NFL Week 11 Preview

Atlanta Falcons @ NY Giants
Spread: Giants, -6.5
o/u: 46
The Falcons are in trouble. Matt Ryan is still good, but not as good as he looked last year. Michael Turner is out. Last week they lost to the Panthers. The Giants are coming off the bye, and have only Antonio Pierce out with a bulging disk. They may have lost four straight, but that has to end, eventually. This is the week, it does.
Pick: Giants 24 - Falcons 17

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions, -3.5
o/u: 38
Do I really have to preview this game? Really? Even if no one outside of Cleveland will be watching it? All right, fine, lets get it over with quickly. The Browns are falling apart by the minute, the Lions are a future good team, future wins.
Pick: Lions 17 - Browns 6

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Colts, -1
o/u: 44.5
The Colts are undefeated and the Ravens are 5-4 for a reason: Peyton Manning, and the aging Ravens defense. Ray Lewis is still the best defensive player in football, but he can't carry the team by himself anymore. Sure, hes got Ed Reed, but who else? For Manning, even a group of inexperienced receivers hasn't slowed him down this season. The Ravens have the 5th best run defense and the 13th best pass defense. Without a running game, Manning will exploit that weakness all day.
Pick: Colts 28 - Ravens 21

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys, -11
o/u: 41.5
The Redskins were the only NFC East team to win last weekend, and if you read my Weekend Wrap-up, you know why. The cracks are starting to show on the 'Boys, and the Redskins are playing up to their potential. This weekend will have the East turned on its head, and it all starts right here.
Pick: Redskins 24 - Cowboys 14

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers, -6.5
o/u: 42
These two teams look like they could be so much better than their records. The 49ers offense has struggled, and only managed 10 points while beating the Bears last week. The Packers have talented receivers and a strong QB to get them the ball, but probably the worst offensive line in football. I have to give the edge to the '9ers defense in this one.
Pick: 49ers 17 - Packers 10

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars, -9
o/u: 42.5
This is the first game for the Bills under their new head coach, and TO couldn't be happier. That doesn't mean they'll win. The Jags have started to come together, and have Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball like we all new he could. Add to that the fact that Jacksonville is 3-1 at home, and the Bills look like a speedbump instead of a real opponent.
Pick: Jaguars 31 - Bills 10

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Steelers, -10
o/u: 40
I would love to think that KC would have more wins than the Raiders at this point, but they don't. After this week, they still won't. Pittsburgh is clearly the better team, on both sides of the ball, and KC won't be able to match up.
Pick: Steelers 24 - Chiefs 10

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings, -10.2
o/u: 46.5
Seattle wants to think they've got a good team, and somewhere under whats been put on the field this year, they do. But something just isn't right in the Emerald City. Matt Hasselbeck hasn't been able to consistently hit his receivers, their running game is terrible, and the defense hasn't been any better. Maybe Brett Favre keeps this one close, just so he can have more fun out there, maybe not. I'm leaning towards not.
Pick: Vikings 35 - Seahawks 20

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Saints, -11.5
o/u: 51
The Buccs played well last week against the Dolphins, and Josh Freeman looks like a step in the right direction. The Saints are still undefeated, but have struggled as of late. On the one hand, Reggie Bush might not play in this one. On the other, Darren Sharper is probable after missing last week. Freeman may be a better choice than anyone else on the Bucs at QB, and he might keep this one close, but he won't pull out the win.
Pick: Saints 31 - Buccaneers 24

NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots, -1.5
o/u: 45
The Jets may have beaten the Pats in Week 2, but these were two completely different teams them. Tom Brady has finally knocked the rust of missing last season off, and it looks like it landed on Mark Sanchez. That doesn't mean the Jets can't win. They are currently the best in the league at running the league at running the ball, and if the defense can step up like they did in the first three games, the Jets might pull this one out. But New England just looks too good. Despite the person he gives off, Bill Belichik can be vindictive. After the way the Jets talked in their first meeting, and the way he's been talked about after the loss to the Colts on Sunday night, the Pats might just run up the score on this one.
Pick: Patriots 42 - Jets 21

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams
Spread: Cardinals, -9
o/u: 47
The Rams may be one of the worst teams in football, but they gave the Saints a run last week. The Cardinals may not have the best running game in the world, but if Beanie Wells can keep playing at a high level, he'll have a big game. The Rams D gives up 142.3 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Cardinals 28 - Rams 17

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Spread: Chargers, -6.5
o/u: 43
With Kyle Ortons status uncertain, it looks like Chris Simms will get the start this week. If he were healthy and playing, I'd probably give this one to Denver. Even if he does play, the Chargers defense has improved since these teams last met in Week 6. The Chargers look like the good pick this week, and they'll take control of the AFC West.
Pick: Chargers 20 - Broncos 13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Spread: Bengals, -9.5
o/u: 36
The Jets are 1-5 since Week 3. That one win came against the Raiders. Yes, they didn't have Darren McFadden in that one, the Bengals probably won't have Cedric Benson in this one, and Bruce Gradkowski is starting this week. It won't matter.
Pick: Bengals 28 - Raiders 13

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Eagles, -3
o/u: 45
Donovan McNabb has the 3rd worst completion percentage in the red zone, and Jay Cutler leads the league in picks. Of his 17 picks, 11 have come in night games. I know Philly's secondary is pretty banged up, but Cutler is perfectly capable of throwing picks all on his own.
Pick: Eagles 24 - Bears 17