Whats Wrong with These Guys?:
Dallas Cowboys
After five weeks, the 'Boys looked lost out there. They had a 3-2 record, but couldn't beat anyone above .500. And KC had just taken them to overtime. Then they had a bye week, officially made Miles Austin a starter, and the team blew up for three weeks, ending with a 20-16 win over Philly for first place in the division. With Green Bay coming off a loss to then-winless Tampa Bay, they looked set to go 5-0. And then their offense didn't show up. The defense played ok, racking up four more sack on Aaron Rodgers and holding the team to a field goal in the first half. But they had no turnovers while the offense lost 2 fumbles and an INT. Clearly this team is different from the one that lost 33-31 to the Giants in Week 2. They're defense is much improved, but their offense is only showing quick flashes. And now that teams have figured out Austin, they can't look to him anymore. Roy Williams and Tony Romo need to step up. Williams claims he's the teams #1 receiver, and now he needs to prove it. He had 105 yards and a TD this week, and it only took him until Week 10 to have a 100 yard game. Its also only his third TD of the season. Its also beginning to become clearer that Romo is not a frnachise QB. Is he a solid QB? Yes. But he's not going to lead anyone to a Super Bowl any time soon. The team looks like a playoff contender, but only because the rest of they're division is falling apart, too.
Philadelphia Eagles
I wish I could say that the Eagles are an easy fix, but they aren't. Their problems run deeper than Andy Reeds playcalling. Their problems are injuries. Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are great players, but when you can't play a full season every year, you're hurting the team. McNabb came in in 1999, and has only started a full 16 games four times. Westbrook came in in 2002, and has never done it. They are both great players. The Eagles need to learn that, sometimes, you just need to move on. Westbrook suffered another concussion this week and could be out for the season. In my opinion, the Eagles chances of winning their division went with him.
NY Giants
The Giants had the best Sunday of any team in their division, and they had off. With the two teams above them losing, they automatically move up in the standings. Plus, all their players are back in practice, with only Ahmad Bradshaw a real concern while he plays with a broken foot. But the Giants are clearly a team without an identity. Brandon Jacobs should be a bruising, straight-ahead runner. Instead, he's trying to be Maurice Jones-Drew, running into the pile, bouncing off, making a cut, and taking it 50 yards for a TD. That isn't who he is. Meanwhile, Eli Manning is trying to run a passing attack full of inexperienced receivers. They've been good, but there isn't a Plaxico Burress among them. They need that guy that can make the big 3rd down catch, or make the play in traffic in the end zone. If they can rediscover how to run the offense, they could make a playoff run. They're defense is good enough. Its on the offense to pick up the slack.
Washington Redskins
Second best Sunday in the division: they beat Denver 27-17. Sadly, they still have a shot at their division. They've also been the most consistent team of the four. They score about the same number of points each week, and their defense is better than you think. They are 1st in pass yards allowed, 5th in total yards allowed, and 9th in points allowed. Clearly, they have two problems: run defense and coaching. They can still contend, but Albert Haynesworth needs to be the run stopper he was in Tennessee. Coaching is the bigger problem, though. Jim Zorn was clearly ineffective as the play-caller. Now that Sherm Lewis has a couple of games under his belt, that can improve, and 27 points against the Broncos shows it has. Now they need to figure out their running game. With Clinton Portis probably out with a concussion, Ladell Betts is a perfectly competent replacement. In fact, with less than half the carries of Portis, Betts is averaging just 0.1 yard per carry less. In 2006, in my opinion, he proved he could carry the load, with 1,154 yards on 245 carries. The fact that the 'Skins are expected to use a rotation is rediculous, and shows how far the coaching staff still needs to go. In a now wide open division, they need to turn it around immediately, and win all four of the in-division games left on their schedule. They can do it, but it won't be easy.
A Moment to Talk About Bill Belichik:
At lot has been made of Bill Belichik's 4th down call against the Colts on Sunday night. A lot of people, myself included in yesterdays post, said it was or might have been the worst call in NFL history. After taking yesterday to look at the stats, I think the numbers have changed my mind. The analysis of the win potential at Advanced NFL Stats was the first to make me rethink the play. My first reaction to reading that was disbelief. The numbers just seemed wrong. They aren't. Tom Brady's situational stats back up the math. In his career, Brady is 15/18 on 4th down and less than 3 yards and averages 3.9 yards per attempt. An 83.3 completion percentage? Looking back at the play, I'd take those odds, too. Its time to face facts: Bill Belichik was right.
Injuries:
Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: out at least this week and could miss the rest of the season with multiple concussions
Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: expected to miss at least this week with a bruised lung
Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: will miss at least this week with an ankle injury
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: expected to miss at least this week with a high ankle sprain
Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos: could miss at least this week with an ankle injury
Troy Polamalu, S, Steelers: could miss at least this week with a sprained PCL
Fantasy Studs:
- Chris Johnson. Another huge game for Johnson, and his 232 total yards and 2 TDs give tennessee another win.
- Randy Moss. His 179 yards and 2 TDs almost gave New England the win.
- Ravens Defense. Sure, I could have put Tom Brady here, but Ravens D deserves special mention, having 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1 TD, and pitching a shutout on Monday Night Football.
Fantasy Duds:
- Nate Burleson. He got shut out, and he doesn't even play for Cleveland.
- Falcons D. They had 41 tackles. Yay! But tackles don't count for fantasy points.
- Seahawks D. 57 tackles. Thats more than the Falcons had!
Week 10 Picks:
Straight up: 8-6, 90-53 overall
ATS: 9-5, 80-62-1 overall
o/u: 12-2, 68-73-2 overall
Questions for Week 11:
How will teams deal with injuries?
The second half has begun, and the injuries I listed aren't even the tip of the iceberg. A lot of important players went down this week, with injuries of varying degrees. The ones that will hurt the worst are probably Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, and Brian Westbrook. Their teams need the running game to be succesful. The Dolphins are in the best position of the three, with Ricky Williams taking over. But we really won't start to know the outcome until after Week 11.
Where do the Broncos go from here?
When Kyle Orton went down at halftime, it became clear Chris Simms is not his father. Add to that the running game being exposed by the Ravens and Steelers, and the prospects of topping the Chargers for their division went way down. The two teams play each other this week, and Josh McDaniels will need to figure things out quickly if he wants to right the ship.
How long will "gimmick" offenses keep working?
The Dolphins have run the Wildcat to playoffs, and now a 4-5 season. Now the Titans are using Vince Young to run the option all over opponents. Will anyone figure out how to stop them? Or will gimmick run schemes keep popping up?
No comments:
Post a Comment