Hot Stove Roundup - Covering the Top Free Agents, and a look at Aroldis Chapman

We're one day into free agency and not much is happening. It looks like most teams are waiting to see what the Yankees do, which is a fairly silly thing to do:

Free Agency:
This week, we'll take a look at the top three free agents this off season:

Matt Holliday:
No stranger to moving around, Holliday could be on his third team in the past two years. After spending his first five seasons with the Colorado Rockies, he was traded to the Oakland A's after the 2008 season, then to the St Louis Cardinals at mid-season. Though his numbers have declined over the last two season, he remains one of baseball's best hitters. Coming up on 30-years-old in January, his production should stay around .320 BA/.400 OBP/25 HR or better for a few more years. Lucky for him, it looks like a lot of teams will need a corner outfielder this year. However, the Angels and Giants have already publicly claimed they aren't interested, and I get the feeling the Yankees will get outfield help from within the organization this year. With the Red Sox looking at him and Jason Bay, he's most likely to end up there or stay with the Cardinals.

John Lackey
Though his record was only 11-8 this past season, Lackey is living off of three things: his 19-win season in 2007, his 190+ strikeouts in 2005 and 2006, and his lights-out performance in the playoffs the last two season. If nothing else, Lackey is certainly a big-game pitcher. He seems like the perfect type of player for the Mets, but they don't look like buyers this year. The Angels would love to keep him, but it looks doubtful they could afford him in the long-run. Of course the Yankees would love him, but the Yankees would love to have every big free agent. The truth is their pitching staff is where it needs to be without him. At this point, it's hard to speculate on where he could end up, but the Mariners, Brewers, and Red Sox have shown definite interest. Unless the Yankees steal him just so they won't have him, the Red Sox look like a strong front-runner.

Jason Bay
At just over a year older than Holliday, Bay's HR number have been slightly higher and more consistent over a longer period of time. He has a lower batting average, and tends to strike out more, though. The good news is that playing a full season in Boston after playing almost his whole career in Pittsburgh shows he can play in a big market, in pressure situations. He reportedly already turned down an offer to stay in Boston, but I'm sure he'll still listen. It's doubtful the Sox would go much higher than the 4 years/$60 million they already offered. Though not interested in Holliday, the Angels are still interested in Bay. Offensively, he would be a great replacement for Vlad Guerrero. Really, Bay is a good target for any team that thinks Holliday is too expensive. If the Red Sox don't get Holliday, I think he re-signs. If they do, I'd go with the Angels.

Trades:
So far the only trade of note is Aaron Heilman going to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The trade is basically a something-for-nothing deal, as the Chicago Cubs, his former team, have a glut of relievers, and they would have had to offer Heilman arbitration to keep him. In return, they get two prospects, neither of which appear to be Major League ready, but could turn into something over time. Lefty reliever Scott Maine looks like the better of the two, putting up a 2.90 ERA in 48 appearances in AA and AAA, while 1B Ryne White hasn't played out of A-ball.

Rumors:
The Roy Halladay Lets Make A Deal show has two rumors this week: the Blue Jays have apparently said they would be willing to trade him to a division opponent, and they've reportedly had discussions with the Cubs about the pitcher. Making a trade would be difficult to a team that doesn't have money to spend next year, as this is Halladay's last year under contract. I could see the Yankees packaging some young arms for him, but his free agency would be prohibitive at this point. The Red Sox would be more likely, as they need help at starter. But with trying to find outfielder, and a need to start focusing on the future, I doubt they would be very interested. The Cubs would be far more likely, as they have a solid rotation but lack an ace. An ace starting pitcher could be what gets them back to the playoffs. Another obvious prohibitive factor would be what the Jays want in return. Right now, Halladay won't be coming cheap. It would be foolish, however, to think the Jays would shut down trade talks and just let him go. They're rebuilding, and can use whatever help they can get right now. Eventually, their demands should go down, and some decent young talent could get them to pull the trigger.

The Texas Rangers are expected to mostly shun free agency this year, and focus on trades. With the exception of Kevin Millwood, the Rangers are a fairly young team. Looking at their 40-man roster, a good portion of their team is in their mi-20s, especially their pitchers. They finished 10 games behind the Angels for first in the AL West, and could turn some of those young arms into older talent to get them back in the playoffs. They've already been linked to the Cubs and Mets in a now-dead three-way deal involving Millwood, Milton Bradley, and Luis Castillo. If they're willing to give up enough, I could see Roy Halladay landing here eventually.

The Atlanta Braves are openly shopping P Derek Lowe. At $15 million per year for the next three years, buyers have been few and far between so far. Additionally, he turns 37 during next season, and though his record improved to 15-10 this season, the rest of his numbers dropped sharply. Most notably, after having 147 Ks in 2006 and 2007, he had only 111 this year, among his lowest since he became a regualr starter in 2002. If the Braves can find a buyer, they won't get much in return.

Free Agent of the Week:
Aroldis Chapman
This year, he could be the best free agent you've never heard of, but he's generating plenty of interest around the majors. Not much is known about Chapman, who defected from Cuba earlier this year. Rumors of his abilities filtered out from the Cuban leagues and the National Team, and the world got to see him in the 2008 World Baseball Classic. What he showed was a mid-90s fastball that touched 100, and wicked breaking pitches to go along with it. There are concerns about his curveball, and not much is known about his past, but put some GMs in front of a guy who can touch 100 mph, and they'll salivate like Pavlov's dogs. The fact that he is believed to be only about to turn 22 makes him all the more desireable, as many teams hope his youth and raw talent can be molded to what they expect him to be. Of course the Yankees are rumored to be interested, but hes already visited Boston, and seemed to like it there. At this point, where he lands is about as big a guess as how he'll do in the big leagues: no one knows, so we'll just have to wait to find out.