NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

NY Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -7.5
o/u: 39
Jets-Colts may not be the marquee matchup of the weekend, but it certainly is an interesting one. On paper, the Colts look like the better team. Are they? They have Peyton Manning, who is lightyears ahead of Mark Sanchez, and a talented group of young receivers. Beyond that, there isn't much there. Their defense has struggled to stop the run without Bob Sanders every year and they have pretty much no running game. Sound familiar? You could say the same things about the San Diego Chargers, who they Jets just beat to get here. Looking at head-to-head records, the Colts clearly have the advantage, leading the Jets 40-25. However, the Colts have traditionally had a team they couldn't beat when they needed to. Early in the last decade, it was the New England Patriots. Later, it was the Chargers. In their last five meetings, the Jets lead the series, 3-2. You can look at those numbers however you want. Sure, this is a new Jets team with a rookie head coach, rookie QB, and new defensive system. But when Manning was pulled in Week 16, the Colts only led by 5, and the Jets defense had thrown off the Colt's rythm all game. Sure, it may be almost impossible to sack Manning, but he can be hurried into making bad throws. Sometimes that's even better than a sack, and the Jet blitz packages should be able to get enough pressure to force some bad throws. It won't be a pretty game, and I doubt the Colts will cover the spread even if they win, but it should be entertaining for fans of both teams.
Pick: Jets 24 - Colts 20

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints, -3.5
o/u: 53
Under perfect circumstances, on a neutral playing field, the Viking's pass rush would probably give the team a slight edge in this game. The fact that New Orleans is the home team this week takes away that advantage. The Vikes could also be without Offensive ROY Percy Harvin, who has been hit by migraines again. Additionally, their running game has suddenly become terrible. Adrian Peterson may have had almost 1,400 yards and 18 TDs, but he hasn't had a truly dominant performance since Week 10 against Dteroit. Against a Dallas defense that couldn't stop much of anything last week, he only had 63 yards on 26 carries, and average of 2.4 yards per. The Saints, on the other hand, finally look like a near-complete team. Drew Brees has evolved as a QB this season after almost breaking the single-season passing record last year. With 121 less attempts and 681 fewer yards than last season, Brees tied last seasons career high with 34 TDs. He also had career highs in completion percentage(70.6%), yards per attempt(8.5), and QB rating(109.6). But this also speaks of the evolution of the Saints as a team. They have finally put together a group of RBs that can carry the ball successfully and take pressure off the passing game. With Reggie Bush suddenly performing like the Heisman Trophy winner he was at USC, the offense and special teams have suddenly become even more explosive. Sure, Brett Favre had some career numbers this year, too, but he doesn't have the running game backing him up and taking pressure off anymore. Overall, the Vikes have the better defense, but their passing defense is just bad enough that it won't be able to keep any lead the offense might put up.
Pick: Saints 45 - Vikings 31