2010 NFL Draft Preview/Mock Draft

Things to know before the Draft:

So here we are, another Draft about to begin, when every team looks to the future of the franchise and hopes they don't blow it big time. Every year there are busts, steals, major trades, and disappointed fans. This year shouldn't be any different.

Before we even talk about who's going where, you have to remember the most critical part of the NFL Draft: Trades. Sure, the Rams have the #1 pick, and everyone expects them to select Sam Bradford. But what happens if they trade it to, say, Seattle, who uses it to pick Ndamukong Suh? It throws of every pick after it, and renders most mock drafts completely moot. And on Draft Day, anything can happen. At this point, the Steelers could trade Ben Roethlisberger to the Browns for their first round pick and a case of Mr Pib.

Obviously, these things happen because team executives know more than us. We can watch a game and talk about a player's abilities all we want. NFL execs have to go deeper than that. They have to determine if a player is the right fit for their team, both in the lockerroom and on the field. Tim Tebow is a perfect example of this.

There's is no doubting that Tebow has great skill on the football field, and no one is doubting his moral character. He's been called the greatest college football player in history. So why isn't he the #1 pick? Well, where would you put him? He isn't a traditional QB, his power running style seems more fit for a fullback, and he's a year or two removed from having the mechanics needed to complete throws in the NFL. Looking at his college stats, these are things you might not know right away.

So how do we know who each team might pick? We don't. All we can really do before the Draft begins is look at what we think a team needs, what's available, and make our best guess.

So without further ado, I present the 2010 NFL Mock Draft:

#1: St Louis Rams
Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Early on, everyone was saying Ndamukong Suh was the #1 pick. Problem is, the Rams don't need a defensive lineman nearly as much as they need a QB. Last season, the Rams had Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, and Keith Null under center. Nothing says "We need a franchise QB" more than that. Some people think Jimmy Clausen is the better QB, but I strongly disagree. Clausen's stats at Notre Dame, in my opinion, had more to do with throwing to strong, playmaking receivers than his own ability. Bradford is the right choice here, as long as his shoulder holds up in the NFL.

2010 MLB Preview - Old, Familiar Territory

PROJECTED AL WILD CARD STANDINGS:
(Top five contenders only)

1. Boston Red Sox

2. Chicago White Sox
3. Texas Rangers
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Tampa Bay Rays


Last season, a good arguement could have been made that the Yankees were the best team in baseball, followed by the Phillies, with the Red Sox in third. With their offseason moves, Boston may have moved in to second. This could be the last time thats true for a while, unless they do something about their declining players and get younger in center. The White Sox, Rangers, and Angels may all put up a fight, but the Red Sox are the clear frony-runner here. The Rays make it in at #5 thanks to feasting on Toronto and Baltimore in their division, while getting beat down by Boston and the Yankees.

2010 MLB Preview - The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

PROJECTED AL EAST STANDINGS:

1. New York Yankees

2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles


After a start to last season that had them looking like they may be out of the playoffs, the Yankees ended up the only 100 game winner, and won their 27th World Series. They cut out their older position players, traded away the sometimes underacheiving Melky Cabrera, and brought in Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson to fill their spaces. They still have a hole in left, but when you only have one hole on your roster, you're in pretty good shape. The Red Sox made a lot of changes to a team that was good enough for the Wild Card last season. Most of them are solid moves, like signing Marco Scutaro and John Lackey, but I have to question the wisdom of putting a 37-year-old Mike Cameron, with a history of injuries, into the cavernous center field at Fenway. It could be a concern in a late season push. The Rays had their run at a title, and they lost to the Phillies. They may contend this year, but they don't have the overall depth and ability to win in the AL East. The Central or West, maybe, but not the East. The only shakeup in the divison could be at the bottom. Loses of Scutaro and Roy Halladay will really hurt the Jays, and the Orioles have some up and coming players from the minors that could pay off. I'm thinking it won't until next year, but anything can happen.

2010 MLB Preview - No Single Game Playoff This Season!

PROJECTED AL CENTRAL STANDINGS:

1. Minnesota Twins

2. Chicago White Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals


The Twins barely pulled out this division last season, winning a play-in game against the Tigers. This year, they should win it outright, but not by much. Last season's roster is mostly intact, and the players they brought in are more for leadership and role playing, rather than trying to bring in a big name player to push them over the top. It will win them the division, but probably won't get them anywhere in the playoffs. The White Sox are the Central's most improved team. Unfortunately, most of their improvement could easily sink the team. JJ Putz, Andrew Jones, and Omar Vizquel are all risky signings. They keep the Sox in contention, but won't win them any titles. The Tigers continue to try to pretend that the local economy isn't hurting the team. They give up Curtis Granderson, then sign over-the-hill Johnny Damon to replace him. They bring in young, cheap, untested players. This year is probably going to begin a down cycle for the team, so don't expect them in the playoffs the next few years. And at the bottom, the Indians and Royals continue to do what they do best lately: not a whole lot.

2010 MLB Preview - This is Seattle's Year. Really.

PROJECTED AL WEST STANDINGS:

1. Seattle Mariners

2. Texas Rangers
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Oakland A's


Last season, a lot of people picked the Mariners to win the AL West. A quick glance at their roster would have told anyone with a brain that, while the team had some excellent hitters, they had no pitching. This offseason, they added Cliff Lee as their new ace, and brought in even more speed by signing Chone Figgins from the Angels. The loss of Figgins, as well as losing P John Lackey to the Red Sox, significantly weakens the team, dropping them to third. The Rangers made some decent offseason moves, but none of them add up to a division title. The A's took some risks in their free agent signings, bringing in the likes of Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, and Jack Cust, all hit-or-miss, and I don't see them paying off overall.

2010 MLB Preview - Wild, Wild West

PROJECTED STANDINGS:
(Top five contenders only)

1. San Francisco Giants

2. Atlanta Braves
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Florida Marlins
5. Cincinnati Reds


The NL Central may be the toughest division, but that isn't good for Wild Card possibilities. With all the teams there winning at home, it dilutes the records of the rest of the division. They may all be good teams, but that hurts their chances when put against an equally good team in a weaker division. The Giants and Braves have the best chances of taking the fourth playoff spot, due to their opponents. While the Braves have to face a Marlins team on the rise and the NL's best team, the Phillies, the Giants will be able to take advantage of the falling Dodgers, the lowly Padres, and the not-quite-there-yet Diamondbacks.

2010 MLB Preview - The NL East Still Belongs to the Phillies

PROJECTED STANDINGS:

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals


The Phillies didn't really do anything to improve this offseason, but they didn't need to. The deal that got them Roy Halladay and sent Cliff Lee to Seattle is pretty much an even trade, and with how weak the East has become, its enough to keep them in first. The Braves and Marlins both made some nice additions in the offseason, but neither did enough to put up much of a fight. The Marlins may be overvalueing their home-grown talent. If they can stay in second place instead of dropping to third, they're probably doing the right things. The Mets probably won't be competetive this year, even if they stay healthy. Without a first baseman, it's kinda hard to beat the back-to-back NL Champions. The Nats picked up Steven Stroudsburgh, and while he may be the future of MLB pitching, he'll start the season in the minors. Even if he was in the majors, he can't pitch every game.

2010 MLB Preview - Central Probably the NL's Toughest

PROJECTED STANDINGS:

1. St Louis Cardinals

2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Houston Astros
5. Milwaukee Brewers
6. Pittsburgh Pirates


In my opinion, everyone but he Pirates has a shot at winning the NL Central. The reason is partly due to the fact the every team in the division was one game below .500 or better at home last season. That should help make this a close race. The Cards won it last season, and now they have Mark McGwire as hitting coach, Matt Holliday for a full season, and Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter remaining in the rotation. The Cubs didn't hurt their chances coming in, but they didn't help them either. Cutting ties with Milton Bradley was a good move, but bringing in Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady won't exactly put them over the top. The Reds stayed mostly the same. Their big acqusition, Cuban P Aroldis Chapman, has already shown signs of being a problem, leaving a Spring Training game with back stiffness. His control hasn't exactly been perfect, either. Meanwhile, the Astros and Brewers did what small-market teams usually do: sign cheap players nobody else wants and hopes for the best. Both teams have talent, and could be competitive for most of the season, but will fall to nonfactors down the stretch.

2010 MLB Preview - The NL West Gets Weaker

PROJECTED STANDINGS:

1. Colorado Rockies

2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres


The Rockies ended last season right on the heals of the Dodgers, and almost pulled out the Division title. In the offseason, they lost Yorvit Torrealba, but added Miguel Olivo to take his place. They largely kept the rest of the team intact. Below them, the Giants added some strong talent to go along with Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and could contend this year. After that, it looks like a car wreck in progress. The Dodgers and Padres are both hamstrung by the divorces of their owners, and neither added much talent in the offseason. The Diamondbacks added youth to a team on the way up. They probably won't do much this season, but could be a spoiler down the stretch and will most likely keep improving every year.

NCAA Tournament 2010 - Final 4

FINAL 4:
Underlined teams are those I picked to win.

1. Kansas
2. Kansas State

1. Kentucky
1. Duke

What You Need to Know:

Kansas State has seven losses this season. Three of those came at the hands of Kansas. Make it four after this one. Duke was good enough to win the Bracket of Duke, but Kentucky is clearly the better team.

FINALS:

1. Kansas
1. Kentucky

What You Need to Know:

Both teams have two loses, with one coming against Tennessee. Both teams had tough second half schedules, and managed to come out largely unscathed. Kansas looks like it might be the better overall team, but my gut says they won't be able to overcome John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. I'm going with my gut.

NCAA Tournament 2010 - West

FIRST ROUND:
Underlined teams are those I picked to win.

1. Syracuse
16. Vermont

8. Gonzaga
9. Florida State

5. Butler
12. UTEP

4. Vanderbilt
13. Murray State

6. Xavier
11. Minnesota

3. Pittsburgh
14. Oakland

7. BYU
10. Florida

2. Kansas State
15. North Texas

What You Need to Know:

The only surprise here is that Syracuse is #1. They lost their last two games, and could have easily been dropped to #2 behind West Virginia. But they're a #1, and all the favorite roll in the opener.

SECOND ROUND:

1. Syracuse
8. Gonzaga

5. Butler
4. Vanderbilt

6. Xavier
3. Pittsburgh

7. BYU
2. Kansas State

What You Need to Know:

Aside from #1 and #2, any of these games could go either way. Butler/Vandy and Xavier/Pitt should both be good games, and I figure the underdogs should win both games.

SWEET 16:

1. Syracuse
5. Butler

6. Xavier
2. Kansas State

What You Need to Know:

Once again, the higher seeds win, setting up a #1 vs #2 regional final.

ELITE 8:

1. Syracuse
2. Kansas State

What You Need to Know:

Syracuse has looked like a solid team all season, but they shouldn't be a #1 seed. Kansas State has the luck of being the one to take them out, being the only #2 to make my Final 4.

NCAA Tournament 2010 - South

FIRST ROUND:
Underlined teams are those I picked to win.

1. Duke
16. Arkansas - Pine Bluff

8. Cal
9. Louisville

5. Texas A&M
12. Utah State

4. Purdue
13. Siena

6. Notre Dame
11. Old Dominion

3. Baylor
14. Sam Houston State

7. Richmond
10. St Mary's

2. Villanova
15. Robert Morris

What You Need to Know:

If the Midwest is the Bracket of Death, the South is clearly the Bracket of Duke. Below #1, the teams are so weak that Duke should cruise to the Final 4. Purdue is without Robbie Hummel, and will probably fall to a Siena team high off their conference championship. And every year we have at least one 5/12 upsets, and this years will be Utah State over Texas A&M.

SECOND ROUND:

1. Duke
9. Louisville

12. Utah State
13. Siena

6. Notre Dame
3. Baylor

7. Richmond
2. Villanova

What You Need to Know:

This mess of a region continues, as the top two stay, while Notre Dame finally makes it past the Second Round, and Siena keeps that championship high going.

SWEET 16:

1. Duke
13. Siena

6. Notre Dame
2. Villanova

What You Need to Know:

Duke make the Elite 8, no surprise there. On the other side, Notre Dame pulls off the huge upset, knocking off Villanova. The Irish have a gameplan that forces opponents to slow down, throwing off their rythm. It'll get them this far, but will it get them to the Final 4?

ELITE 8:

1. Duke
6. Notre Dame

What You Need to Know:

No. Duke has been doing this for far too long to be upset by ND. Really, Duke could lose at any point in this region, and if you bracket goes bust, I'd just blame the South and pray for a better 2011.

NCAA Tournament 2010 - East

FIRST ROUND:
Underlined teams are those I picked to win.

1. Kentucky
16. East Tennessee State

8. Texas
9. Wake Forest

5. Temple
12. Cornell

4. Wisconsin
13. Wofford

6. Marquette
11. Washington

3. New Mexico
14. Montana

7. Clemson
10. Missouri

2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State

What You Need to Know:

While everyone is talking about Cornell, Missouri and Washington could be the surprises of the first round. Why everyone thinks Cornell could win I don't understand, because everyone also agrees Temple is better than a #5 seed. Everything else goes according to plan.

SECOND ROUND:

1. Kentucky
8. Texas

5. Temple
4. Wisconsin

6. Washington
3. New Mexico

10. Missouri
2. West Virginia

What You Need to Know:

Kentucky, Temple, New Mexico, and West Virginia should clearly be the top four teams in the East. Though even if you flip Temple and Wisconsin at 4/5, the outcome would probably be the same.

SWEET 16:

1. Kentucky
5. Temple

3. New Mexico
2. West Virginia

What You Need to Know:

Temple may be better than a #5, but not better than a #1. Kentucky will probably make this look easy. On the other side, I just don't think West Virginia can live up to the hype. Not to mention all their complaining about being a #2 instead of a #1 could be fodder for a New Mexico rally.

ELITE 8:

1. Kentucky
3. New Mexico

What You Need to Know:

Kansas may be #1 overall, but in my opinion Kentucky is the best team in the nation.

NCAA Tournament 2010 - Midwest

FIRST ROUND:
Underlined teams are those I picked to win.

1. Kansas
16. Lehigh

8. UNLV
9. Northern Iowa

5. Michigan State
12. New Mexico State

4. Maryland
13. Houston

6. Tennessee
11. San Diego State

3. Georgetown
14. Ohio

7. Oklahoma State
10. Georgia Tech

2. Ohio State
15. UC - Santa Barbara

What You Need to Know:

Known as the Bracket of Death, the Midwest is pretty straight forward in the First Round. The 8/9 matchup can always go either way, and otherwise the favorites should come out on top.

SECOND ROUND:

1. Kansas
9. Northern Iowa

5. Michigan State
4. Maryland

6. Tennessee
3. Georgetown

7. Oklahoma State
2. Ohio State

What You Need to Know:

Kansas is the #1 overall team in the tournament for a reason, and they shouldn't have too much trouble with Northern Iowa. Georgetown should roll over Tennessee, too. Michigan St/Maryland could go either way, but thinking this isn't Maryland's year. At the bottom of the bracket, Ohio State may have a better record than Oklahoma State in an arguably better conference, but OK State is 13-3 out of conference, and could pull out an upset here.

SWEET 16:

1. Kansas
5. Michigan State

3. Georgetown
7. Oklahoma State

What You Need to Know:

Kansas and Oklahoma State make the Elite 8. Kansas goes for the obvious reason. OK State gets in not because they are the better team, but because Georgetown's grueling Big East schedule will catch up with them sooner, rather than later.

ELITE 8:

1. Kansas
7. Oklahoma State

What You Need to Know:

Oklahoma State could have a good run this year, but Kansas is just the better team all around.

Have We Learned Anything New in the Last Four Days?

With defensive backs working out yesterday, the 2010 NFL Scouting Combine came to a close. Did it really teach us anything?

Sure, it taught us that Jacoby Ford and Trindon Holliday are this year's fasted players, that TE Jimmy Graham is great at running the gauntlet drill, that OL Mitch Petrus can bench press a lot, and that none of the top QBs are currently capable of actually throwing a football. So now that we know these things and many more, how does that effect next years rookie class? No one really knows.

That fact of the matter is this: the NFL Scouting Combine is mostly useless. The basic idea behind it is sound. You bring in the best college football athletes in this years draft, have them work out for coaches, and they can better evaluate a players abilities. That's where logic ends. Sure, its great to know how strong an offensive lineman is or how fast a receiver is. What isn't always necessary? Knowing how fast a lineman is, or how high a QB can jump.

The NFL Combine is an excellent way to judge the raw talents of players coming out of college, but it is very, very flawed. For starters, there are seven events that every position does: 40-yard dash, bench press, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle, and 60-yard shuttle. It's great knowing a receiver has 4.4 speed and a 39" vertical, but do we really need to know those same stats for a lineman?

Each position also has its own specific drills. Quarterbacks throw to receivers, receviers run routes, linemen block, etc, etc. None of these drills are contact. You can sit back and watch a guy in a T-shirt and shorts throw a ball all day, but can he do it with Jared Allen coming from his blind side? A running back might show great speed and recognition abilities, but can he do the same thing, and hold onto the ball, when he's facing down Ray Lewis, with Ed Reed right behind him? A defensive lineman may have great rip and swim technique, but how well will he be able to use it against the Jets offensive line?

A problem that I have with the Combine, and most people don't bring it up, is that the Combine is invitation-only. The athletes performing there are generally the best of the NCAA, players we already know are usually going to be top draft picks. Small schools and schools below D-I aren't usually represented, and if they are, its usually by a single player. It's a problem that doesn't really have a solution. Hundreds of athletes performed this year over a four day period, and hundreds more will be available in this years draft. If you were to include everyone who wanted to work out for NFL scouts and coaches, how long would it take? Weeks? A month or more? It simply isn't logistically possible to have everyone who wants to be there work out.

The Combine isn't all bad. While it doesn't simulate how a player would react in game situations, it does give an idea of the raw speed/strength a coach would have to work with. Combine interviews are also often the first chance an NFL coach has to interact with players he may be considering drafting. Its a great way to find out if a player will fit on your team, and they never even have to take the field to do it.

The general problem with the Combine, and workouts of any kind, is that you can fall in love with a player's abilities, and then they don't perform in real-game situations. In the past few years, the Raiders have selected JaMarcus Russell because he could throw the ball a mile, and Darrius Heyward-Bey based on his 40 time. Neither player has proven they can be a starter in the NFL yet. Neither player was even considered the best at their position in their draft, but the Raiders picked them based on workouts, and now their suffering for it.

The Combine isn't perfect, and it probably never will be. Scouts love the watching players workout, even if what they're doing barely translates into on-field ability. The top QBs don't usually throw. This year, Jimmy Claussen, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy, all top prospects, either didn't participate at all, or didn't throw. Some who don't participate are injured, some are working on technique, and some just don't want to. Instead, they wait for their school's Pro Day, when NFL scouts can see them in a more comfortable situation, and in a setting more like an NFL practice.

The reality of a situation in which the current NFL is all about gathering as much information as possible is that we've gotten away from the simplicity of watching players play the game. Scouts don't need to see Tim Tebow workout to know his throwing mechanics are bad. They saw it in college. Similarly, Shonn Greene fumbled more times in his first year with the Jets than he did in college, where he was known for not dropping the ball. Thats something a workout can't tell you. If a receiver can leap over a defender to make a high-pressure catch in a college game, he can probably do it in the NFL, too.

Really, isn't it as simple as that? A player playing the game. If a college player has abilities that can translate to the pros, he'll use them. If he doesn't, he'll be gone in a couple of years anyway. A team can only pick a player based on their best information. The best information comes from what a person does on the field, not how many bench press reps he can do, and not how high he can jump from a standing position. The Combine does give us some good information, but it should never be the be-all and end-all in how we judge an athlete turning pro.

Ryan Miller is a Great Goaltender. Let's All Hope He Remembers That.

The US Men's Ice Hockey team came into this Olympics with low expectations on them. They made the Gold Medal game, only to lose in overtime. No one probably feels lower right now than goalie Ryan Miller.

For five games, Miller stood on his head in goal. In those five games, he allowed only five goals for a GAA of 1 and a save percentage of 95.4. He beat Switzerland twice, allowing only 1 total goal. The US may have scored 5 goals against Canada the first time they played, but Miller had to face 45 shots to get the win. Canada could have easily won 8-5 against a lesser goalie.

The Gold Medal rematch was what every North American hockey fan hoped for. Canada pulled out to a 2-0 lead, and the US battled back. With 24 second remaining, Zach Parise, who tied Brian Rafalski for the team lead in goals, assists, and points, scored the tieing goal to send the game to overtime. Seven minutes and 40 second later, the game would be over. Sidney Crosby would take a centering feed and, with Miller out of position, scored the winning goal.

It's hard to place blame in a situation like this, and ultimately it's unnecessary. Was the goal scored because of poor defense? Could the US have been better? Is the fault all on Miller? It really doesn't matter. As the goaltender, and the player who gave up the winning goal, Ryan Miller is probably putting it all on himself.

You could see it in his posture when the goal went in: Miller, slumped to the ice on his hands and knees, staying almost motionless while Canada celebrated. You could see it in his eyes on the team bench. You could read his face like a book when both teams came out to shake hands. You could see the saddness in his face on the podium, like his world was crashing down around him.

There are positions in most team sports where the pressure on you is greater than that of a teammates. A high stress situation, followed by the feeling of letting your team down, can crush the careers of some of these people. Pitchers, quarterbacks, and goalies are the most obvious. We all remember the spectacular crash of Ryan Leaf when faced with the pressure of playing in the NFL. After throwing two scoreless innings in Game 1 of the 2000 NL Divisional Series against the NY Mets, St Louis Cardinal Rick Ankiel melted down, walking 4, throwing 5 wild pitches, and giving up 4 runs on only 2 hits. He never recovered as a pitcher.

What Miller did in these games was spectacular. Overall, he went 5-1, with one shutout, a total GAA of 1.33, and a save percentage of 94.6. No other starter in these games matched those numbers, not even Canada's Roberto Luongo. The only person in the world who might be putting the blame for the loss on Ryan Miller might be Ryan Miller.

Miller has been to the playoffs with the Buffalo Sabres twice, in 2006 and 2007. Both times they were eliminated in the second round. Each year since then, his GAA has improved, and is currently at 2.16. He's been in high pressure situations before, lost, and come through better on the other side, but he's never done it on a global scale like this.

The fact that Miller made the team already showed he was the best in the nation. His being named MVP makes him best in the world. Sidney Crosby scoring a goal can't take that away from him, and he needs to remember that. He needs, now more than ever, to be able to shrug off what I'm sure is a feeling of letting his entire country down. He didn't, and he shouldn't feel that way. He took a team that was expected to perform so poorly that the NHLPA booked their flights home for the morning of the Gold Medal game to near-perfection. Thats what he needs to remember now, the 5-0 start, the 139 saves, the shutout of Switzerland, and the silver medal and MVP status he's bringing home. Not the OT goal to a player considered arguably the best in the world.

He'll need to turn it around quick, too. The Sabres play Crosby and the Penguins tomorrow night.

Tiger Woods Finally Makes a Public Statement

After over two months of speculation and wondering where he was, Tiger finally came out of hiding. What we got was more of the same old Tiger.

Goodbye, ECW. May You Finally Rest in Peace.

For 16 years, Extreme Championship Wrestling was a brand that had one of the most loyal followings in the history of professional wrestling. Last night, WWE put the brand to rest, probably for good.

Dealing with Withdrawal - The First Weekend without Football

So here we are, a week removed from the Super Bowl. We're a few weeks away from free agency, and months away from the draft. The Pro Bowl was moved, so we don't have that to calm our nerves in the transition to the offseason. Thankfully, the sports world has made sure to pack this first football-free weekend with other diversions.

Super Bowl XLIV Wrap-up

So depending on which analyst you listen to, either the underdog or the better team won. I picked the New Orleans Saints all along. And now a quarter-by-quarter look at the game:

First Quarter:
From the start, this looked like a win for the Indianapolis Colts. Each team had two possessions in the first quarter, and were opposites in what they did with the ball. The Colts drove almost at will, scoring both times. Their second possession was a 96 yard drive for a TD. Meanwhile, the Saints couldn't get moving. Their first possession, off the opening kickoff, ended in a 3-and-out punt. Their second got them a first down, but failed when Marques Colston dropped a wide open pass on 3rd-and-7. Things weren't looking good after the first.
Score after 1: Colts 10 - Saints 0

Super Bowl XLIV Preview

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -5
o/u: 56.5
Over the past two weeks, I've compared the positions of these two teams head-to-head, and the Saints came out on top, 5-4. In key positions, the Saints match up better against the Colts than vice versa. Still, analysts have been praising the Colts the last two weeks like they won every game by huge magins and dominated every game. If you believe Tony Dungy and most of the other experts, the Colts have already won. That simply isn't true. Of the Colts 14 wins, four came by a field goal or less, and seven came by 7 points or less. The Colts scored more than 20 points 10 times in their wins, while allowing more than 20 four times. The Saints, on the other hand, won by a field goal or less only twice, and 7 points or less only three times. They may have given up more than 20 points eight times in winning games, but they scored more than 20 points in all of their 13 wins. Dungy went as far as to say he would be shocked if the Colts won by less than two TDs. Personally, I think that is a completely rediculous statement, considering the Colts only won by 14 points or more five times, including the postseason, Before the Divisional Round they hadn't done it since Week 7 against the Rams. Does that mean it won't happen? No, the Super Bowl has had a long tradition of defying expectations. I'll be expecting a Saints victory.
Pick: Saints 31 - Colts 20

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Coaches

Indianapolis Colts:
Jim Caldwell may be considered a rookie head coach, but that doesn't really mean anything in this situation. He's been with the Colts since 2002, and the majority of his assistants have been with the team for at least two seasons. Some have been there for over a decade. Caldwell spent his first three seasons as QB coach, working with Peyton Manning. After that, he was named assistant head coach in 2005. There are probably only a handful of people in the organization that are better prepared to handle an offense centered on Manning better than Caldwell. Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer is one of the new additions to the teams since Caldwell took over, and he has instilled a bend-don't-break style to the defense. The team may be around the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, but they're 8th in points allowed, averaging less than 20 per game. The fact that almost every coach on the staff was with the team when they won their last Super Bowl will be a big boost this week.

New Orleans Saints:
Sean Payton is in his third year as head coach of the Saints, and he is already among the best head coaches in franchise history. His experience as the quarterbacks coach with the Dallas Cowboys, who had a revolving door at QB for most of his time there, made him almost a perfect choice for a team that had a running game on the decline when he took over, but a passing game ready to break loose. Under Payton, Drew Brees has had his three highest seasons for TDs, and three of his four highest in passing yards. He also came just a few yards shy of breaking Dan Marino's single season yardage record when he finished the season with 5,069. The Saints also finished first in total offense this season, putting up 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Unfortunately, the rest of the staff doesn't have the tenure of the Colts coaches. All joined the team in 2005 or later. The one thing they have going for them is that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams comes from a season with the Jacksonville Jaguars where he had to face Manning and the Colts twice, winning one.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts:
First of all, congratulations to Matt Stover for being the oldest player ever to play in the Super Bowl. With Adam Vinatieri being held out after injuring his leg during the season, Stover came in and did an excellent job as his replacement. He was perfect on extra points and made 9 of 11 field goals in the regular season, which isn't great, but is good enough considering the Colts don't kick many field goals. In the playoffs, he is a perfect 5 for 5 so far. Punting has been fairly strong, as well. Rookie Pat McAfee is averaging a third of his punts burying opponents inside their own 20, in both the playoffs and regular season. One thing they won't have going for them this week is playing in a dome. With Sun Life Stadium being open air, they'll have to adjust for wind instead of the stillness indoors. One of Stover's two missed field goals this year came outdoors against Houston, His one other outdoor attempt, of course, was good. The return game needs to improve though. Punt returner TJ Rushing was forced to fair catch half of the punts he fielded, and averaged less than 6 yards per return. If the Saints can get moving but have to kick, not being able to get off a good return could hurt. Kick returner Chad Simpson hasn't always been great, but he does have one return for a TD this season.

New Orleans Saints:
Like Stover, Garrett Hartley replaced another player, John Carney, who was cut for missing too many kicks. Hartley has done well, but he has two misses of his own, and his only attempt longer than 40 yards was one of them. Punter Thomas Morstead attempted less punts than McAfee, and has a lower percentage of punts inside the 20, but he averages only about half a yard per punt less, and both have a long of 60 yards. Like the Colts, the Saints kickers will also have to face playing away from a dome. In two games played outdoors, though, Hartley is 5 for 6, with his only miss coming on five attempts against the Redskins in his first game. He also missed one extra point, but is perfect in the playoffs. On punt returns, Reggie Bush had a fairly poor season, averaging less than 5 yards per return while fair catching only a quarter of punts fielded. He has come on strong in the playoffs, though, with a return for a touchdown. Take away that 83 yarder, and he's averaging 8.7 yards per. Not great, but almost double his regular season output. On kick returns, Courtney Roby had a strong 27.5 yards per during the season, which has gone down to 25,7 in the postseason. Like Simpson, he also has a return for a score. Across from him, Pierre Thomas is almost as dangerous, with one return for 40 yards in the playoffs.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Backs

Indianapolis Colts:
Quick, name two members of the Colts secondary. If you said Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea, you're wrong. Sanders is injured, as usual, leaving Melvin Bullitt to take his place. At the corners, there's Kelvin Hayden and rookie Jerraud Powers. Between them, they have 5 picks, four belonging to Bethea. The fact that they had the 14th ranked pass defense is due more to the defense they apply than the abilities of their secondary. The Cover 2 is designed to force short passes and not give up a big play. A decent group of corners and safeties can run it effectively, and that's what they've gone. The group isn't great, but it can run a Cover 2 effectively.

Colts Defensive Backs vs Saints Receivers:
The Saints can and will spread the ball around, so the Colts need to do the same with their secondary. Running a zone-heavy gameplan, with corners dropping back rather than staying in the flats, can stop quick passes. Bethea over the top to one side of the field can take away much of that side. The one concern then becomes the side covered by Bullitt. I'd imagine that side will be victimized early, until the Colts can adjust.

New Orleans Saints:
The typical "sit back and wait" gameplan of the Saints defense may be tested this week. Usually, they force the other team to pass by building up a lead, then take advantage of mistakes. The Colts pass a lot anyway, and Peyton Manning doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Good for the Saints then that Darren Sharper doesn't always need mistakes to happen to make a play. He tied a career high with nine picks this year, and set a new career high by returning three for TDs. He'll mostly be used to help out Tracy Porter, who is young and inexperienced, but still managed 4 picks of his own. Across from him is Jabari Greer, who totaled another 2 picks and 13 passes defensed. The only hole in coverage may be SS Roman Harper, but he's used more for his abilities as a run stopper.

Saints Defensive Backs vs Colts Receivers:
The Saints will need to find a way to stop Peyton Manning, pure and simple. If they can cover his receivers, he has nowhere to go. That's no easy task. Even if they can cover Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon, they still have to worry about Dallas Clark. Zone defense will be the key for the Saints, too. There aren't many safeties in the NFL as good as Sharper at disappearing in their zone. If they can find a way to confuse Manning by disguising coverages, even just a little, they can shut down the passing game enough to win.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Linebackers

Indianapolis Colts:
No one will ever tell you the Colts have a dominant group of linebackers. Do they have a nose for the ball? Sure. Clint Sessions recorded 103 tackles, and Gary Brackett had 99 of his own. But between those two and Philip Wheeler, they total only 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. A Cover 2 defense relies on LBs to drop into coverage and protect the middle of the field against the passing game. They also need to be able to recognize the run at the same time. The Colt's LBs just aren't good enough at doing both.


Colts Linebackers vs Saints Running Backs:
The Saints like to get to the outside, which is good if they can get to Wheeler's side. He is the least experienced of the LBs, and Brackett and Sessions don't have the block shedding ability to keep the Saint's runners out of the secondary. In the passing game, where the Saints like to hit Reggie Bush out of the backfield, the Colts have the ability to apply solid coverage. If the Saints shy away from the short passes and go to the run, it could be a long day for the Colts.

New Orleans Saints:
If the Colts don't have a dominant group of linebackers, then the Saints have a slightly dominant one. Johnathan Vilma may be the only one who topped 70 tackles, with 110, but that is what you want in a middle linebacker. He also finshed the season with 2 sacks, 3 picks, and 8 passes defensed, which is about as good as the Colts as a whole. On the outsides, Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita combined for a sack, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles of their own. The fact that the Saints played against more passing plays than running plays due to their big early leads probably skews the tackle numbers a bit, as well.

Saints Linebackers vs Colts Running Backs:
Is this even a competition? The Colts have a terrible running game. While Donald Brown may be able to gain a few extra yards if he can keep running straight ahead, Joseph Addai doesn't have the escapability and speed to get to the outside that he used to. Don't look for the Colt's runners to break any long ones, look for them to be tied up quickly by the Saint's linebackers.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Defensive Lines

Indianapolis Colts:
Normally this would be open and shut. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best defensive ends in football. Since he entered the league, no one has more sacks and tackles for loss than Freeney. Both players have incredible speed off the ball, and are two of the best in the league at anticipating snap counts. Unfortunately, the Colts announced last night that Freeney has a torn ligament in what was previously thought to be a minor ankle sprain. He's currently listed as questionable, and he may not even play. Even if he does, his speed and mobility will be severly diminished. The upside is that his backup, Raheem Brock, may not have Freeney's speed, but he he does come pretty close to his playmaking ability. On the interior, tackles Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson may not be the run stuffers you'd like to see in the middle, but at 310 lbs each, they are perfectly competent at their position. Unfortunately, competent may not be good enough against Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.

Colts Defensive Line vs Saints Offensive Line:
With neither team having a true noise advantage from playing at home, the Colts have the advantage on the outside, while the Saints have it in the interior. Jonathan Stinchcomb, the second-oldest member of the line behind center Jonathan Goodwin, will be tasked with stopping Mathis's speed all day. On the other side, Jermon Bushrod will have to be working on his footwork all week to stop the speed/size combo of Freeney and Brock. On the inside, the Saints guards and center are more than equal the size of the Colts tackles. It won't be easy for them, especially if the Colts start sending blitzes up the middle, but it shouldn't be a problem they can't overcome.

New Orleans Saints:
The Saints have almost the same problem as the Colts, except they already know DE Charles Grant won't be playing. Grant isn't as big a hit as Freeney is, so while Bobby McCray may be smaller, he should be able to at least do a decent job as a replacement. The big player on the line is on the other side, as Will Smith put up a career high in sacks this year with 13, along with three forced fumbles and his first career interception. On the interior, the Saints don't match up with the Colts at all. Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele may eaqual the size of Muir and Johnson, but they have half the talent. The fact that the Saints rush defense finished the season better than the Colts is due more to the abilities of their linebackers than their linemen.
Saints Defensive Line vs Colts Offensive Line:
Smith may be the only lineman who could have trouble this week. He'll be going against tackle Ryan Diem, the largest member of the Colts line. The rest of the line is undersized, a weakness that shows up in the fact that their running game is ranked last in the NFL. When your team passes as much as the Colts do, run blocking doesn't matter too much. When your QB can read a defense as well as Peyton Manning does, pass blocking doesn't matter much, either. So when you have a mostly mediocre defensive line going against a mostly mediocre offensive line with the best QB in the league, line-play takes a bit of a backseat to everything else.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

Does Kurt Warner Belong in the Football Hall of Fame?

Just about four hours ago, Kurt Warner announced he is retiring from the NFL. Most people wouldn't argue he had a successful career, but was it Hall of Fame worthy?

Warner will end his career with many accolades. In 1999 and 2001, he was NFL MVP and a First Team All-Pro. He was a five time Pro-Bowler. He led two different teams to the Super Bowl, winning Super Bowl XXXIV, and was named MVP of that game. He has the top three passing games in NFL postseason history. He is the only player to throw for 14,000 yards with two different teams, and one of two to throw 100 TD passes for two different teams. For all his great acoomplishments, though, Warner was largely overlooked in his career.

Before the 2008 season, in which he led the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl, Warner was considered a journeyman. He spent the early part of his career in the Arena Football League and NFL Europe before being named third-string QB for the St Louis Rams in 1998. The following season, he became the starter after Trent Green was injured, threw a career high 41 TD passes, and led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory. In 2000, he split time with Green after being injured himself. The 2001 season saw him return to the full time starting job and lead the team back to the Super Bowl, where they lost to the New England Patriots. This would be followed by five seasons of mediocraty.

An injury early in the 2002 season saw Warner sitting out most of the season in favor of Marc Bulger. That was followed by a terrible start in 2003, and Warner was benched for good, and was ultimately released. He would then become a placeholder for Eli Manning with the NY Giants for half a season, before being benched after a 5-4 start. Warner would again move on, this time to the Cardinals. Being named the teams starter for 2005 wouldn't last long, as an early season injury led to Josh McCown taking over. After McCown was ineffective, Warner would again be the starter, until going down to yet another injury in Week 15. With the drafting of Matt Lienart in 2006, it looked like Warner would be finished. Instead, after Lienart struggled in his first two season, Warner would be the on-again, off-again starter.

This is where the story of Warner's career takes an unexpected turn. As the teams full-time starter in 2008, Warner passed for over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, the first time he would do either since 2001. He led the Cards to Super Bowl XLIII, where they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Warner would finish 2009 with another playoff run, losing to the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round.

So how does all that mean Kurt Warner shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame?

The Argument Against:
For all of Warner's great games and great seasons, he had more seasons where he simply wasn't good. In his 12 seasons, he only started 15 or more games four times. In his other eight seasons he would start 11 or less, due to either injury or pure ineffectiveness. He topped 3,000 yards only six times, and 4,000 only three. He may have a 208 TDs and 128 INTs in his career, but that's thanks mostly to only five seasons where he threw 10 more TDs than picks. In the other seven, his best differential was 2002, when he had 21 and 18 in 11 games. The year after losing Super Bowl XXXVI, he would finish with 3 TDs and 11 picks in six starts.

Warner had some great games. When his teams made the playoffs, he could step up his game with the best of them. He led two teams to three Super Bowls, a great accomplishment on its own. But can we really say a players career is Hall of Worthy when less than half of it was even decent?

The Argument For:
Warner had a lot of bad seasons. He had a lot of seasons he didn't even finish. To say a guy should be in the Hall, though, he should be compared with other players that were voted in before him. To prove he belongs in the Hall, I only need to bring up one name:

Joe Namath

A lot has been said about Namath and how great of a football player he was. Looking at his accomplishments, they don't measure up to Warner's. It isn't even close. Sure, Namath won Super Bowl III, arguably the most important Super Bowl in NFL history, but he would never win another playoff game after that. Yes, he was the first player to pass for 4,000 yards in a season, and the only to do it with a 14 game schedule. But he only did it once, the year before the Jets made the Super Bowl, and he would never come close again. The year after the Super Bowl, Namath had his only season where he threw more TDs than picks. For his career, Namath has 173 TDs, 220 picks, and a career 50.1 completion percentage in 13 seasons. Take away his Super Bowl win, and Namath probably doesn't even come close to being a Hall of Famer. Comperably, Warner has more passing yards, more TDs, less picks, a higher completion percentage, more playoff wins, more Super Bowl appearances, and a higher passer rating. The only stat Namath has on him is more rushing TDs.

In Conclusion:
A strong arguement could be made either way for Kurt Warner. There are probably people who deserve to be in the Hall that aren't yet, and there are clearly people who shouldn't be in the Hall that are. On a personal level, the fact that Warner stocked shelves and played in the Arena League while hoping to one day get his shoty in the NFL is a great story. The fact that he got his shot and took it to three Super Bowls makes it even better. And no one can take away that, or his two MVPs, or his five or so great seasons. Whether or not he makes it into the Hall, he will be remembered as one of the games greats, even if it was for only a few seasons.

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Offensive Lines

Indianapolis Colts:
The good news: Peyton Manning wa sonly sacked 10 times during the regular season. The bad news: the holes needed to get the running game going aren't there, and Manning has been sacked 4 times in the postseason. Center Jeff Saturday and tackle Ryan Diem are getting up there in years, but I'd put the reason for the lack of a run block more on the youth of the rest of the line. Still, it is impressive that a QB who isn't very mobile was only sacked 10 times. I have to think that has more to do with Manning's ability to read a defense than strictly good blocking, but that shouldn't take away from the fact this is a strong line that still has a lot to learn. They aren't great, but they fit perfectly into the Colts gameplan.

Colts Offensive Line vs Saints Defensive Line:
The Saints have a solid line, but it isn't the strength of their defense. If they get any sacks at all, it probably won't be from their linemen. The Colts linemen also benefit from the fact that they can practice against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis all season. They should be able to have solid protection against the Saints front, and if they need to run in short situations, they've shown they are capable of hitting their blocks..

New Orleans Saints:
Like the Colts, this is a line with some youth on it. The line overall seems to be better than the Colts, though. They know where to be to give Drew Brees a passing window, and even though the Saints tend to run to the outside more, they can open interior holes pretty well, too. Brees may have been sacked 20 times this year, but that's about average for his career.

Saints Offensive Line vs Colts Defensive Line:
The Saints line will face a huge test in trying to stop Mathis and Freeney. You have to wonder if Jonathan Stinchcomb, at 30-years-old, has the footspeed to get a block on the Colts speed-based defense. He may not really have to, though. The Saints are very good at running screens and draws. A few at the right time could be enough to slow down the Colts line. The other advantage they have is Freeney will be playing with a sprained ankle suffered last week against the Jets. It won't hold him out, but it should slow him down and possibly limit his playing time.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Receivers/Tight Ends

Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts are built differently than other teams. Where most teams have a #1, #2, #3, etc receiver, the Colts seem to have a #1, followed by a group of #2's. Even with Anthony Gonzalez going down early in the season, the Colts passing machine never missed a step. Rookie Austin Collie and two-year vet Pierre Garcon not only picked up their own game to compensate, but they now lead the team in receptions and receiving yards in the postseason. Reggie Wayne is still target #1, though, as he should be. The receiving numbers are skewed due to Wayne being shut down by Darrelle Revis in the AFC Championship game. At tight end, the Colts have the best of both worlds. The prototypical blocking end of years passed is being replaced by tall, play-making ends who don't block well. Somehow, they found themselves with a hybrid of both. At 6' 3", Clark is one of the teams tallest receivers, and at 252 lbs, he is just 40 less than the Colts smallest lineman. Somehow, with all that size, he finds ways to make big plays downfield. This year, he had his first 100-reception and first 1,000-yard season. He also tied Wayne with a team-leading 10 TDs this season.

Colts Receivers vs Saints Defensive Backs:
The beauty of having a group of #2 receivers is that defenses can't match up. The Jets had an answer for Reggie Wayne and contained Dallas Clark, but they couldn't stop Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Where most teams match up LBs and safeties with a teams lower receivers, the Colts have too much talent for that kind of gameplan. As long as they can stay on the same page as Peyton Manning, any receiver on this team can blow up for a big game at any time.

New Orleans Saints:
Saints receivers aren't flashy, they just make big plays. Four members of the Saints receiving corps have receptions over 50 yards. Those same four also have over 500 yards receiving, each. What the Saints don't have is a dominant receiver that Drew Brees can keep going to. After Marques Colston's team-leading 70 receptions, six players have between 35 and 51 catches each. For a team that relies on passing to score and running to drain the clock with a lead, spreading the ball is good. However, with Colston shut down by Darrelle Revis in Week 4, Brees was forced to throw a lot of dump-off passes, couldn't top 200 yards, and the team only scored 10 offensive points. I would be concerned if the loss of one offensive weapon had that much effect on my team.

Saints Receivers vs Colts Defensive Backs:
Thankfully for the Saints, the Colts don't have a Darrelle Revis-calibre corner. Their receivers may not be the tallest in the league, but they have speed on their side. They use that speed to their advantage, but lack the ability to make plays to get open if you take that away from them. One receiver may have a big game against the fast Colts secondary, but as a group, they'll be limited.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Running Backs

Indianapolis Colts:
Do the Colts even use running backs anymore? Or have they given over completely to the "new NFL" of passing at all times? No, they have running backs. You wouldn't know it from their running game, ranked last in the NFL. Where a 1,000 yard rusher used to be typical on a Super Bowl team, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown barely passed 1,100 yards combined. Neither player topped 3.9 yards per carry. While Addai topped 1,000 yards his first two seasons, he seams to have lost his escapability since missing four games last season. Brown is in his rookie season, and while he's shown some elusiveness when he gets the ball, he isn't polished enough take many carries away from Addai. If there is a weakness on the Colts offense, this is it.

Colts Runners vs Saints Linebackers:
Yards are there for the taking in the running game. Lacking spead to outrun defenders will hurt the Colts, as the Saints LBs are known more for their tackling and backfield pursuit than being able to run down a ball carrier. If they can get through the defensive line up the middle, they may be able to catch a defender out of position. Otherwise, it looks like a tough day to be a Colts RB. 

New Orleans Saints:
The Saints are known for their passing game, but they can run the ball almost as well. Their offense was first in the league this year, and that is thanks to their 6th ranked rush offense as much as their 4th ranked passing game. Like the Colts, they didn't have a 1,000 yard rusher, either. Instead, they seem to have found the perfect balance in the backfield. Pierre Thomas has clearly emerged as the #1 back, with Mike Bell providing short yardage and the ability to break a long run if he gets free. Reggie Bush is coming on more and more with each game. He may contribute more on special teams so far, but he has also shown himself to be an excellent change-of-pace back. Between the three of them, they totaled 16 TDs, split evenly between them.

Saints Runners vs Colts Linebackers:
What the Saints have in the backfield is speed. They'll need it against a fast Colts defense. Sticking with Thomas as the feature back and mixing Bush in every fifth play or so could be enough to wear down a small and, in some places, aging Colts linebacker corps.

Edge: New Orleans Saints

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIV - Quarterbacks

Indianapolis Colts:
How do you go against Peyton Manning in any situation? With a group of mostly young, inexperienced receivers this season, he had his highest career completion percentage, his second highest yardage total, and tied his second highest TD total. With barely a running game, he has almost single handedly carried the team this season. In this year's playoffs, he has already beaten a tough Baltimore Raven defense and put up almost 400 yards, 3 TDs, and a 123.6 passer rating against the NY Jets #1 ranked passing defense. Manning has the pure talent and off-field dedication to adjust to any defense, find its weakness, and exploit it. Against the Jets, he threw out the idea of passing to Reggie Wayne, who was blanketed by Darrelle Revis, and hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon for over 100 yards each. Sure, his playoff record is only 9-8, but he does have a Super Bowl ring on his resume. With a Super Bowl on the line, I can't think of many QBs in NFL history I'd rather have on my team.

New Orleans Saints:
Drew Brees was once considered a deviation from the norm at QB. He's too short, he's too small, he can't make plays because he can't see over the linemen. If you want proof, look no further than 2005. After passing for a then-career high 3,576 yards, the San Diego Chargers let Brees go to free agency in favor of Philip Rivers. Brees responded in 2006 by passing for 4,418 yards and 26 TDs with the Saints, earning a spot on the NFC Pro Bowl team. This year saw a drop off in yardage as he had his lowest yardage total as a Saint, due mostly to being rested in Week 17. However, he tied last season's career high for TDs, had one of his lowest years for picks, and also had a career high 109.6 passer rating. Manning may be the best at leading his team on the field, but I doubt there is a QB that works harder to be the best than Brees. Still, with all his great play for the Chargers and Saints, this is his first Super Bowl, and the first for New Orleans. He'll be going against a team that still has key players on it from their last Super Bowl, both on offense and defense. Brees isn't the type to fall to pressure, though. Even in the Saint's loss to Dallas, their first loss this season, he threw for almost 300 yards, completed 64.4% of his passes, threw only 1 pick, and had an 81.5 passer rating. The following week, in their loss to Tampa Bay, Brees completed 32 of 37 passes and had a 104.7 passer rating. No matter which team loses, it probably won't be the result of their QB's play.

Edge: Indianapolis Colts

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Wrap-up

It was a tough weekend for rookies and old people, and now the Super Bowl is set:

Indianapolis Colts 30 - NY Jets 17
To look at this game and try to analyze it would be impossible if taken as a whole. The fact of the matter is, this was really two diffferent games. One the Jets won, 17-6, and the other the Colts won, 24-0. For the first 27:49, the Jets controlled every part of the game. They kept Peyton Manning out of the end zone. They made big plays. They controlled the ball. Then, with 2:11 left in the first half, the Colts put together their first TD drive of the game. The Jets still led, 17-14, but things seemed to change on that drive. They seemed to suddenly be less agressive, both on offense and defense. Their blitz packages, which sacked Manning on back-to-back offensive plays, suddenly weren't getting through. The deep passes that led to both TDs were replaced with short throws. The loss of Shonn Greene at the start of the second half greatly hurt the running game. Manning used the lack of depth in the Jets secondary to hit Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on pass after pass. The Jets offense played well, but not good enough to win. Their defense played dominant football to start the game, but gave up too many plays and too much yardage in the second half. The Colts, as an entire team, made the correct adjustments throughout the game, and won a game they clearly deserved to win.

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview

NY Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts, -7.5
o/u: 39
Jets-Colts may not be the marquee matchup of the weekend, but it certainly is an interesting one. On paper, the Colts look like the better team. Are they? They have Peyton Manning, who is lightyears ahead of Mark Sanchez, and a talented group of young receivers. Beyond that, there isn't much there. Their defense has struggled to stop the run without Bob Sanders every year and they have pretty much no running game. Sound familiar? You could say the same things about the San Diego Chargers, who they Jets just beat to get here. Looking at head-to-head records, the Colts clearly have the advantage, leading the Jets 40-25. However, the Colts have traditionally had a team they couldn't beat when they needed to. Early in the last decade, it was the New England Patriots. Later, it was the Chargers. In their last five meetings, the Jets lead the series, 3-2. You can look at those numbers however you want. Sure, this is a new Jets team with a rookie head coach, rookie QB, and new defensive system. But when Manning was pulled in Week 16, the Colts only led by 5, and the Jets defense had thrown off the Colt's rythm all game. Sure, it may be almost impossible to sack Manning, but he can be hurried into making bad throws. Sometimes that's even better than a sack, and the Jet blitz packages should be able to get enough pressure to force some bad throws. It won't be a pretty game, and I doubt the Colts will cover the spread even if they win, but it should be entertaining for fans of both teams.
Pick: Jets 24 - Colts 20

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints, -3.5
o/u: 53
Under perfect circumstances, on a neutral playing field, the Viking's pass rush would probably give the team a slight edge in this game. The fact that New Orleans is the home team this week takes away that advantage. The Vikes could also be without Offensive ROY Percy Harvin, who has been hit by migraines again. Additionally, their running game has suddenly become terrible. Adrian Peterson may have had almost 1,400 yards and 18 TDs, but he hasn't had a truly dominant performance since Week 10 against Dteroit. Against a Dallas defense that couldn't stop much of anything last week, he only had 63 yards on 26 carries, and average of 2.4 yards per. The Saints, on the other hand, finally look like a near-complete team. Drew Brees has evolved as a QB this season after almost breaking the single-season passing record last year. With 121 less attempts and 681 fewer yards than last season, Brees tied last seasons career high with 34 TDs. He also had career highs in completion percentage(70.6%), yards per attempt(8.5), and QB rating(109.6). But this also speaks of the evolution of the Saints as a team. They have finally put together a group of RBs that can carry the ball successfully and take pressure off the passing game. With Reggie Bush suddenly performing like the Heisman Trophy winner he was at USC, the offense and special teams have suddenly become even more explosive. Sure, Brett Favre had some career numbers this year, too, but he doesn't have the running game backing him up and taking pressure off anymore. Overall, the Vikes have the better defense, but their passing defense is just bad enough that it won't be able to keep any lead the offense might put up.
Pick: Saints 45 - Vikings 31

NFL Divisional Weekend Wrap-up

Blowouts galore in the Divisional Round. Well, except for the Jets:

New Orleans Saints 45 - Arizona Cardinals 14
Surprisingly, the first game of the weekend set the tone for most of the games: blowouts. What was expected to be a high scoring game between two high powered offenses turned into a one sided Saints victory pretty quickly. The Cards scored first, on a 70-yard run by Tim Hightower, but that was followed by three unanswered scores, and the Saints led 21-7 after one quarter. The Cards scored first again in the second, and it would be their final score of the game. The Saints went on to lead 35-10 at the half, but the game was pretty much over when Drew Brees hit Devery Henderson on a flea flicker for a 44-yard TD just three minutes after Arizona's last score. The story underneath the Saints offensive explosion is how the Cards couldn't get any offense going. Kurt Warner barely passed 200 yards, though he was limited after taking a huge hit in the second quarter, and was ultimately pulled later in the second half. Take away the 70-yard run, and Hightower and Beenie Wells only had 24 yards on 10 carries. Two major questions are left after this game. The first is on the future of Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Speculation says that he is planning on retiring, but that's up in the air after how the Cards went out. Those concussions have to be weighing heavily on his shoulders as he makes a decision. The loss of Warner would leave only Matt Leinart, so far considered a draft bust, as the leading candidate to take over the offense. The second question is simply how do you stop the Saints? Brees threw for three scores this week, and often made the Cards D look silly. Reggie Bush is suddenly playing like the runner he was expected to be out of college. Add to that his ability on returns, where he had another TD this week, and he adds a completely new dimension to the team. The Saints are clearly an offensive triple-threat now, able to score from anywhere on the field by passing, running, and on special teams. They'll be hard to stop from here on out, but it's always too early to crown a Super Bowl Champion before the game is played.

NFL Divisional Weekend Preview

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints, -7
o/u: 57
The Cards had a huge shootout victory last week over the Packers, and they'll need to do it again against the Saints. The Saints D isn't great, but they have one of the NFL's best offenses. They can put up points against anyone, pretty much any way they want. Last week saw an almost complete breakdown of the Cardinals defense. If it happens again, there's no way the offense will be able to keep the score close. If they can play like they did at the start of the game, and keep it up for 60 minutes, the score will be close, but the Saints should still pull it out.
Pick: Saints 41 - Cardinals 31

NFL Wild Card Weekend Wrap-up

One week down, four more to go. Lets see how everybody did:

NY Jets 24 - Cincinnati Bengals 14
The Bengals may have been the favorite, but most people seemed to be picking the Jets to win. And win they did. The Bengals scored first, but the Jet D actually dominated right from the start. With the exception of that touchdown drive, the Bengals didn't have a first down until three minutes into the second quarter, and that was on a penalty. By that point, the Jets had tied the game, and would take the lead for good on their next possession. Both teams had solid rushing attacks in this one, as they both had 171 yards on the ground. Their passing games seemed to have switched places for this week, though. The Jets normally shaky air attack went for 182 yards as Mark Sanchez completed 12 of 15 for 2 TDs. The Bengals normally stable passing game only managed 146 yards as Carson Palmer completed only 18 of 36. The key to the game was turnovers. The Bengals lost the ball on a pick and a fumble, while the Jets protected their possessions and never lost it. What we saw was a finally complete Jets team. For the first time all season, every facet of their game was working properly at the same time. If they can continue to play this way, a Super Bowl berth isn't a far stretch.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

NY Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals, -2.5
o/u: 33.5
There is no possible way you should expect a repeat of last week's 37-0 Jets win. The Bengals will be playing the starters who rested because of injuries last week, and that alone changes the complection of this game. That being said, gametime conditions are expected to be very similar to last week. Expect a lot of running, with some passes thrown in, probably in the red zone. And the Jets are the better running team, and the better defensive team.
Pick: Jets 24 - Bengals 17

2010 BCS National Championship Preview

1 Alabama vs 2 Texas
Favorite: Alabama, -4
Finally, after waiting through a month of meaningless game, the BCS title game is here. On one side, we have Texas. Colt McCoy is the winningest QB in college football history. However, for all his wins, this is the first time he's led Texas to a Big XII championship. As usual, Texas had one of the best offenses in the nation this season, and they'll obviously try to open things up early. Alabama had one of the nation's top defenses, Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram on offense, and are coming off beating season-long favorite Florida. And in case you missed it, they held Florida's "high-powered" offense to just 13 points. In fact, Alabama has allowed 20 points just twice this season, to Kentucky and Auburn. Nebraska laid out a gameplan to keep the Texas offense out of the endzone when they allowed only 13 points in the Big XII title game. You can bet 'Bama has been studying and studying that game ever since.
Pick: Alabama 31 - Texas 17

2010 Orange Bowl Preview

9 Georgia Tech vs 10 Iowa
Favorite: Georgia Tech, -5
I don't like Georgia Tech. I think they've been overrated all season. They can run the ball well, and beyond that they aren't very good. Their defense gives up 24.8 points per game, a stat hidden by the fact that weak ACC defenses couldn't stop their running game. Iowa's Big Ten opponents weren't much better, but they did beat Penn State, and one of their two loses came against an Ohio State team that played very strong at the end of the season. Iowa also probably has a better defense than any team Tech has faced this season.
Pick: Iowa 27 - Georgia Tech 17

NFL 2009 Season Wrap-up

Boy, this was a crazy season, wasn't it?:

I Guess We Saw This Coming:
Indianapolis Colts
Did anyone really think things would be different this season? Sure, Jim Caldwell is in his first year as their head coach, but it isn't like they just grabbed some guy off the street. He spent the six previous seasons on the Colts coaching staff. Of course, there are those who say Peyton Manning is the real coach of the team. The may be true of how the offense plays on the field, since he makes so many adjustments and play changes at the line, but it's Caldwell and his staff that had to get this team prepared every week. He had a team that has been great every regular season, that hes been with for six seasons already, and that he simply had to prepare for every game. Going 14-0 may have been a surprise only in that they played so many close games. Really, the Colts have been the best team in their division for years, and the winningest team of the decade. As long as they keep things together, they should be expected to be the NFL's best team almost every year.

2010 Fiesta Bowl Preview

4 TCU vs 6 Boise State
Favorite: TCU, -7.5
So here we are, in the college football postseason, and instead of being in a playoff, the #1 scoring offense in the nation takes on the #1 defense in an essentially meaningless game. Lets behonest here, no one will confuse TCU with an offensive powerhouse, and they don't need to be one. Boise State scored the more points per game than anybody else, and TCU is right behind them. All the talk has been on their defense, but the Horned Frogs have put up 40.7 points per game, good for a third-place tie with Texas. Boise hasn't played a defense as tough as TCU's, and that will make the difference. Last year, when these teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl, TCU won, 17-16. This year, they have a better offense, and that should make for a higher score.
Pick: TCU 38 - Boise State 24

NFL Sunday Recap - End of the Regular Season Edition!

Ok, so after taking a week off for the post-Christmas/New Year period, its time to look at some playoff teams:

NFC Top Seeds:
New Orleans Saints
The Saints looked great for 14 weeks, the terrible the last three. Of course, they weren't helped by sitting Drew Brees this week. They managed to finish in the top six of every major team offensive category, but 20th or worse in every defensive category. Their plan should have been to work on their mistakes in the final game of the season, then take the week off. Instead, the rested players and lost to the Carolina Panthers, 23-10. They have two weeks to fix things now, but that also means two weeks for rust to collect. The only good knews they have right now is that they can't play Dallas, the team that gave them their first loss, as their first opponent. That news actually isn't all that great when you consider that their potential opponents are Green Bay, Philly, and defending NFC Champ Arizona.

NFL Week 17 Preview

NY Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings, -9
o/u: 47.5
The Vikings have been terrible the last few weeks. They've lost three of their last four games, their last two to the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for 100-yards in their last six games. Lucky for them that the Giants have nothing to play for. Last week, with their season on the line, they layed down for Carolina, losing 41-9. They've already put Brandon Jacobs and Aaron Ross on the IR, ending their seasons, and it looks like everyone besides Eli Manning wants to take the week off, too. Minnesota should take this one easy heading into the playoffs.
Pick: Vikings 30 - Giants 10