. The pass defense only sacked Joe Flacco once, but they also had two picks, and held him to only 189 yards. Clearly, the Ravens were almost completely overmatched. This game doesn't take anything away from the Colt's chances, but it certainly doesn't hurt them, either.

Minnesota Vikings 34 - Dallas Cowboys 3
This was my lone incorrect pick on the weekend, and it looks like the result of the defenses swapping teams. After the Cowboys looked like the best team in the playoffs last week, the Vikings defense did what the Cowboys D should have. DeMarcus Ware and his linemates only managed three sacks, while Viking lineman Ray Edwards managed that number all by himself. Chad Greenway, Jimmy Kennedy, and Jared Allen each added one of their own as the Vikes harrassed anyone with the ball all game long. Back on defense, the Cowboys couldn't stop anything except Adrian Peterson, who averaged less than three yards per carry. Brett Favre completed pass after pass, ultimately going 15 for 24 with 4 TDs, two of them over 40 yards. The Dallas D forced no turnovers, and no fumbles at all. As a result, the Vikes can easily lay claim to the second-best offense still alive, but now they have to face #1 next week in the Super Dome.

NY Jets 17 - San Diego Chargers 14
The Jets are the only team left that wins the old-fashioned way: run the ball and play hard-nosed defense. They did both to near-perfection this week. The defense only had two sacks, but a good blitz does more than get to the QB. It forces mistakes. It was the blitz that led to Rivers's second pick, on a pass with no receiver ready to take it, and Jets safety Jim Leonhard the only player in the area. Though they trailed most of the game, the Chargers allowed the Jets to set the pace, and Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones pounded the ball. That pounding led to Greene's 53-yard run, in which he ran over safety Eric Weddle 7 yards down field and kept on going. Their passing game may still be a work in progress, but it managed to score the TD that put the Jets ahead for good. Of course, heading into Indy, the Jets will again be the underdog. Maybe they shouldn't be. Baltimore's D held the Colts to only 20 points, and the Jets run almost the same defense. The advantage the Jets have is their offense is better than the Ravens. Right now, I could just as easily see the Jets winning next week 24-21 as I could see them losing 20-17.

Three Heroes of the Wild Card Round

  1. The Vikings D-line. Tony Romo never had a chance, as these guys pressured him from start to finished, forcing three fumbles and recovering two.


  2. Rex Ryan. His defensive schemes have been leaving opponents confused and forcing turnovers, like the Leonhard pick that led to the Jets 3 point victory.

  3. Reggie Bush. He finally looks like the player that won a Heisman Trophy as he gained 84 yards on only 5 carries and returned a punt 83 yards for a TD.
Three Goats of the Wild Card Round:
  1. Nate Kaeding. All he had to do was make two field goals and the Chargers win. Instead he missed three.
  2. The Cowboys O-line. They gave up five sacks, and were simply overmatched by a quick, relentless Vikings D-line
  3. Joe Flacco. After going 4 for 10 last week, he only managed 189 yards and two picks this week, and his team only managed 3 points.

Playoff Picks:
Straight up: 3-1, 6-2 overall
ATS: 3-1, 6-2 overall
o/u: 2-2, 6-2 overall

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