2010 BCS National Championship Preview

1 Alabama vs 2 Texas
Favorite: Alabama, -4
Finally, after waiting through a month of meaningless game, the BCS title game is here. On one side, we have Texas. Colt McCoy is the winningest QB in college football history. However, for all his wins, this is the first time he's led Texas to a Big XII championship. As usual, Texas had one of the best offenses in the nation this season, and they'll obviously try to open things up early. Alabama had one of the nation's top defenses, Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram on offense, and are coming off beating season-long favorite Florida. And in case you missed it, they held Florida's "high-powered" offense to just 13 points. In fact, Alabama has allowed 20 points just twice this season, to Kentucky and Auburn. Nebraska laid out a gameplan to keep the Texas offense out of the endzone when they allowed only 13 points in the Big XII title game. You can bet 'Bama has been studying and studying that game ever since.
Pick: Alabama 31 - Texas 17

How Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer Cost Florida a BCS Title

On Friday I predicted Tim Tebow would carry Florida to victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by shear strength of will. My gut said that's what would happen, and I made my prediction on my gut. My logic said something very different: Alabama's D was too good, that they'd practice for Tebow all week, and they'd stop him. Apparently, I wasn't the only one who didn't listen to logic.

If you want to know who the biggest and worst believer in Tim Tebow was, look no further than Florida's sideline. No one has had a better view of Tebow's triumphs than head coach Urban Meyer. No one believed in him more. And why shouldn't he? The analysts and experts bought into it, so why shouldn't the man who has been there for all of Tebow's big plays? Because head coaches are supposed to be better than that.

The opening quarter should tell you all you need to know about Tebow's performance against Alabama's D. In Florida's first drive, he was 1/3 for 2 yards. After the second, he was 5/10 for 39 yards, but had only 9 yards on 3 rush attempts. Alabama was keying in on him, and Urban Meyer wasn't doing anything about it.

With Tebow so far held under wraps, you might think a team would try going a little more conventional in their offensive choices. Call some handoffs, give the ball to someone else, then go back to a Tebow-heavy offense once things got moving. In the entire first half, only two plays had Tebow giving the ball to someone else, one in the first quarter, and one in the second.

At halftime, Florida was still in the game. They only trailed 19-13, and there was plenty of time to make adjustments. Get the ball in someone elses hands, and get the running game started. Coming out of the gate, Chris Rainey got the ball on the second play of the half, but lost a yard. It would be the last time a running play would go to anyone other than Tebow.

Coming into this game, Alabama had one of the best defenses in the country. They had already beaten four ranked teams. Those four teams averaged 11.25 points per game against 'Bama's D. In 44 games against other teams, they combined to average 28.7 points per. Alabama was holding ranked teams to 17 points less than they scored against other opponents. This week, they just had to stop one player. Clearly, Urban Meyer would have to do something about that.

When playing against a team that doesn't have any obvious holes in their defense, the best option is to spread the ball around early. Find one thing that works, and keep doing it until the defense can stop you. That should have been Florida's plan. Tebow running up the middle doesn't work? Try a bubble screen. That doesn't work? Option. Stopped again? Throw the ball. Instead, Meyer's game plan seemed to consist of "Throw the ball, then have Tebow run it." When that didn't work, the plan seemed to change to "Have Tebow run the ball a little more." The results are obvious to see: Tebow carried the ball 10 times for 63 yards, threw the ball 25 times for 247 yards, 1 TD, and 1 pick, and no one else had more than two rushes. Only four plays the entire game were put into the hands of someone other than Tim Tebow. And the result was Florida's first loss of the season.

So what does this all mean? Well, obviously it means Florida lost to Alabama, 32-13. After 60 minutes of football, gone were Florida's undefeated season and BCS title hopes. Thats the short-term outcome. The bigger concern is what happens next season. This was Tebow's last season in college. If I were a Florida fan, and I just saw my team lose after giving the ball to a graduating senior on 45 of 49 offensive plays, I'd be worried about what comes next. Meyer has to figure out how to keep this team successful with Tebow next year. A lot of people think Meyer is a great coach, and cite his two National Championships as their proof. But those championship were won on Tebow's back. If Tebow couldn't get the job done, and Meyer kept going back to him, what does that say about his ability as a coach?

In Notre Dame's coaching search, Urban Meyer's name keep coming up. He has said he'll be in Florida until they don't want him any more. Without Tim Tebow as his QB, the time when Florida doesn't want him any more could be sooner, rather than later.

College Football Championship Saturday Preview

1 Florida vs 2 Alabama - SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, GA
Favorite: Florida, -5.5
I want to tell you Florida will lose this game. I want to tell you Alabama's defense can and will stop Florida's offense. But I can't. Tim Tebow has basically carried the offense on his back all season. Once you get past him, there isn't much of an offense. Somehow, he has simply willed this team to win each and every week. Alabama has played well each and every week, and their defense is second to only Florida's. This will be the biggest game for both teams before the winner goes on to the National Championship, and I just think Tebow and the Gator's want it more.
Pick: Florida 27 - Alabama 24

College Football Week 10 - Important Matchups

Vanderbilt @ 1 Florida
Favorite: Florida, -35
This game matters because of Brandon Spikes. By now its been everywhere: he tried to gouge out another Waushaun Ealey's eyes, he was suspended for the first half of this game, Ealey didn't want him suspended, Spikes decided to suspended himself for the full game. Well, the only thing talked about more than this in the past few days has been the Alabama-LSU game, and thats just barely. With Florida at 8-0 and Vandy at 2-7, we'll know how much being without Spikes matters by the end of the first quarter, and it probably won't matter much.
Pick: Florida 45 - Vanderbilt 17

9 LSU @ 3 Alabama
Favorite: Alabama, -7.5
As it stands right now, this game will probably have national title repurcussions. The winner will probably play Florida for the SEC title, and the winner of that game will probably play for the BCS National Championship. For both teams, their big games have been low scoring, including LSU's 13-3 loss to Florida. They've both had their moments on offense, but defense has been carrying both teams all season. With both teams fairly even on that side of the ball, the offensive edge goes to Alabama. 'Bama's offense puts up more points and yards per game, and is already 3-0 against ranked opponents to LSU's 1-1.
Pick: Alabama 20 - LSU 13

16 Ohio State @ 11 Penn State
Favorite: Penn State, -3.5
This is the only other ranked-ranked game of the weekend, and it also hold conference title ramifications. With both teams 4-1 in-conference, they trail only undefeated Iowa for the Big Ten title. With Penn State already having lost to Iowa this season, Ohio State clearly needs this game more, as they take on Iowa next week, and would take the conference by winning out. Ohio State has looked beatable this year, and with Terrelle Pryor possibly nursing a leg injury, this could be a close win for Penn State.
Pick: Penn State 28 - Ohio State 24

9 Oregon @ Stanford
Favorite: Oregon, -7
Poor Stanford. Poor, poor Stanford. They are one game away from bowl eligibility and three of their last four games are at home, where they are undefeated this year. Unfortunately, those three games are against 9 Oregon, 20 Cal, 22 Notre Dame, and the away game is next week is at 12 USC. Having already lost to Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Arizona, I'm not giving the Cardinal much hope of bcoming bowl eligible this week. Maybe in two weeks against Cal, but not this week.
Pick: Oregon 35 - Stanford 17

College Football Week 7 - Important Matchups

22 South Carolina @ 2 Alabama
Favorite: Alabama, -17
This in-conference game features what have become two defensive powers in college football, as SC has the 15th ranked defense, and Alabama has the 2nd. But both teams have also played well on offense, with Alabama putting up 37 points per game. Sc's offense has struggled at times, including in a 7-3 over NC State in Week 1. It will be that dominant defense and scoring offense that carries the day for 'Bama in this one.
Pick: Alabama 38 - South Carolina 24

20 Oklahoma vs 3 Texas (Neutral Site - Dallas)
Pick: Texas, -3
Despite losingthis game last year, Oklahoma went on to play for the BCS National Championship instead of Texas, and you better believe Texas remembers it. Both teams come into this game putting up huge points and allowing very few. Texas has blown through five straight unranked teams, outscoring them 236-75. And with the national polls dropping Texas one spot this week, they want to put up a big win to get back to second. Oklahoma has struggled on the big stage this year, already losing twice to ranked opponents. But QB Sam Braford was injured in the first loss, resulting in him not playing in the second. Still, BYU outplayed Oklahoma even before Bradford went down, and Texas will outplay them this week.
Pick: Texas 35 - Oklahoma 17

6 USC @ 25 Notre Dame
Favorite: USC, -10
The funny thing about big games is that they sometimes allow the lesser team to make a name for themselves. USC has simply dominated the Irish over the past couple years, and they spread would indicate people seem to think they still will. But with Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen in the Heisman running this year and a USC team that looks beatable, 10 points might be far too high a spread. In fact, the future of the Irish football program may hang in the balance of this game, as there has been speculation that if Charlie Weis can't win this game, he may be out as head coach. The key will be the Irish defense. If they can play like they did in Week 1, they'll win. If not, they'll lose, but it will be a close one.
Pick: Notre Dame 38 - USC 35

Pitt @ Rutgers
Favorite: Pitt, -3.5
Each of these teams have quietly put together strong, one-loss records this year. The result has been a wide-open Big East, with four one-loss teams and an unbeaten Cincinnati. Rutgers one loss, however, was in-conference against that Cincinnati team in Week 1. Both teams, then, com into this game needing a big win both for their national rankings and their conference standings. Both teams come in with a strong offense, and Rutgers appears to have the better D. But with Cincinnati still on their schedule to end the season, Pitt needs this game more, and they know it.
Pick: Pitt 31 - Rutgers 27

College Football Week 5 - Important Matchups

3 Alabama @ Kentucky
Favorite: Alabama, -15.5
With the two teams ahead of them in the polls off this week, as well as most of the always powerful Big XII conference, Alabama needs to prove themselves here. Coming off their 41-7 loss to Florida last week, Kentucky looks like a team 'Bama can breeze through. And they'll need to. 'Bama has put up some strong numbers this year, but so has Kentucky in their two wins. 'Bama will have to duplicate what Florida's defense did last week, or suffer an ugly upset.
Pick: Alabama 42 - Kentucky 13

4 LSU @ 18 Georgia
Favorite: Georgia, -3
With LSU undefeated but not putting up the numbers you would normally expect, Georgia comes in as the small favorite. Playing at home probably has something to do with that. But Georgia hasn't exactly been a powerhouse this year, either. Two of their wins have been by 4 points or less, and their third was by only 11. If LSU can put together some offense, they can have an easy win on the road.
Pick: LSU 35 - Georgia 21

7 USC @ 24 Cal
Favorite: USC, -5
Both teams have suffered upset losses the last two weeks, and both teams looked terrible in them. USC had their bounce-back win last week, and Cal needs one now. Though Cal looked worse in their loss than USC did, only managing 3 points, Cal still looks to have the batter offense. This week will be a return to putting up big numbers.
Pick: Cal 42 - USC 24


8 Oklahoma @ 17 Miami(FL)
Favorite: Oklahoma, -7.5
Though injured QB Sam Bradford wanted to be back for this game, he'll sit on the sidelines as Landry Jones continues to play for Oklahoma. While Jones's huge performances have been the story this year, its the Oklahoma defense that deserves a lot of credit. In the last two games, they've blanked their opponents, outscoring them 109-0. Including their loss to BYU, its still 122-14. But those shut-outs were against Idaho State and Tulsa, two teams no one expected to put up much of a fight. Miami, however, come in with something to prove. After suffering their first loss of the season last week, they are now 2-1 against ranked opponents. They need a win both as a bounce-back and to cement their right to a ranking as they go into the easy part of their schedule. To do that, Jacory Harris needs to play like he did against FSU and Georgia Tech, and forget about Va Tech last week.
Pick: Miami 38 - Oklahoma 35